Hello Worldโข I'm interested in discussing and learning with others about trading and investing successfully.
My name is James ๐ and I'm building with my co-founder what we believe to be the future of what it means to be an active trader & investor, again successfully.
The opportunities are out there, but they require pressure testing with other people to make sense of the signal from the noise as we all know..
Take even this week, a somewhat reversal from the fear of last week(s). What do you think has materially changed to cause this redirection in the markets?
The week ahead ๐๏ธ
A holiday-shortened week with a full month of macro crammed into 3 days:
โข Tue โ quarter-end (H1 close) + JOLTS
โข Wed โ ISM Manufacturing
โข Thu โ ๐ June jobs report (8:30am), pulled forward because Friday's closed
โข Fri โ market closed for July 4
The jobs print lands right before a 3-day weekend, into the thinnest liquidity of the summer. Thin tape + big data = outsized moves.
What to watch today ๐
The trade of the morning is US memory vs Korea. Overnight, Korea's memory names got crushed again โ KOSPI โ6%, SK Hynix โ9%. But US memory just ripped: Micron +16% on blowout earnings, SOXX +4%.
Same HBM cycle, opposite tape. Today's open tells you whether US semis keep shrugging off Korea โ or whether the contagion finally crosses the Pacific.
Backdrop: quarter-end Tuesday + a holiday-shortened week with the jobs report pulled to Thursday. Thin tape, big data.
Korea's KOSPI took a โ10% circuit-breaker crash (Jun 23), bounced +5%, then fell โ8% again today โ even after +100% in 6 months.
The index's two biggest stocks tell the story: SK Hynix +340% and Samsung +182% in 6mo. The KOSPI has become a leveraged HBM bet โ and ยฑ10% circuit-breaker days are what the back of a parabola looks like.
Maverick's biggest positions (Q1 2026 13F, $8.67B book): NVDA, AMZN, TSM, ASML, AMAT all top-7. The semis + fab-tools names from the clip sit right at the top.
Maverick Capital's co-CIO on where the AI trade goes next: "follow the bottleneck upstream."
GPUs โ fabrication โ the tools that make them โ "obscure materials on a Japanese stock exchange."
And their latest 13F shows exactly where that conviction sits ๐
Stockato flagged this exact setup Monday night.
Its macro_event_scan tool pulled 14 prior events since 2021 where VIX collapsed AND oil dropped โฅ8%. The historical conclusion: tech wins 79% of forward 10-day windows. Median targets surfaced before the open: $MU +4.6%, $AVGO +5.2%, $GEV +8.7%, $NVDA +6.1%.
Two sessions later, the tape is running 2ร the historical pace:
โข $SOXL +19.1% (3x semi proxy)
โข $MRVL +11.6%
โข $MU +8.1% โ already past the 10-day target
โข $AMAT +6.6%
โข $ARM +6.3%
โข $GEV +5.8% โ on track for the +8.7% target by Day 10
โข $AVGO +4.5%
Rotation sharper than the historical pattern predicted: Mag 7 ex-NVDA fading hard ($MSFT โ0.8%, $TSLA โ1.9%, $GOOGL flat). Market cleanly separating AI-infra winners from hyperscaler capex bag-holders.
$TLT also +0.93% โ long bond catching the bid the curve flatten implied yesterday. The Warsh fold is being priced in real time.
The platform's edge isn't forecasting news. It's pattern-matching 5 years of similar setups and surfacing the consensus winners before the tape does. When the macro repeats, the winners repeat.
@Geiger_Capital Tape disagrees on inflation: $TIP โ0.65% today. Breakevens cratered, real rates spiked, 30Y yield fell. Bond market pricing deflation in real time โ fiscal or not. Warsh's bigger risk might be over-tightening, not under-fighting.
Stockato options anomaly detector going off on $LLY this morning. 8 critical alerts on the $1,050 call expiring tomorrow (FOMC day). Premium velocity at 33ฯ. Bid/ask flipping 6.6:1 bullish โ 4.8:1 bearish in 16 minutes. Someone large is positioning. $LLY at $1,116.
Tuesday market open watch list. 8:30 ET: Retail Sales (May), Empire State (June), Housing Starts (May), Import Prices. All four read through the lens of Warsh's first FOMC tomorrow. Soft data = bullish duration โ tech ramps. Hot data = thesis on pause. By 9:30 we'll know.
5/ The lesson from Stockato's 14 prior setups: when VIX collapses AND oil collapses, energy DOESN'T bounce โ duration does. This isn't an oil trade. It's the cleanest semi/duration setup of 2026, dressed up as a geopolitical headline. If Sadjadpour's right and it doesn't work, the trade just unwinds. If he's wrong, the move just started.
Karim Sadjadpour on @TheFP: Trump is going for "Nixon to China" with Iran โ a grand bargain, not just a narrow nuclear deal. The Carnegie expert is skeptical. Markets are not. The trade is more profound than what's priced. Thread ๐งต
4/ Layer 4 โ the political tail. Iran's $100B+ frozen assets unlock somewhere โ EM bid. Saudi-Israel normalization back on the table โ $KSA. Gold loses its Middle East premium โ $GLD compresses. Bitcoin: ambiguous (Trump political capital โ, safe-haven flow โ).
$MU has now eaten the semis trade. +224% YTD vs SMH +65% and SPY +10%. Crossed $1 trillion in market cap. Trading at 8.9x forward earnings despite a +224% run because estimates kept catching up.