Merlin Strategy

Polling and Strategic Insights | [email protected] | British Polling Council member

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

You can read the writeup here: https://t.co/3eFtaKuJc6

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

You can read @RMCunliffe's writeup of our latest @StrategyMerlin focus groups in Makerfield in the @NewStatesman ⬇️⬇️⬇️

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

Great to be back on the cover of the @NewStatesman this week. This time with some exclusive @StrategyMerlin focus groups in Makerfield 👀

Out in print this week!

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

FPTP used to be criticised for artificially propping up our two party system.

Now, it means that more parties than ever can exert powerful political influence.

I wrote about the new chaos and opportunities of FPTP for this month's @TheCriticMag

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

"Weak" "A wet wipe" "Liar".

Voters' verdict on Starmer pre-locals. Our @StrategyMerlin X Charlesbye research showed that the public have already written off Keir Starmer, and that they are looking for change.

Great to have our work featured on @SkyNews this morning with @SophyRidgeSky

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

No party reaches 25% in Milton Keynes. 4 parties polling between 19-24% of the vote...

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

We asked what people were voting for in today's local elections. One word stands out:

"Change"

From our latest research with Charlesbye @MrLeeCain

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

By a 2-1 voters see their vote in today's elections as based on national factors rather than local ones

From our latest @StrategyMerlin X Charlesbye research @MrLeeCain

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

"Weak" is the most common word used to describe Keir Starmer.

Voters up and down the country and across the political spectrum are damning about the PM:

From our recent large-scale recent project with Charlesbye Strategy @MrLeeCain

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

Strikingly, less than 14% of those voting Greens or Reform say they would return to Labour and the Conservatives if they failed to deliver.

31% say they'd look for a new party, 27% say they'd stick with Greens/Reform, 11% say they would not vote.

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

Voters have never had more options available to them but still a majority say they do not feel represented by a political party.

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

The 'new' image of the Green Party has not filtered down to all voters yet, with many unaware of Polanski and still primarily associating the party with environmental issues.

The 3rd most popular reason for voting Green is 'they represent the radical change the country needs'

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

But that's not a good thing in the eyes of all voters.

Some view Reform as racist and dangerous, some see them as the least bad vehicle for change out of the options presented to them (but still have hesitations), and some are genuinely enthusiastic about Farage and his party.

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

Views of the insurgent parties (Greens and Reform) are very different. The voters for these parties are the ones with the most appetite for change and the highest distrust in the system as it is.

Reform and Greens are seen to be more radical than Conservatives and Labour...

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

Crucially, the Conservatives fall far behind Reform for which party is best to stop Labour:

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

Despite Badenoch's recovery, the Conservative brand is still struggling. Voters feel it is "irrelevant" and the party is described as “establishment” and “stuck in the past”.

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

The Party’s unpopularity is tied closely to government u-turns and a perceived lack of delivery on promises. This was especially true of its handling of the cost-of-living crisis, which most feel has gotten worse since Labour came into power

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

🌹Starting with views on the major parties, the Labour Party has particularly struggled. It is described as “stuck in the past” “liars” and “failure”

[Scarlett Maguire @Scarlett__Mag]

🧵 We @StrategyMerlin partnered with @MrLeeCain Charlesbye to look at the public mood ahead of the local elections. Across the next few days we will showcase the findings and what they mean for our politics...