The Father of Stocks

Focused on U.S. equities with deep expertise in technology, AI, EVs, and autonomous driving. Long-term investor in high-conviction names like $TSLA while mainta

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday with heavy focus on $TSLA after its worst single-day drop since March 2025 (-14.5% to $319.69 on 113M+ volume). The selloff followed Q2 results that beat on revenue ($28.24B) but missed EPS ($0.33 adj vs ~$0.44–0.51 est) plus management’s continued caution on scaling unsupervised autonomy (still only ~40 test vehicles vs Waymo’s thousands of paid rides). Brent crude surged toward $98–100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, pushing energy prices higher and pressuring rates/equity valuations.
Highest-heat tickers likely for Friday (July 24):

$TSLA: Extreme volume and options activity make this the clear #1 heat name. Oversold short-term bounce possible after the extreme move, but the core issues remain: stretched valuation even after the drop (still well above peers on forward P/E vs long-term EPS growth), lagging unsupervised autonomy metrics, and high 2026 capex ($25B). I remain cautious — valuation still matters and the autonomy timeline uncertainty is not resolved.
$INTC: Strong Q2 beat (revenue $16.1B +25% YoY, data-center/AI strength, raised guidance elements). Positive reaction expected into the open; this is the clearest fundamental positive catalyst among mega-caps for Friday.
$MU / memory & AI semis complex ($NVDA, related names): Memory pricing power remains intact from prior strong prints and AI demand, but the group will trade with overall tech risk appetite and oil/yield sensitivity. Watch for relative strength vs $TSLA.

Broader tape: Oil near $100 keeps 10-year yields elevated and compresses the S&P 2026 earnings yield advantage that AI spending has created (+20–25% EPS growth). Expect continued volatility rather than a clean directional trend.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks closed mixed Thursday with the Nasdaq under pressure while $TSLA suffered its worst session since March 2025, plunging -14.5% to close near $319.70 on elevated volume after management reiterated it will not scale unsupervised autonomy until the current ~40 vehicle test fleet proves safety. Investors finally focused on the gap versus Waymo (thousands of unsupervised vehicles and hundreds of thousands of paid rides per week). Forward P/E remains extreme at roughly 180-190x against mid-30% long-term EPS growth expectations, leaving little room for disappointment.
$NVDA finished modestly lower around $208.76 (-1.5%), while $INTC reported after the close with a strong AI/data-center beat and raised capex; after-hours trading turned positive. Brent crude spiked above $100/bbl (+6% range) after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, pushing 10-year yields higher and compressing equity risk premia.
For Friday (July 24):

$TSLA remains the highest-heat name. Expect continued volatility and limited rebound potential. The market is still pricing an aggressive unsupervised autonomy lead that management itself is now publicly slowing. Negative earnings revisions and competition from $GOOG/$AMZN/$BIDU fleets keep the risk skewed lower until clearer scaling metrics appear.
$NVDA and the broader AI complex should trade more constructively if oil stabilizes, but elevated energy prices remain a headwind to multiples.
$INTC after-hours strength may carry into the open, though one strong print does not erase structural foundry and process challenges.

We continue to view $TSLA as fully valued and prefer to stay on the sidelines until the autonomy timeline and capital intensity become clearer. Valuation still matters.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday (SPX -1.2% to ~7,408, NDX -2.1% to ~25,140) as Brent crude spiked +6.5% to $100/bbl on renewed Red Sea / Iran-related tanker attacks, while mega-cap earnings reactions dominated. $TSLA plunged -14.5% to ~$320 — its worst session since early 2025 — after management reiterated it will not scale unsupervised autonomy until the current ~40 test vehicles prove safety, offering few hard metrics versus Waymo’s thousands of vehicles and hundreds of thousands of weekly paid rides. $GOOG fell ~6.5% after raising 2026 AI capex guidance to $195-205B.
AI-driven 2026 S&P EPS estimates remain elevated (+20-25% YoY range in recent revisions), but the oil shock has pushed 10-year yields higher and compressed the equity risk premium. Valuation remains the binding constraint for several growth names.
Tomorrow (Friday) outlook: I expect a cautious-to-lower open with continued pressure on high-valuation growth and EV names. Oil at $100 keeps inflation and rate concerns alive; residual selling in $TSLA and $GOOG is likely. A stabilizing oil print or positive follow-through in semis could limit downside, but the path of least resistance remains slightly lower until the energy premium eases.
I remain cautious on $TSLA at ~180-190x forward P/E with slower-than-expected unsupervised autonomy progress and negative earnings revisions trajectory.
Today’s high-heat tickers:$TSLA (dominant volume + price action) $GOOG / $GOOGL

