Stockpicking Analysis

97% Value investor - 3% Speculater.
Searching for 5–10x Turnaround opportunities.
Not investment advice.
Do your own DD.
Don't be a copy cat.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

Learn, Search, & Research.
Rule 1 - Don't lose money.
Rule 2 - Aim to compound at the highest profit possible.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

If $SPWH changed its name to Sportsman Warehouse https://t.co/SLCli8gtyh, the stock would 10x.

That's the state of the current market.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

Any $SPWH bears left??

Hunt — $SPWH's core business has had 5 consecutive Q of growth, Fish 11

~80% of Q1 2026 sales posted ~5.5–7.5% growth

When $SPWH stops the bleeding in apparel footwear camping others, they're already at 5–6% growth

Momentum and ST funds lost the LT plot

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

$SPWH Solid ER in almost every part of the business.
YoY debt down ~$15M, inventory down ~$25M.

Hunt, which is their core business, up 7.4%, IMHO is the strongest evidence that the turnaround has succeeded.

I guess Mgmt is afraid to give strong guidance after Q4 2025.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@LiebermanAustin 1. One of the dumbest comments ever on bubbles
I've never heard of someone who went BK by playing defense. But there are millions of people who went BK when the bubble popped.
2. The media lies by omission when it suggests that saying there’s a bubble means sell all your holdings

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

The second dumbest theory academia ever vomited into markets, right after the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
Is the idea that massive passive investing doesn’t distort markets.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

The market is starting to understand the $HPP turn-around.
If @spencerpratt wins the LA elections, you can imagine what that would mean for $HPP

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@dampedspring I agree with you - Galbraith, in his book A Short History of Financial Euphoria, claims that all bubbles end with a sudden snap.
The Nifty Fifty bubble didn't snap but eroded over time after the 1974 crash, but also then there was a sudden crash.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@_Lojo7272_ @skewpilot @dampedspring Well said - The fact that these kind of post are pissing people off, is very important, becuase it tells us that the newbies are still in the denial stage. The bubble pops only when there are more sellers than buyers, so we're not there yet.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@dampedspring Agree, I'm just saying that there should be a huge gap between when a smart investor like you comes to a conclusion and when the inexperienced retail investor realizes it.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

Earnings growing like crazy, is a sign of a bubble not good at all.
When the spending frenzy is at peak, of course earnings will be up like crazy.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@KHerriage I’m not sure IPO activity is a good comparison to 2000.
1. Over the past few decades, the number of public companies has steadily declined, and far fewer companies are seeking to go public.
2. PE today is an entirely different beast, with way more capital.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

I'm so happy I found @dampedspring, this guy is a treasure. Tons of knowledge, with full posts, not “go check my $300 Substack” guy.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

The Internet boom and bust - a story part 1. Like all things there are similarities to today and differences.

My own experience during 1995-2002 year by year with highlights.

Before I jump in I was NOT an investor during this time. I worked on the sell side.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@cullenroche Good god, pointing out the return at the hight of a bubble.
In 4 years, we'll find out what the return will be over a span of 30 years.

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am the Chairman and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust. Eighty-four years old. Seven buildings in Midtown Manhattan. I said what I said.

I said "tax the rich" is the equivalent of a racial slur. I said it at REBNY. Into the microphone. Eight hundred people. Median net worth in that room was north of $240 million, I know because our CFO ran the guest list through a Bloomberg terminal as a joke, and then it wasn't a joke. And when I said it, twelve people applauded. The rest nodded. One woman in the third row mouthed, "Finally." I saw her.

Sharon, my communications advisor, Columbia, $430,000 a year, very bright, Sharon wants me to walk it back. She drafted something. "Mr. Roth's comments were intended to highlight the emotional impact of political rhetoric on business communities." I read it. I put it in the trash can on my desk. Not the recycling. The trash. Here's my clarification: I understated it.

"Tax the rich" is worse than a slur. A slur is just a word. It doesn't come with a CBO score. Nobody is introducing a bill called the Racial Slur Implementation Act of 2026. But there are seventeen active proposals in Congress, I had Sharon count them, seventeen proposals designed to take more of my money. My money. Mine. Money I acquired by being better at acquiring Manhattan commercial real estate than anyone alive for four consecutive decades. That is not a crime. That is a record.

