Stone & McCarthy

An Oxford Economics Company. Independent Economic Research Since 1989

[Oxford Economics @OxfordEconomics]

What is the US economic outlook under President #Biden in 2021?
Our US Chief Economist @GregDaco shares with you the 3 keys themes for the US economy post #Elections.
Watch his analysis to find out more.
#uselection2020 #joebiden

[David Obuchowski, Peugeot Haver & Vax Getter @DavidOfromNJ]

Earlier this week, one of my close friends died. I wrote this remembrance of him for Jalopnik. Thanks @Rory_Carroll, @TheErinMarquis and Norman Mayersohn for getting this out there, and @bypatrickgeorge who had greenlit my first essay on him in ‘18 + @robbholland3 for Sebring

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Trading Today: US Import prices, claims, 30-year auction, Treasury budget statement. O/N flows in Treasuries were thin ahead of ECB https://t.co/nQhArtfq3X

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Trading Today: Non-farm payrolls, U of M sentiment, inventories. Treasuries mixed ahead of payroll data https://t.co/jXddt3C9PR

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

The trade deficit grew more than expected in October. Nominal exports shrunk for a fourth time in 5 months, while imports rose. Moderating global momentum, the stronger dollar,and protectionist trade policies will keep weighing on exports in the near-term. https://t.co/5Cips46NvK

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Trading Today: Packed calendar to follow Wednesday’s market close. Treasuries rallied in Asia O/N but the gains sparked profit-taking in European trading https://t.co/5HrcOXrycZ

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Trading Today: Income and PCE, claims, pending home sales, minutes. Treasuries higher O/N with 10-year dipping below 3% before profit taking kicked in https://t.co/tSHHQZP6JK

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

One of the world's biggest real estate investors is bullish on U.S. housing. https://t.co/xRQP0q1OnF

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

We flagged this possibility early in October: https://t.co/gXQDsPg2uC
Republicans: Ram Through the USMCA Before the Dems Take Over https://t.co/I2wAdC6VS1

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

US #JobsReport: stronger-than-expected 250k jobs in October w/ net revisions flat.
#Wage growth breaches 3% for 1st time since mid-2009 at 3.1% y/y w/ 0.2% m/m rise in #wages.
U-3 unemployment rate steady 3.7% (low since 1969) & labor force participation rate +0.2ppt to 62.9%

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Trading Today: Employment Friday, plus trade and factory orders. O/N action in Treasuries driven by Trump tweets on trade https://t.co/98GjJU3ioq

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Corporate Market Summary for Wednesday: Very active trading;spreads steady,issuance modest https://t.co/Z8bGnI8y53

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Trading Today: Productivity, claims, manufacturing PMIs to offer direction. Bear steepening continued in Treasuries in thin O/N trading https://t.co/pH9yQR9U7Y

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Despite tepid income gains, consumer spending registered a sturdy advance in Sep as consumers dipped into their savings. Headline PCE inflation slowed to 2.0% y/y and core
PCE inflation maintained a 2.0% y/y pace for the fifth consecutive month. https://t.co/iai0IxJI2T

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

We look for Treasury to borrow $756 billion from non-Fed investors over the next two quarters. The Fed will reduce its Treasury holdings by $168 billion over the next two quarters. https://t.co/IqxxML1t7L

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

Details point to weaker #consumer spending ahead:
- 3.1% m/m surge in autos won't repeat (#HurricaneFlorence disruption)
- spending on services flat w/ -1.4% restaurants & hotel (maybe also #hurricane)
- trend for durables 6.4% y/y slowing
- trend for services +2.4% y/y moderate

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

Headline PCE deflator +0.1% & core PCE +0.2% in Sep.
Headline inflation cools to 2.0% from 2.2% while core #inflation well anchored at 2.0% (5th consecutive month)
--> This reports is "par for the course" for the #Fed
--> December rate hike looks likely despite #market volatility

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

US personal income: little softer than expectd (Sep) but household spending still strong:
- disposable income +0.2%
- real disp income +0.1%
- consumer spending +0.4%
- real cons +0.3%
- saving rate fell to 6.2% low since Dec17
Real disp income +2.9% y/y supports real spend +3.0%

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

High yield corporate spreads widest since November 15, 2017. https://t.co/TPgGh44Inw

[Stone & McCarthy @StoneMcCarthy]

Trading Today: Existing home sales, Kaplan and Bostic finish the week. Treasuries zig-zagged overnight but are heading into US trading little changed https://t.co/ZPbuJugAtO