StoneEdgePicks

Data-driven sports betting picks & props 🎯 | Bet smarter with insights, trends, & information to help you craft winning bets 📊🏀🏈⚾

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What an absolute monster day for STONEEDGE PICKS, finishing up 12.35u ✅✅✅

The crazy part is this day could’ve been even bigger.

Tampa Bay blows a 16-3 lead, Warren has two catches changed to rushes that end up costing us by the hook, and Corum misses his rushing total by the hook as well.

Then Bowers gets completely shut out in the first half before rattling off 70 receiving yards in the second half, falling just short of another winner.

Despite all that, we still finish the day up 12.35 units.

We continue to find the right matchups, exploit defensive weaknesses and put ourselves in position to win. Not every break goes our way, but days like this show what we’re building.

Not a sprint, it’s a marathon.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFL #NFLPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #WinningDay

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CASH IT. ✅✅✅

Tyler Herro o28.5 points + assists (-120FD) gets home.

We targeted Herro’s expanded offensive role in Milwaukee, and it pays off. Another winner for STONEEDGE PICKS.

Plenty of basketball left tonight. We keep building.

#StoneEdgePicks #NBA #NBAPicks #SportsBetting #TylerHerro #Bucks

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Air Force -5.5(-110DK) at Wyoming

Love the matchup for Air Force here, especially with the massive advantage its rushing attack has against a Wyoming defense that has struggled to stop the run all season.

Air Force ranks 2nd nationally in rushing offense, averaging 343 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. Wyoming ranks 101st against the run, allowing 172.1 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry.

The Falcons have been even more dangerous since Evan Medders took over at QB. They’ve averaged 434.5 rushing yards in his two starts, and Medders is coming off 152 rushing yards and 3 TDs against UNLV.

Air Force’s option offense puts tremendous pressure on defensive assignments. Wyoming must account for Medders keeping the football, the fullback attacking inside and the pitch option getting outside. One missed assignment can turn into a huge gain.

Another major advantage is third-down efficiency. Air Force converts 52.9% of its third downs, compared with just 33.8% for Wyoming. That difference is significant in a matchup where controlling possession will be critical.

Air Force also averages 36 minutes of possession per game, ranking among the nation’s leaders. Against a Wyoming offense averaging just 18.3 points per game, limiting possessions and forcing the Cowboys to play from behind should work in our favor.

Turnovers are another edge. Air Force averages just 0.7 turnovers per game compared with 1.6 for Wyoming. Protecting the football is especially important in a game where both teams want to establish the run.

Wyoming QB Tyler Hughes is dangerous with his legs, coming off 183 rushing yards and 4 TDs against Northern Illinois. But Air Force has the stronger overall rushing attack, better third-down efficiency and a defense allowing nearly 72 fewer yards per game.

The biggest key here is Air Force controlling the trenches, sustaining long drives and forcing Wyoming to make the most of limited possessions.

I expect Medders and this rushing attack to give Wyoming problems all night. Love Air Force to control the game and cover the number.

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

FREE TNF PLAY

Pop Douglas o17.5 Longest Reception (-108FD)

Douglas has longest catches of 35 and 39 yards in his last two games. Chicago’s man-heavy defense sets up well for his expanded role in the slot.

Our STONEEDGE WCI preliminary projection is 19.4 yards. Just need one catch of 18 tonight.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFLPicks #TNF #Patriots #Bears #PlayerProps #FreePick

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Solid night for us in the NBA as we finish 7-4 and +2.57u with a 21.07% ROI.

Definitely left some units on the board with a couple brutal breaks.

Ware battled foul trouble all night and fouled out early in the 4th. Miller had 18 points + assists in the first half, only to finish with 19 after managing just 1 point and no assists in the second half.

Those are frustrating losses, but we still cash 7 of 11 plays, including both unders, and finish comfortably in the green.

A solid night to build on as we continue developing and adjusting our NBA WCI model. We’re going to learn from every slate, track what works and keep finding value.

It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

#StoneEdgePicks #NBA #NBAPicks #SportsBetting #NBABetting

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Brutal. Fouls out early 4th. Never gave us a chance with foul trouble.

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Free play

Ware o18.5PR

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Free play

Ware o18.5PR

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

🏀 NBA is back.

We finished last season up over 90 units and are ready to build on that success.

Spreads, totals, player props, parlays, first halves, and quarters. We’re focused on finding value across every market.

Join STONEEDGE PICKS today and follow along all season.

https://t.co/GUwMKyjfxb

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Another solid night for STONEEDGE PICKS as we finish up 2.33u with a 4-2 record. ✅✅✅

We cash Commanders +7.5, Kittle receiving yards, Purdy’s longest rush and Rachaad White receiving yards.

Crazy how close we were to a sweep and cashing our +745 parlay. Five of the six legs hit, including Kittle’s TD, but Ekeler finishes with just 4 receiving yards and costs us by the hook.

Still another profitable night, and we keep stacking winning days. Not a sprint, it’s a marathon.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFL #NFLPicks #SportsBetting #PlayerProps #WinningPicks

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Cash it✅✅✅

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Free play:

George Kittle o65.5 rec yards(-114Caesars)

This is one of the better tight end matchups on the board tonight, and Kittle’s production at home makes it even more attractive.

