Jenna & John

Bond market thoughts from John Pattullo & Jenna Barnard, Janus Henderson. For Professionals. Not advice. (UK) (US)

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

9/ Simply put, we shouldn’t linearly extrapolate current inflation trends and see there is a clear asymmetric payoff here. We should be open to the idea that inflation can come down very fast.

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

1/ We tried modelling out oil’s impact on US inflation going forwards using an approach set out by the St Louis Fed (more info below).

https://t.co/oxDcGDejvs

This thread is for professionals only. This is scenario analysis and not prediction.

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

8/ Below is a table showing the forecasts for the February 2023 print when the base effects get extremely tough. Again, showing a similar message.

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

Check out the latest podcast from Jenna & John: Global Perspectives Podcast, An extreme hatred of bonds… just or unfair?

https://t.co/4Eg7hKdiOS

#JHI #Bonds #StrategicBond

For UK investors only

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

Catch up with Jenna & John with their latest podcast; Global perspectives - no one's listening to the bond market! https://t.co/7d7pw4t4Nn

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

check out the recent Brewin Dolphin podcast where Guy Foster speaks to J & J - which was recorded on the 14th June when we were bullish on bonds, completely against consensus.....

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

As the cyclical reflation frenzy fades we access the post COVID landscape which looks more disinflationary to us: https://t.co/iwxj26YgCL

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

New piece just published per your local website - Reflation Train - arriving on time:- As we head into the predictable spring/summer inflation surge and reopenings, Jenna and John dissect the reflation narrative, sharing interesting views that go somewhat against consensus...

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

Latest podcast from Jenna & John just released: Global Perspectives podcast episode, Reflation: Is This the Real Thing or Just Fantasy? The pair discuss where we are in this reflation trade and just how sustainable it is... Note - for professional investors only

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

Great speech from MPC member, Vlieghe, highlighting inequality of UK savings by quintile:- is excess cashflow, extra income or extra wealth?; the propensity to spend from extra income materially different from extra wealth; estimates ranging from 10% to 50%; source BofE, 22/2/21

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

US BB BAML HY Index OAS yesterday hit 248bps (YTD -31bps), B 382bps (YTD -31ps) and US CCC 666bps (YTD -137bps), is that CCC OAS number an omen?

Source: ICE BofAML Indices via Bloomberg as of 17th Feb 2021

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

BANK OF ENGLAND'S SAUNDERS SAYS MORE PEOPLE REPORT FALLS IN SAVINGS THAN RISES, AGGREGATE RISE IS CONCENTRATED AT TOP END OF INCOME SCALE...important observation for the simple 2021 consumer driven boom narrative

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

Demand for US C&I loans picked up for precautionary reasons into the COVID crisis, but now significant deleveraging going on by companies and consumers; Underlying bank loan growth remains muted; meanwhile banks awash with deposits unlike the previous crisis! #japanification

[Jenna & John @StrategicBond]

Are we really doing this again? The January reflation hype in perspective...p.s. it's all April/May base effects.

Graph Source: Google Trends, 21 January 2021.