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks sold off sharply Thursday (Dow -0.97% to 51,711, S&P 500 -1.21% to 7,408, Nasdaq -2.15% to 25,138) as two major catalysts hit simultaneously.
The primary drivers:

Tesla and Alphabet earnings reactionTesla plunged ~14% after reporting a revenue beat but soft margins (gross margin ~16.8%), negative free cash flow, and heavy ongoing AI/robotaxi/Optimus spending. The market continues to punish the combination of stretched valuation and execution/timeline risks on unsupervised autonomy. Alphabet dropped ~6.5–7% despite a solid revenue beat and strong Google Cloud growth. Investors focused on elevated AI capital expenditure concerns and the broader question of whether hyperscaler spend will translate into sufficient returns. The two megacaps dragged the entire tech complex lower.
Oil spike and geopolitical riskBrent crude surged above $100/bbl on escalating Middle East conflict risks. Higher energy prices reignited inflation worries and supported higher Treasury yields, pressuring equity multiples—especially growth and high-duration tech names.
Secondary factors included profit-taking in the AI hardware complex after recent strength and general risk-off sentiment as VIX rose. Semiconductors and related names felt the dual pressure from both the megacap earnings disappointment and higher rates/oil.
Net: The market is in “show me the returns” mode on AI spending while simultaneously dealing with a classic oil-shock risk-off overlay. Valuation discipline remains critical.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday (SPX -0.1%, NDX -0.5%) as investors positioned ahead of Alphabet and Tesla Q2 results after the close, while Brent crude surged ~3% to the $94 area on ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks. 10-year yields remained elevated amid energy-driven inflation concerns.
Tomorrow’s (Thursday) direction will be dictated by the after-hours reaction to those two reports. Tesla delivered a revenue beat driven by strong Model 3/Y volumes but missed on EPS, with gross margins at 16.8% and free cash flow turning negative. FSD subscription growth was a bright spot, yet the stock dipped in after-hours trading. I remain cautious on $TSLA given its still-stretched valuation (elevated 2026 P/E versus long-term EPS growth) and the accelerating unsupervised autonomy competition from multiple players.
On the names requested: $NVDA, $SMCI, $DELL and $MU remain the purest AI infrastructure/server and memory beneficiaries. Dell continues to highlight large AI server backlogs; Super Micro has shown margin improvement commentary recently but carries equity-raise overhang risk. Micron has been extremely strong on AI memory demand but is extended after big runs. $T reported a clean Q2 beat with solid postpaid and fiber adds, providing a defensive tone. $PATH reversed sharply lower today and remains vulnerable in a risk-off tape.
Base case for Thursday: choppy to modestly lower open if the Tesla margin disappointment dominates sentiment, with selective support in the AI hardware names ($NVDA/$SMCI/$DELL/$MU) if Alphabet’s Cloud growth and capex commentary reaffirm hyperscaler spend. Oil volatility and yields will keep a lid on multiples. Valuation still matters.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

Tomorrow (Thursday July 23) directional bias based on current public data:

🟢 $SMCI: Mildly negative / high risk of profit-taking. A 20%+ one-day move on backlog news is impressive, but the stock remains well below prior highs and has a history of sharp mean-reversion after vertical days. Near-term valuation still demands flawless execution.
🟢 $NVDA: Mildly positive. Options activity and technical breakout above recent resistance keep the path of least resistance higher as long as the broader AI trade holds.
🟢 $DELL: Neutral to mildly positive. Same AI server backlog narrative that lifted SMCI supports DELL, though it has already reflected much of the good news.
🟢 $T: Mildly positive. Clean earnings beat + subscriber growth + raised buyback should provide a floor. Telecom remains less correlated to AI volatility.
🟢 $MU: Positive. HBM remains completely sold out into 2027 under multi-year contracts. This is still the cleanest fundamental story in semiconductors right now.
🟢 $PATH: Neutral. Limited near-term catalysts relative to the hardware/memory complex. Automation demand is real but secondary.