Washington has been getting torched by opposing tight ends, allowing 372 receiving yards through five games. That’s 74.4 yards per game to the position, the 5th most in the NFL. The Commanders have also surrendered seven touchdowns to tight ends, showing just how much they’ve struggled defending the middle of the field.

The overall passing defense hasn’t been much better. Washington is allowing 255 passing yards per game, ranking 29th in the NFL. That’s a significant mismatch against a tight end who can attack linebackers and safeties on crossing routes, seam routes and underneath throws that turn into big gains.

Washington’s aggressive defensive style also plays into this matchup. The Commanders blitz on approximately 38% of opposing dropbacks, one of the highest rates in football. That creates opportunities for Purdy to find Kittle behind the blitz or underneath coverage before he turns upfield.

Kittle has caught 21 passes for 268 yards and four touchdowns this season, averaging 12.8 yards per reception. He’s also generated 151 yards after the catch, which is particularly important against a defense vulnerable to tight ends.

The home splits are another major factor for me. Kittle has cleared this number in 9 of his last 12 home games, averaging 80.3 receiving yards during that stretch. He’s also gone for 80, 82 and 70 yards in his three home games this season.

He was held to just 24 yards against Seattle last week, but this is a much more favorable matchup against a Washington defense that has consistently struggled containing tight ends.

Between the Commanders’ coverage issues, their aggressive blitz tendencies and Kittle’s production at home, I expect him to be a major part of San Francisco’s passing attack tonight.

I’ll back Kittle to clear 65.5 receiving yards.

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Free play:

George Kittle o65.5 rec yards(-114Caesars)

This is one of the better tight end matchups on the board tonight, and Kittle’s production at home makes it even more attractive.

Washington has been getting torched by opposing tight ends, allowing 372 receiving yards through five games. That’s 74.4 yards per game to the position, the 5th most in the NFL. The Commanders have also surrendered seven touchdowns to tight ends, showing just how much they’ve struggled defending the middle of the field.

The overall passing defense hasn’t been much better. Washington is allowing 255 passing yards per game, ranking 29th in the NFL. That’s a significant mismatch against a tight end who can attack linebackers and safeties on crossing routes, seam routes and underneath throws that turn into big gains.

Washington’s aggressive defensive style also plays into this matchup. The Commanders blitz on approximately 38% of opposing dropbacks, one of the highest rates in football. That creates opportunities for Purdy to find Kittle behind the blitz or underneath coverage before he turns upfield.

Kittle has caught 21 passes for 268 yards and four touchdowns this season, averaging 12.8 yards per reception. He’s also generated 151 yards after the catch, which is particularly important against a defense vulnerable to tight ends.

The home splits are another major factor for me. Kittle has cleared this number in 9 of his last 12 home games, averaging 80.3 receiving yards during that stretch. He’s also gone for 80, 82 and 70 yards in his three home games this season.

He was held to just 24 yards against Seattle last week, but this is a much more favorable matchup against a Washington defense that has consistently struggled containing tight ends.

Between the Commanders’ coverage issues, their aggressive blitz tendencies and Kittle’s production at home, I expect him to be a major part of San Francisco’s passing attack tonight.

I’ll back Kittle to clear 65.5 receiving yards.

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

@Donny127195 @ykGelo I’m hoping they change it back because that’s twice now.

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Another prop cashes ✅✅✅

Jaylen Warren o28.5 receiving yards (-113FD) gets home against Tampa Bay.

We targeted the Bucs’ aggressive pressure and the opportunities it creates for running backs underneath. Warren delivers another winner.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFL #Steelers #PlayerProps #SportsBetting

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@ykGelo @Donny127195 They changed it to a rush attempt instead.

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Just kidding. 2nd time they reverse a catch into a rush and he falls on 28 rec yards. 🪝

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Another prop cashes ✅✅✅

Jaylen Warren o28.5 receiving yards (-113FD) gets home against Tampa Bay.

We targeted the Bucs’ aggressive pressure and the opportunities it creates for running backs underneath. Warren delivers another winner.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFL #Steelers #PlayerProps #SportsBetting

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

@mrardikosova Yeah, 2nd time they changed a catch into a rush

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

@Donny127195 I just saw that. Ridiculous. I have to look at that replay and see if it really was a rush. He had a 16 yard catch taken away earlier too

[StoneEdgePicks @StoneEdgePicks]

Jets +7 cashes ✅✅✅

New York falls 26-19 to New England, but we grab the cover in a divisional matchup.

We felt the Patriots were getting too much respect after their blowout win, and the Jets deliver for us.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFL #Jets #NFLPicks #SportsBetting

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Titans +7 cashes outright ✅✅✅

We said Indianapolis had no business laying a full touchdown in a divisional matchup, and Tennessee proves it by winning straight up.

Another great buy-low spot delivers for STONEEDGE PICKS.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFL #Titans #NFLPicks #SportsBetting

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Another one cashes ✅✅✅

Tyler Shough o7.5 longest rush (-127DK) gets home against the Giants.

We targeted his ability to escape pressure and pick up yards against an aggressive defense. Another prop winner for STONEEDGE PICKS.

#StoneEdgePicks #NFL #Saints #PlayerProps #SportsBetting