StoneX Trading

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[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

Our latest #GOLD analysis

https://t.co/vKTD5s5J6p

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

#Nasdaq100 breaks trend line with US tech stocks set to extend decline as AI concerns intensify

👉 https://t.co/udXzpsbXT8

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

Australian Dollar Broadly Lower post-Jobs https://t.co/uAn4IlllZV

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

AU unemployment continued to accelerate beyond the RBAs forecast - rising to 4.7%.

A sharp decline of part-time jobs dragged the headling down to -39.3k, and hours worked was also soft.

The Aussie is the weakest FX major as another nail goes into the coffin of another RBA hike.

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

December remains the favoured time for the BoJ to hike, with OIS implying ~62% probability.

So far, we've seen a spike in Tokyo CPI, while import price inflation remains elevated at ~25% y/y. The BoJ's quarterly survey also shows 86.5% of households expect prices to rise over the next five years.

I'm not sure this is enough to get a decent bid for the yen though - unless services inflation and wage growth accelerate, another hike may simply be too well priced to provide much support.

Upcoming tests: national CPI (23 Oct), services PPI (27 Oct), Tokyo CPI (30 Oct) and wages (6 Nov).

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

AUD/USD and AUD/JPY Tease Swing Highs Heading into Jobs Report https://t.co/J6BNWxCAlw

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

#DJIA: US stocks set for CPI test

Everything you need to know 👉 https://t.co/0vrI1X2HLa

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

China's factory gate prices increased to a four-year high of 5% y/y in September, thanks to higher commodity prices and energy costs. CPI remains subdued for now.

Note the Bloomberg Commodity Index remains elevated, suggesting PPI could have further to run, while the Baltic Dry Index points to rising sea freight costs.

It's probably more of a supporting feature for AUD/USD than a saviour at this point. The Aussie is still mulling a potential longer-term head-and-shoulders top.

AUD/USD Q4 Outlook: RBA and Fed Hikes Set the Tone
https://t.co/8fzzStaPLy

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

EUR/USD Outlook: Can Hot CPI Sustain the Stretched US Dollar Rally? https://t.co/lFY02veZLx

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

We know that energy is likely to be a driver behind hotter US inflation - the bigger question is whether it is showing up in other areas, and by how much.

In a few hours, we'll have the answer.

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

USD/CAD, GBP/CAD Price Action Hints at a Potential GBP/USD Bounce https://t.co/hXk3WRubXl

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

#USDJPY could be heading back to 160 next, barring any major intervention

Here's why 👉 https://t.co/ntgqmtKHrJ

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

#EURUSD downside risks persist despite modest recovery

Everything you need to know 👉 https://t.co/Tq6pXa7FHk

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

Gold Hints at Quiet Accumulation Despite Persistent US Dollar Strength https://t.co/Uwr5xYo0Nf

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

#EURUSD on the brink

Everything you need to know 👉 https://t.co/5jMoEB53Tr

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

#GOLD: Dollar strength keeps metal under pressure

More 👉 https://t.co/D89ZezIOHk

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

Recession-vibes on the rise in Brisbane.

We went to purchase a ceiling fan today, and saw a light shop and bed shop next to each other had permanently closed. The mattress shop to their left had a closing down sign.

Literally three in a row.

None of these were SMEs, all were homemaker chains.

Lots of sale signs among the other shops. That may be to compete with Amazon Prime week. But still... It doesn't paint a good picture for consumption.

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

USD/CAD Rally Looks Stretched, But CAD Bears Eye AUD and GBP https://t.co/ipI97eZJnM

[StoneX Trading @StoneX_Trading]

Swissy Attracts Safe-Haven Bets, AUD Shorts Surge to Record High | COT report https://t.co/EMBTmuYwdl

[Matt Simpson @cLeverEdge]

US consumer confidence is back near a record low according to the preliminary Michigan survey. A simialr trend is apparent on the CB report.

It's not too surprising to see inflation expectations tick higher, even if only marginally.

But it's difficult to see the Fed hike much from here. Retail sales this week will be interesting.