I pay property taxes on $18.2 billion in assessed assets. $412 million a year. Say it again: four hundred and twelve million. I carry that number. It's the first thing I think about when I see a protest sign. I think: I pay more in property tax than the entire annual budget of the city of Fort Lauderdale. I looked this up. Fort Lauderdale: $408 million. Steve Roth: $412 million. I am a small city. And the city doesn't get screamed at.

My effective tax rate last year was 11.4 percent. I say this because I believe in transparency and because I'm not ashamed of it. The rate reflects the legal structure of real estate investment trusts, depreciation schedules Congress established in 1986, and carried interest provisions that both parties have voted to preserve for forty years. I did not write these laws. I organized my entire financial existence around them with the help of nine full-time tax professionals who have offices on the 38th floor of 888 Seventh Avenue, which I also own. Their office is in my building. Their work protects my buildings. This is not a loophole. Sharon calls it a loophole. I've told her: a structure maintained by nine attorneys across four decades is not a loophole. A loophole is something you slip through once. This is architecture. This is the foundation. This is the building.

Last Tuesday, same as every Tuesday, I walked past 1290 Sixth Avenue. My building. And there was a man. Same man as last week. Same sign: "Billionaires Pay Your Fair Share." He was standing on my sidewalk. My literal sidewalk — my company owns the ground lease. He was maybe thirty. He was wearing a jacket I would estimate cost $60. My lunch that day was $114. For one. I am telling you this not to boast but because these are facts. He has decided I'm his enemy. Based on a number he saw on a Forbes list. He doesn't know what I pay. He doesn't know what my buildings cost this city in construction jobs and lease revenue and foot traffic. He knows one number. He has made one judgment.

I see him every Tuesday. I've started to notice things. He brings coffee from the cart, not the Starbucks. He has a backpack that looks heavy. He doesn't look unhealthy. He looks like he probably works somewhere, but not on Tuesdays. I've wondered: does he have a job? Does he have a building? Does he have anything that depends on him the way 4,200 employees depend on me? I suspect not. And yet he has opinions about my tax rate.

I gave $22 million to charity last year. The Met. NYU Langone. Mount Sinai. I gave a building to NYU. Not money for a building — a building. The Steven Roth Residence Hall. It houses 400 students. That man with the sign has never housed 400 students. He hasn't housed one. He gives cardboard. I give structures. This is not a comparison I'm making to flatter myself. It's just arithmetic.

When I said what I said at REBNY, I was saying what every person in that room believes and none of them will say publicly because they have communications advisors and the communications advisors all went to Columbia and they all say "unhelpful." I'm eighty-four. I'm too old for helpful. I'm too old to perform restraint for people who hate me for something I can't change.

I didn't choose to be rich. I chose to be good at one thing for a very long time, and this is what happened. You don't punish someone for that. You don't legislate against someone for that.

My net worth fluctuates between $3.8 and $4.1 billion depending on the quarter. I fluctuate more in a fiscal week than that man on my sidewalk will earn in his life. Both of these are facts. Only one of them is considered polite to say.

They want me to apologize.

I'll be dead in ten years. Twenty if I'm lucky. And they'll still be renting my buildings.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

Any $HPP bears...

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

Any $HPP bears left that still think the company hasn't turned around.
I've spoken to a few CRE brokers in the SF area a couple of months ago, and they told me that the market is rebounding.
1 broker told me then that he bought $HPP as he's sure the market has hit rock bottom.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@pernasresearch This is exactly why it always pissed me off when Munger said that Graham himself said that 50% of his returns came from just one stock.

Add to that, great investors don’t just find 100 baggers, it comes after years of experience from hundreds of other investments.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@dampedspring Thanks!
I admit I don’t understand your logic.
I do know, that throughout history, every time there’s been mass euphoria to invest in something, it ended in a crash.
I know for a fact that people worldwide are mortgaging their homes to buy passive S&P index funds.

[Stockpicking Analysis @StockpickingA]

@TeddyGambino No equity investor is willing to bet against the passive investing machine.
When the "massive passive" indexing bubble will burst, it will be nuts.