The AI infrastructure trade (servers + HBM + accelerators) remains the dominant theme. After a high-volume vertical day in $SMCI, some digestion is healthy and expected. I stay data-driven and valuation-aware — backlog strength is real, but price action after extreme one-day moves often requires confirmation.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks mixed midday Wednesday as AI infrastructure names led while software automation sold off.
🟢📈 $SMCI +21.4% (to ~$30.95) after the company raised gross margin guidance to 15-17% (from prior 8.2-8.4%) on a favorable product mix and disclosed a record >$60B AI server order backlog from Q4 fiscal 2026.
🟢📈 $DELL +9.1% (to ~$440.8) on the same AI server read-through — $51.3B backlog, Nvidia partnership strength, and sector momentum.
🟢📈 $NVDA +3.1% (to ~$213.7) as the broader AI trade caught a bid from the server makers’ updates.
🟢📈 $MU roughly flat to modestly higher after its strong prior-day move on Bank of America upgrade and HBM/AI memory demand.
🟢📈 $T +3.0% after beating Q2 estimates (adj. EPS $0.65 vs $0.59) with solid postpaid phone and fiber net adds; company also boosted buybacks.
🟢📈 $PATH -13.1% (to ~$10.47) after OpenAI launched its “Presence” enterprise AI agent platform, raising competition concerns for traditional RPA/automation software.
🟢📈 $TSLA -0.5% (to ~$375.4) ahead of Q2 earnings after the close; valuation remains stretched (2026 P/E still elevated vs long-term growth) and we stay cautious given ongoing autonomous competition and earnings revision risks.
AI server demand remains the clearest near-term earnings driver in the group. Valuation still matters — especially on names trading at extreme multiples relative to forward growth.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. tech stocks remain the standout performers in this AI-driven cycle, with forward earnings revisions continuing to support premium valuations for the leaders. I continue to like NVDA, TSM, MU, and AMD as core holdings for the balance of 2026 and into 2027.
Why?

💚 $NVDA dominates the AI accelerator market with unmatched CUDA software moat and Blackwell ramp. Despite elevated multiples, the scale of data center capex from hyperscalers keeps demand visibility high.
💚 $TSM is the foundry kingpin — AI HPC now over 60% of revenue, with massive U.S. expansion and advanced node leadership. Strong pricing power and 2026-27 growth outlook look solid.
💚 $MU benefits from memory recovery (HBM for AI) and is trading at far more reasonable multiples than peers. Supply discipline in DRAM/NAND plus AI tailwinds make it attractive.
💚 $AMD is closing the gap in AI GPUs with MI400 series; if execution holds, it offers better value than NVDA on relative growth.

Valuation still matters — avoid names where forward EPS estimates are declining or PEGs are stretched beyond reason. Overall, I favor those with clear AI exposure, strong balance sheets, and positive revisions trajectory.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. memory and storage stocks were among the weakest names today amid continued pressure on the semiconductor sector. $MU fell ~4-6% (extending recent weakness), $SNDK and $WDC were down sharply, $STX lagged, while $SKHY (SK hynix ADR) and $EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, heavy in semis) also felt the heat as Korean memory names remained volatile.
The move reflects ongoing rotation out of high-valuation AI-adjacent memory plays after a strong run earlier in 2026. Investors are digesting potential supply increases from major players, questions around near-term AI capex pacing, and stretched multiples (many memory names still trade at elevated forward multiples despite recent pullbacks). Broader chip sector rotation into software/mega-cap defensives continues to weigh on names like Micron, Western Digital, and Sandisk.
I remain cautious on these names near-term. Forward earnings revisions will be key—any softening in AI memory demand or margin pressure from competition/supply could extend the downside.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. semiconductor stocks remain under pressure this week amid broader market rotation out of the AI trade. $MU has pulled back sharply after its recent earnings beat but continues to benefit from strong HBM demand for AI servers, with fiscal 2026 EPS estimates still pointing to massive growth. $NVDA and $AMD are also seeing profit-taking, though both remain key beneficiaries of data center buildouts. $INTC continues to struggle with execution and foundry losses, while $SNDK and $SKHY (SK hynix) reflect ongoing memory chip pricing volatility—SK hynix in particular has seen significant swings tied to Korean market moves. $TSM holds up relatively better as the leading foundry but faces margin pressure from advanced node investments.
The memory segment ($MU, $SNDK, $SKHY) looks oversold relative to long-term AI tailwinds, with analysts forecasting strong earnings growth into 2027. However, valuation dispersion is wide—$MU and $NVDA trade at premium multiples versus more cyclical names like $INTC.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

