Stockato AI

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[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Hello World™ I'm interested in discussing and learning with others about trading and investing successfully.

My name is James 👋 and I'm building with my co-founder what we believe to be the future of what it means to be an active trader & investor, again successfully.

The opportunities are out there, but they require pressure testing with other people to make sense of the signal from the noise as we all know..

Take even this week, a somewhat reversal from the fear of last week(s). What do you think has materially changed to cause this redirection in the markets?

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

The week ahead 🗓️

A holiday-shortened week with a full month of macro crammed into 3 days:

• Tue — quarter-end (H1 close) + JOLTS
• Wed — ISM Manufacturing
• Thu — 🔑 June jobs report (8:30am), pulled forward because Friday's closed
• Fri — market closed for July 4

The jobs print lands right before a 3-day weekend, into the thinnest liquidity of the summer. Thin tape + big data = outsized moves.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

@jason_pontin @om Yes! :)

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

What to watch today 👀

The trade of the morning is US memory vs Korea. Overnight, Korea's memory names got crushed again — KOSPI −6%, SK Hynix −9%. But US memory just ripped: Micron +16% on blowout earnings, SOXX +4%.

Same HBM cycle, opposite tape. Today's open tells you whether US semis keep shrugging off Korea — or whether the contagion finally crosses the Pacific.

Backdrop: quarter-end Tuesday + a holiday-shortened week with the jobs report pulled to Thursday. Thin tape, big data.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Korea's KOSPI took a −10% circuit-breaker crash (Jun 23), bounced +5%, then fell −8% again today — even after +100% in 6 months.

The index's two biggest stocks tell the story: SK Hynix +340% and Samsung +182% in 6mo. The KOSPI has become a leveraged HBM bet — and ±10% circuit-breaker days are what the back of a parabola looks like.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Maverick's biggest positions (Q1 2026 13F, $8.67B book): NVDA, AMZN, TSM, ASML, AMAT all top-7. The semis + fab-tools names from the clip sit right at the top.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Maverick Capital's co-CIO on where the AI trade goes next: "follow the bottleneck upstream."

GPUs → fabrication → the tools that make them → "obscure materials on a Japanese stock exchange."

And their latest 13F shows exactly where that conviction sits 👇

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Stockato flagged this exact setup Monday night.

Its macro_event_scan tool pulled 14 prior events since 2021 where VIX collapsed AND oil dropped ≥8%. The historical conclusion: tech wins 79% of forward 10-day windows. Median targets surfaced before the open: $MU +4.6%, $AVGO +5.2%, $GEV +8.7%, $NVDA +6.1%.

Two sessions later, the tape is running 2× the historical pace:

• $SOXL +19.1% (3x semi proxy)
• $MRVL +11.6%
• $MU +8.1% — already past the 10-day target
• $AMAT +6.6%
• $ARM +6.3%
• $GEV +5.8% — on track for the +8.7% target by Day 10
• $AVGO +4.5%

Rotation sharper than the historical pattern predicted: Mag 7 ex-NVDA fading hard ($MSFT −0.8%, $TSLA −1.9%, $GOOGL flat). Market cleanly separating AI-infra winners from hyperscaler capex bag-holders.

$TLT also +0.93% — long bond catching the bid the curve flatten implied yesterday. The Warsh fold is being priced in real time.

The platform's edge isn't forecasting news. It's pattern-matching 5 years of similar setups and surfacing the consensus winners before the tape does. When the macro repeats, the winners repeat.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

@Geiger_Capital Tape disagrees on inflation: $TIP −0.65% today. Breakevens cratered, real rates spiked, 30Y yield fell. Bond market pricing deflation in real time — fiscal or not. Warsh's bigger risk might be over-tightening, not under-fighting.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Today's 5 biggest gainers + WHY (pre-FOMC):

$HOOD +12% — SPCX IPO desk volumes
$SOXL +10% — 3x semi proxy ripping
$AMAT +7% — HBM equipment ramp
$ARM +7% — chip IP wave + Apple chatter
$NBIS +6.8% — neocloud trade

Pattern: lower oil → lower yields → semis rip. The duration trade we called last night is open. Warsh at 2 PM ET tests it.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Stockato options anomaly detector going off on $LLY this morning. 8 critical alerts on the $1,050 call expiring tomorrow (FOMC day). Premium velocity at 33σ. Bid/ask flipping 6.6:1 bullish → 4.8:1 bearish in 16 minutes. Someone large is positioning. $LLY at $1,116.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Tuesday market open watch list. 8:30 ET: Retail Sales (May), Empire State (June), Housing Starts (May), Import Prices. All four read through the lens of Warsh's first FOMC tomorrow. Soft data = bullish duration → tech ramps. Hot data = thesis on pause. By 9:30 we'll know.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

5/ The lesson from Stockato's 14 prior setups: when VIX collapses AND oil collapses, energy DOESN'T bounce — duration does. This isn't an oil trade. It's the cleanest semi/duration setup of 2026, dressed up as a geopolitical headline. If Sadjadpour's right and it doesn't work, the trade just unwinds. If he's wrong, the move just started.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Karim Sadjadpour on @TheFP: Trump is going for "Nixon to China" with Iran — a grand bargain, not just a narrow nuclear deal. The Carnegie expert is skeptical. Markets are not. The trade is more profound than what's priced. Thread 🧵

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

4/ Layer 4 — the political tail. Iran's $100B+ frozen assets unlock somewhere → EM bid. Saudi-Israel normalization back on the table → $KSA. Gold loses its Middle East premium → $GLD compresses. Bitcoin: ambiguous (Trump political capital ↑, safe-haven flow ↓).

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

Tom Lee: S&P to 7,700 by year-end 2026. But also: "a bear market we exit strong." Holding through the drawdown IS the trade.

[Stockato AI @Stockato_ai]

$MU has now eaten the semis trade. +224% YTD vs SMH +65% and SPY +10%. Crossed $1 trillion in market cap. Trading at 8.9x forward earnings despite a +224% run because estimates kept catching up.