Mark Stokes

Former Project 2049; USAF veteran; #SIGINT; former OSD Senior Country Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia; #wedorecover🇺🇲🇹🇼

[Mark Stokes @Stokes2049]

This ain’t hard. The status quo in the TW Strait is the existence of two equally legitimate governments on both sides. A democratic ROC (Taiwan) and an autocratic PRC. US cross-Strait policy needs to reflect a much more accurate representation of this status quo. @amanda_hsiao

[Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 @amanda_hsiao]

Tensions are rising because the fabric of political understandings that has held peace btwn the US, CH and TW for decades is fraying.

Defining the status quo is difficult and can get byzantine. At its core, it involved the parties being willing to set aside differences... 2/

[Project 2049 Inst @Project2049]

NEW EVENT! Join @Project2049 on 3/28 at 10:00am EDT for "Why We Stand with #Taiwan and Allies in the #IndoPacific." This live stream discussion will feature P2049 Chairman #RandySchriver and
@SenDanSullivan, followed by a panel of experts!

RSVP Here: https://t.co/wXakyto7gl

[YANG Kuang-shun 楊光舜 @KuangshunYang]

Proud to see the latest op-ed by @Project2049 team on US-Taiwan defense industrial cooperation. Good work, @Stokes2049, @ColbyFerland, and @Eric_K_Lee!
https://t.co/82qnEmQwCB

[Ian Easton @Ian_M_Easton]

NEW: “A peek at the future of US-Taiwan defense industrial cooperation.” By my esteemed @Project2049 colleagues @Stokes2049 @colby_ferland @Eric_K_Lee https://t.co/FmsaoEDSLg

[Project 2049 Inst @Project2049]

ONE WEEK AWAY from @Project2049's next webinar! Join us Thursday, 10/6 at 2:00pm US EDT for "Chairman #RandySchriver and @DAlexBlumenthal: "A Turning Point in Competition with #China." RSVP & participate in LIVE Q&A: https://t.co/O4uKi2iwqr

[Russell Hsiao @lcrhsiao]

[the bottom line] ...the overwhelming majority [in Taiwan] prefers the status quo, which to them means that the country—the Republic of China (Taiwan)—is already sovereign and independent, negating the need for a change of name or a declaration of de jure independence. 10/

[k0zy @_k0zy]

For the cyber side of the story see both the fantastic FBI indictments (unprecedented with how much detail they had) and my 2018 reporting which pulls it all together (unfortunately later pulled from CS site due to a marketing snafu, NOT inaccuracy) 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/kvpoWToVDi

[Mark Stokes @Stokes2049]

@simonbchen "Uniting with friends, disintegrating enemies, and pulling over those in the middle" is a fundamental mission of the PLA political work system. PLA "enemy work" operations on Taiwan ('45-'50) may be a good case study. Today, this is known as liaison work.

https://t.co/8QXkHoD8ms

[J Michael Cole (寇謐將) @JMichaelCole1]

The #PLA has routinized its naval and aerial presence on the #Taiwan side of the “median line” in the Strait, a tacit demarcation that, for decades, had served as a buffer against provocative adventurism as well as accidents. My latest for the @ProspectF https://t.co/Fa5JQM0Mav

[YANG Kuang-shun 楊光舜 @KuangshunYang]

Sullivan, like many other American officials before him, noted that China's position on Taiwan has changed over the decades while the US one hasn't. My question is why does the US believe that it can maintain the peace and status quo by being irresponsive to China's changes?

[Mark Stokes @Stokes2049]

@KuangshunYang US cross-Strait policy has been driven by process (peaceful resolution, no unilateral change in an undefined status quo, etc) rather than outcome. Status quo is existence of equally legitimate governments on both sides. We need a more accurate representation of this status quo.

[Paul Heer @PaulJHeer]

@ryanl_hass @FT Yet another emphatic reminder that we need to pursue a diplomatic approach to the Taiwan issue and stop thinking about it solely as a military problem.

[Ben Lewis 🇺🇦 @OfficialBen_L]

It's the last day of the month, which means it's time for my first monthly report on Taiwan ADIZ violations.

The big story of the month was @SpeakerPelosi's trip to Taiwan, which was met with large-scale military exercises by the PLA ETC that surrounded the island.

[Elbridge Colby @ElbridgeColby]

Correct. Military deterrence is the predicate. But then there must be a political strategy to induce Beijing to live with it.

[Ian Easton @Ian_M_Easton]

Remarkable and disquieting PLA activity near Taiwan (See excellent open source analysis by @tshugart3 below).

Beijing’s campaign of coercion against Taiwan (Republic of China, ROC 🇹🇼) continues and, absent US pushback, seems likely to intensify & further destabilize the region.

[Alex Joske @alexjoske]

How does the Chinese Communist Party think about external influence work? My latest piece argues that policymakers and analysts need to get on top of this, and worry less how CCP influence relates to received concepts like 'info ops' and hybrid threats. https://t.co/dRwADm1jPG

[Zack Cooper @ZackCooper]

Rich Armitage and I have a new piece today @WarOnTheRocks about how the United States can help Taiwan (and ourselves) by getting the Taiwan Policy Act right.

A quick 🧵 on our main points:

https://t.co/v8gAEBeEag

[James Lin @jamestwotree.bsky.social @jamestwotree]

One of my PhD students, Col. Steve Li, wrote his doctoral dissertation on this conundrum: “Why so little?” https://t.co/nolGUhQoRe A short thread of some of his findings:

[Mark Stokes @Stokes2049]

@jamestwotree @MW08758848 Steve Li served in AIT Taipei's security assistance office. Note his discussion of the US-Taiwan defense relationship and frictions that emerged in the 2007/2008 timeframe.

[Joel Atkinson @Joel_P_Atkinson]

Great piece by @michaelturton "Washington...needs to clearly state...it does not recognize China’s claim to Taiwan...The use of..“acknowledge” to represent [its] position must cease....[its] dangerously misleading [and] makes [it] look weak and confused."
https://t.co/yAqual6eGn