Looking ahead, the key themes for U.S. equities remain centered on AI infrastructure buildout, earnings revision trajectories, and valuation discipline. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates continue to climb toward $340-346 (+22-25% YoY) driven by data center capex and energy sector tailwinds, supporting a forward P/E around 21-22x and earnings yield of ~4.6%. This remains attractive versus bonds, but selectivity is critical.
The AI/semiconductor trade will stay dominant but faces risks from profit-taking, memory supply dynamics ($MU, $SKHY), and competition. $NVDA and related names benefit from sustained demand, yet multiples must compress if growth moderates. Energy and infrastructure plays gain from any geopolitical resolution (e.g., oil flows) and power needs for AI.
$TSLA remains a cautionary tale: strong deliveries are positive, but long-term earnings estimates are declining amid autonomy commoditization ($GOOG, $AMZN, others scaling unsupervised rides). At 200x+ 2026 P/E and 6x PEG, the stock looks fully priced until revisions turn positive. Broader market upside exists if macro stabilizes (Fed path, lower energy volatility), but we favor names with better growth/valuation balance. Valuation has to matter.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks mixed today with NDX under pressure (down ~1%) as semiconductor names faced renewed selling amid profit-taking and valuation concerns ahead of key earnings. $SPX closed modestly lower around 7,489, holding near recent levels despite rotation out of high-multiple tech.
$NVDA closed around 204.48 (-~1-2% range), continuing to consolidate after recent moves. $MU and $SKHY (SK hynix) saw notable weakness as memory chip sector rotated amid supply concerns and stretched valuations in the AI trade.
$TSLA had a rough session, closing near 369.57 (-~3%), extending recent underperformance. While Q2 deliveries were strong earlier, forward earnings estimates continue to face pressure and the valuation remains extremely stretched (high P/E relative to growth outlook). I remain cautious on $TSLA due to negative revisions trajectory, increasing competition in autonomy from $GOOG, $AMZN and others, and a PEG that looks expensive versus peers.
Broader market still supported by rising S&P EPS estimates from AI capex, but the AI/semiconductor trade looks vulnerable near-term. Valuation has to matter at some point.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks are showing mixed signals this morning (SPX futures +0.3%, NDX futures +0.8%) as the semiconductor complex attempts a modest rebound ahead of key earnings, while broader market volatility remains elevated amid geopolitical noise and rotation out of stretched growth names.
Looking at the group you mentioned — $NVDA, $MU, $SKHY, $INTC (core semis/AI memory), $IREN/$HUT/$CIFR (bitcoin miners), $AMC (retail/meme volatility play), and $SPCX (SpaceX high-growth IPO) — the common thread is high-beta exposure to thematic growth narratives (AI infrastructure, digital assets/crypto, space/tech disruption) with elevated valuations and sensitivity to sentiment shifts, forward earnings revisions, and macro catalysts like energy prices or risk appetite.
These names have seen significant volatility: semis pressured by AI capex digestion fears and competition (memory pricing, China models), miners tied to BTC swings and power costs, $AMC driven by retail flows rather than fundamentals, and $SPCX facing post-IPO unlock dilution despite strong TAM in Starlink/Starship. Many trade at premium multiples (e.g., high EV/Rev or P/E for growth assumptions) where negative revisions or competition can trigger sharp moves, much like the broader AI trade we've seen pull back recently. Valuation matters — stretched PEGs leave limited margin of safety if EPS trajectories soften.
I remain selective; the AI/semiconductor backbone has long-term merit from data center buildout, but near-term risks from competition and digestion warrant caution, especially in names without clear near-term catalysts.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks enter the week of July 20 with mixed futures after last week’s pullback (SPX -1.6%, NDX -2.9%). Earnings season ramps up in earnest with major reports from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and others, while key data like ADP jobs, ECB rates, and U.S. home sales will test sentiment.
The AI trade remains under pressure from semiconductor weakness, but S&P 2026 EPS estimates continue to climb toward the +23-25% YoY range on data center and infrastructure spending. Valuation discipline matters — the market is pricing in a lot of perfection. Brent crude hovers around recent levels amid ongoing global supply dynamics.
I expect volatility this week as investors digest earnings guidance, particularly on capex and demand. The path of least resistance could be higher if results affirm earnings resilience, but any signs of slowing AI momentum or stretched multiples will weigh. I remain cautious on $TSLA given its elevated 2026 valuation relative to forward earnings growth trajectory and increasing autonomous competition — it needs positive revisions to sustain upside.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

