Aditya Shejwal

slow-paced sustainable growth #stockmaster #adityashejwal

[Aditya Shejwal @StockMaster1011]

"Never be afraid to make a mistake, but only make one which you can afford, so that you'll live to make another."
- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

SEBI PROPOSES OPENING DIRECT MARKET ACCESS TO RETAIL IN MAJOR TECH RULE OVERHAUL

SEBI proposes extending Direct Market Access (DMA) to all investors, including retail participants, beyond institutional investors.

DMA in the commodity derivatives segment proposed to be expanded to all eligible users.

Regulator plans to consolidate and modernize technology and cybersecurity regulations for market infrastructure institutions.

Proposal aims to improve market access, streamline technology governance, and strengthen the regulatory framework.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Pentagon delayed publicly announcing US strikes on Iran until after the US stock market had closed at 4 PM ET on Friday, per NBC News.

The timing of the announcement was reportedly intended to "reduce the immediate impact on financial markets."

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

CHINESE HEDGE FUNDS WARN AI ‘SUPER BUBBLE’ NEARS BURSTING POINT

Two prominent Chinese hedge fund managers are warning that the global AI rally has entered a “super bubble” phase and may be approaching a major correction.

Main points from the Bloomberg report shown:

Wealspring Asset says global AI stocks have become a “super bubble” and believes a collapse is possible, even if the exact timing is uncertain.
Shanghai Banxia Investment Management says the conditions for an AI bubble to burst have already emerged.

At least four other Chinese hedge funds have also turned cautious on AI investments.

Their concerns center on:
Extremely rich valuations after the sharp rally in AI-related stocks.
The possibility that many AI infrastructure companies lack durable long-term competitive advantages (economic moats).
Investor expectations that may have become overly optimistic.

[Kapil Sibal @KapilSibal]

MEA
June 24, 2026 :

“A passport is a travel document, and not a document of citizenship.”

Which document then is proof of citizenship?

BLO can doubt my citizenship
Deprive me of my vote

Result

BJP wins the election

Over to Supreme Court !

[Anurag Shukla @Anuraag_Shukla]

A good article in @FT captures a growing regulatory problem in India’s retail investing boom: financial influencers are selling stock-market dreams under the language of education, while regulators are struggling to keep up.

[The Knowledge Archivist @KnowledgeArchiv]

"A good man without strength is only hoping evil has mercy."

— Sun Tzu, The Art of War

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Equity Returns Estimates for FY27

2000 to 2024: P/E multiples went from 11x to 22x. EPS Growth: 9% CAGR. Equity Returns: 12% CAGR. Now P/E cannot go from 22x to 44x. So, equity returns must be solely funded by EPS Growth.

PE Expansion Era Is Over

a. PPFAS Rajeev Thakkar told ET: “People must get accustomed to lower equity returns now.” Why is the seller himself saying: “My product is no longer attractive?”

b. From 2000 to 2024, Indian equities delivered 12% CAGR returns for two reasons:

(1) EPS Growth was 9% CAGR; and (2) PE multiples doubled from 11x to 22x because investors were betting on India growth story. (So, doubling of the multiple roughly added 3% CAGR on top of EPS Growth of 9% CAGR.)

c. Now that engine of PE expansion cannot run again because there is no mind-blowing India growth narrative anymore. So, going forward, equity returns must be funded almost entirely by EPS Growth (plus dividend yield) alone.

Equity Returns Formula

Total Equity Return = EPS Growth + PE Multiple Change + Dividend Yield

EPS Growth =
Corporate Earnings Growth

PE Multiple Change =
PE Expansion or Contraction
(What multiple the investors are willing to pay per rupee of earnings)

Nifty EPS Growth in FY27

FY25: Est 15%; Actual 3.4%
FY26: Est 12%; Actual 4.5%
FY27: Estimated 8.5%

Note: 8.5% is Bank of America (BofA) estimate, which is the most trusted.

Dividend Yield for Nifty 50 = 1.20% (historic low)

Total Equity Return in FY27

SCENARIO 1: BULLS ARE RIGHT

EPS Growth: 11%
(Beats BofA estimates)

PE Change: 0%
(Nifty PE stays 22x)

Dividend Yield: 1.2%

Total Equity Return = EPS Growth + PE Multiple Change + Dividend Yield

= 11% + 0% + 1.2%
= 12.2%

SCENARIO 2: BASE CASE

EPS Growth: 8.5%
(Matching BofA estimates)

PE Contraction: -1.5%
(Mild downward PE revision)

Dividend Yield: 1.2%

Total Equity Return:
= 8.5% - 1.5% + 1.2%
= 8.2%

SCENARIO 3: BEARS ARE RIGHT

EPS Growth: 4%
(Below BofA estimates)

PE Contraction: -10% (not 10x)

Dividend Yield: 1.2%

Total Equity Return =
= 4% - 10% + 1.2%
= -4.8% (Negative Return)

Equity Risk Premium (ERP)

ERP is the additional gain (compared to fixed income) for bearing the financial risk + psychological stress of investing in a volatile asset.

Is it Worth the Pain?

BULL CASE

Equity Return: 12.2%
Less LTCG: 12.5%
Net Return: 10.68%

FD return: 7%
Less Tax: 30%
Net Return: 4.9%

ERP = 10.68% – 4.9%
= 5.78%

BASE CASE

Equity Return: 8.2%
Less LTCG: 12.5%
Net Return: 7.18%

FD return: 7%
Less Tax: 30%
Net Return: 4.9%

ERP = 7.18% - 4.9%
= 2.3%

Strategy for Retail Investors

a. If you are a bull, it is worth going 100% into equities because the Risk Premium (Extra Gain) is 5.78% over & above FDs, which will strongly compound over time.

b. If you believe the base case, then a small risk premium (extra gain) of 2.3% may not be worth the pain if you are investing for less than 5 years.