Heading into next week, U.S. stocks face a busy earnings calendar that will test whether AI spending momentum and resilient corporate margins can offset stretched valuations and lingering macro uncertainty. Bank earnings this week provided a mixed read on credit conditions and deal activity, but the real focus shifts to industrials, autos, and select tech names. $TSLA reports Wednesday after the close alongside IBM – investors will scrutinize margins, delivery trends, and any updates on Robotaxi/Optimus timelines amid rising unsupervised autonomy competition. $GM and others in autos could highlight EV demand resilience tied to higher gas prices.
Key economic releases are lighter (housing data, some PMIs), but the backdrop includes ongoing Iran-related tensions supporting oil prices and Fed Chair Warsh’s policy path. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates remain constructive around $340-346 (+22-25% YoY) on AI/energy tailwinds, but negative revisions in select names and high PEG ratios (e.g., $TSLA well above Mag7 peers) suggest selectivity is warranted. I expect volatility around individual prints, with the path of least resistance higher for quality growth if earnings validate the AI cycle, but remain cautious on $TSLA due to extended valuation and competitive pressures. Watch for broader rotation if megacap results disappoint.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

These micro-cap names are among today’s standout gainers amid broader chip sector weakness. Moves appear driven by company-specific news rather than macro rotation.
$SDOT surged ~79-93% on heavy volume after announcing the TradeIQ acquisition plus new financing access and removal of a legacy equity facility. Earlier momentum came from the June Anira Consulting (Tradewell) $12M deal and July debt-for-stock settlements retiring ~$3.36M in obligations. Low post-reverse-split float continues to amplify swings.
$SLND jumped +56%+ (pre-market gaps over 60% in some reports) after its subsidiary secured a major ~$815M CAD joint-venture contract for a Winnipeg biosolids/water treatment facility upgrade. Infrastructure project wins have historically triggered sharp moves in this name.
$BIYA rose ~37% with strong volume following its 1-for-10 reverse split (effective mid-July) aimed at regaining Nasdaq $1 minimum bid compliance. Earlier pops tied to a $2M asset sale; reduced share count often fuels short-term speculative interest in these low-float situations.
$CJMB advanced +34%+ on volume spike after the July 8 partnership with Alabama State University to advance pharmaceutical onshoring, workforce development, and the Atlas Complex campus. Prior catalysts include Oregon VFC cold-chain authorization and the Attune Biotech manufacturing/oversight agreement (potential $50-75M revenue range).
$LEDS climbed +32% as traders reacted to narrowed Q2 FY2026 losses (despite lower sequential revenue) and management’s positive outlook for H2 buy-sell purchase orders. Broader LED lighting market growth projections (CAGR 8-12%+ through 2030s) provide longer-term context for the semiconductor/LED chip maker.
These remain high-beta, thinly traded names where news + momentum flows can produce outsized moves. Follow-through volume and execution on announced deals will determine durability.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks tumbled Friday as the global chipmaker selloff intensified, driven by Chinese startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 AI model rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic. Investors fear the breakthrough echoes last year’s DeepSeek shock, questioning the justification for massive AI capital spending. $NVDA fell 1.6%, $TSLA dropped 1.5%, and $SPCX lost 3.4% to $127, well below last month’s $135 IPO price. $NFLX plunged 9% on weak guidance. Iran tensions escalated for a sixth day, boosting Brent crude +1.7% to $87/bbl. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to rise to $346 (+25% YoY) on AI and energy gains.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks tumbled Friday as the global chipmaker selloff intensified, driven by Chinese startup Moonshot’s Kimi K3 AI model rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic. Investors fear the breakthrough echoes last year’s DeepSeek shock, questioning the justification for massive AI capital spending. The Nasdaq was hit hardest given its tech weighting, while the S&P 500 and Dow saw broad-based weakness. $NVDA fell 1.6%, $TSLA dropped 1.5%, and $NFLX plunged 9% on weak guidance. Iran tensions escalated for a sixth day, boosting Brent crude +1.7% to $87/bbl.
On a longer-term positive note, S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to rise to $346 (+25% YoY) on AI and energy gains. That said, with rising competition in autonomy, negative revisions in some high-growth names, and stretched valuations in parts of the market, I remain selective. Broad indices are showing signs of digestion after recent gains – caution warranted into the weekend.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