Over a long period, this small premium will also compound. But for below 5 yrs horizon, the pain-reward ratio looks poor.

c. For bears and believers in the base case scenario, it may be best to diversify into gold, FDs, and selective equities.

Gold can give superior returns (than 2.3% CAGR). Cash can deliver life-changing returns if the market crashes and you are the only buyer in town.

d. Extraordinary returns can still be made in this market if you are a good stock researcher, and have the temperament to stay invested, come hell or high water. Most people overestimate their ability.

Endquote [Original]

A stock circulates on X after the money has been made. If you have found a stock on X, you have not discovered it. You have been introduced to it.

@arabicatrader

[Wisdom Stoics @WisdomStoics]

We're Men!!!

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

THE RBI WAS FORCED TO PUMP A STAGGERING ₹1.41 LAKH CRORE INTO BANKS TO PREVENT A SUDDEN CASH CRUNCH. AS GST PAYMENTS DRAIN LIQUIDITY FROM THE MARKET

[liminal @Liminal1988]

I'll keep becoming more

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

SOUTH KOREA MARKET PLUNGES AS LAWMAKERS FLOAT TAX ON UNREALIZED STOCK GAINS

‘BLACK TUESDAY’ IN KOREA AFTER PROPOSAL TO TAX PAPER PROFITS

SOUTH KOREA CONSIDERS TAXING UNSOLD STOCK GAINS, SPARKING MARKET SELLOFF

Seoul Economic Daily: “Korean Lawmakers, Civic Groups Push to Tax Unrealized Gains” — reports that lawmakers from multiple parties and civic groups held a National Assembly forum on June 23 advocating discussion of taxing unrealized gains from real estate and stocks. The article notes the proposal is at the forum/discussion stage and not yet government policy.

[Aditya Shah @AdityaD_Shah]

Rajeev Thakkar and PPFAS speak the truth,

He now assumes 15-20% returns will be history now,
10-12% returns will now be the base case,

Do you think 10-12% is the new reality?

[Jay Yang @Jayyanginspires]

Sam Altman on how to get rich:

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

SEBI WILL NOW ALLOW BILLIONAIRE CELEBRITIES TO ENDORSE STOCKBROKERS AND MUTUAL FUND BRANDS

[Kunal Shah @kunalb11]

It’s been a minute.

2015–2018
- Exited FreeCharge. Spent time learning and investing.
- Pondered about: Why can't trust be rewarded? Started with $1M of personal capital.
- Launched CRED to reward people for paying credit card bills on time.

2019–2025
- Built a system run by a team that values ownership, judgment, and craft.
- Grew from 0 to 17M members by aligning incentives with behaviour.
- Built several products during COVID lockdowns.
- Raised $900M+ from global investors. Did 4 ESOP buybacks.
- Made Indiranagar and IPL ads slightly more interesting.
- Received a full stack of regulatory licences.
- Lost 35 kilos.
- Scaled from 0 to ~$325M ( ~₹3,200 crore) in annual revenue across payments, lending, insurance, commerce, wealth, and credit cards.
2026
- First profitable quarter (yet occasionally asked what our business model is)
- Raised another $900M from Meta in primary and secondary capital.
- Announcing our 5th ESOP buyback.

Today

CRED is ready for its next phase. I am stepping back and @miten steps in as interim CEO, partnered with an incredibly talented team. He has been heading strategy and finance and suffering me since 2020. I’m stepping away from the operating role and will continue as a shareholder. My commitment doesn’t change. Just the role.

Extremely grateful to our members, partners, regulators, and investors who made this possible. And to our board, Shailendra, Micky, Saurabh for their extraordinary conviction.

Team CRED, I’ll still expect you to be a 10x version of yourselves.

As for me, I’ll be joining Meta to lead WhatsApp globally.

Meta comes in as a minority investor in CRED. No access to member data.

While it’s come very far, the delta between WhatsApp today and its full potential is massive. I look forward to working with Mark, Chris, and the leadership across Meta for the next step in WhatsApp’s journey. Will, thank you for scaling something the world relies on quietly, and for making this transition smooth.

Onwards.

[Deedy @deedydas]

The founder of Indian startup Cred, Kunal Shah, will be global head of the most used daily product in the world (2.3B+ DAU), WhatsApp!

Let’s take a look at the business of Cred:

Cred’s valuation has flip-flopped from its peak but in 8yrs, they built a $4.5B biz with ~1000 employees doing $333M/yr growing 17%yoy, with Meta buying 20% of it for $900M. Kunal says they’ve hit they’re first quarter of operating profit (exact loss numbers for FY26 here are speculative) but the business is definitely trending up. Cred has ~17M users and 12.6M monthly transacting users at $26 per user per year ARPU (~₹2500). 1% of Indians use Cred, 1 in 3 of the country’s credit card users. Credit card penetration in India is 3-4% vs say 66% in the US, 50%+ in high income and 25%+ for other lower/middle income countries; perhaps if that grew more quickly, the business would have an even better outcome. When I analyzed it in 2022, I was too harsh about its future prospects. The business has grown significantly since with a path to sustainability.

More importantly, this is the first time I’ve seen a non-silicon valley founder catapulted to lead such a critical product. Think what you may of Cred, it was a big bet that’s come off quite well. And this appointment is just testament to Kunal’s tenacity as a founder and leader.

[Prompter @PromptLLM]

Crazy take from Claude

[Jon Erlichman @JonErlichman]

A headline from 2007.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

New footage captures the moment the Iranian delegation supposedly left the negotiation venue in Switzerland in "protest" over President Trump's threats

VP JD Vance proceeds to speak with Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif following the Iranians' exit.