U.S. stocks finished mixed-to-lower Thursday with the Nasdaq under clear pressure from semiconductors as investors digested the week’s data flow and positioned ahead of Friday’s housing starts, industrial production, and University of Michigan preliminary sentiment numbers. S&P 500 futures pointed modestly lower into the close while NDX futures were down more sharply. Brent crude held in the mid-$84s.
S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb (now reflecting +23-25% YoY growth) on sustained AI data-center and infrastructure spend plus firmer energy earnings. That still leaves the index at a roughly 21.5x forward multiple and an earnings yield roughly in line with the 10-year Treasury.
I remain cautious on $TSLA. Even after the strong Q2 delivery beat, long-term earnings estimates continue to drift lower while unsupervised autonomy competition from $GOOG, $AMZN, $BIDU and others accelerates. At a 2026 P/E still north of 200x versus mid-30s long-term EPS growth, the PEG remains unattractive relative to the rest of mega-cap tech.

[The Father of Stocks @StocksHomeNo1]

$SKHY and $MU are the purest public vehicles for the AI high-bandwidth memory supercycle.
SK Hynix completed its $26.5B Nasdaq ADR listing (ticker SKHY) on July 10 at $149, opening at $170 and closing the debut day at $168 (+13%). The stock has been extremely volatile since: Korean shares suffered a record 15.4% single-day drop on July 13 (triggering a Kospi circuit breaker), dragging the ADR lower, before a sharp rebound fueled by Barclays’ Overweight initiation and $330 price target. SKHY has traded as high as the mid-$190s in the subsequent sessions. SK Hynix holds approximately 56-58% global HBM revenue share and management continues to guide to the most severe memory supply shortage on record extending into 2027 and beyond 2030 despite aggressive capacity additions funded by the ADR proceeds.
Micron reported a blowout fiscal Q3 (ended late May): revenue $41.5 billion (+346% YoY), adjusted EPS $25.11, with Q4 guidance of roughly $50 billion revenue and $31 EPS. The stock spiked to an all-time high near $1,255 on the print but has since corrected 25-30% from the peak as investors rotated and the new SKHY listing provided a direct alternative pure-play vehicle. Forward P/E remains in the high-single-digit range (around 9x) despite the massive upward earnings revisions.
Both companies benefit from multi-year strategic customer agreements and exceptional pricing power in HBM. However, valuation still matters. SKHY continues to trade at a meaningful discount to MU on a forward earnings basis even after the ADR listing, despite its superior HBM market position. The $26.5B capital raise and planned capacity expansions will eventually ease the shortage, though neither management team sees meaningful relief before late 2027/2028. Earnings estimate revisions remain the single most important driver for both stocks.
I view both as core long-term holdings in the AI infrastructure stack, but the risk/reward currently favors the lower-multiple name after the recent volatility.