I don’t need a beach house.
I need overnight frozen department stocking at Walmart, a dented thermos full of gas station coffee, one earbud playing Saylor interviews, and enough weekly Bitcoin buys to make my family quietly ask if I’ve joined a financial cult.
You need to view everything that Strategy are doing under the lens of trying to get into the S&P 500.
The decision to potentially sell up to $1.25 billion in $BTC is solely to satisfy S&P Global.
This was a long time coming and was obvious if you listened to the earnings call.
Strategy now has 17.4 months of dividend coverage in cash.
Bitcoin is currently −2.25% below the 4 Year Moving Average at $59,414.
These are the forward 17.4 month returns of Bitcoin whenever we are this oversold in relation to the 4 Year Moving Average.
Using clustered oversold regimes, here’s the list with the worst day inside each window and the 17.4 month forward Bitcoin return from that worst day:
2015-01-14: +291.0%
2015-08-24: +388.1%
2020-03-12: +888.7%
2020-03-16: +872.1%
2022-06-18: +98.6%
2022-07-02: +123.6%
2022-07-12: +122.3%
2022-07-26: +106.7%
2022-09-06: +177.4%
2022-11-21: +305.0%
2023-01-30: +159.3%
2023-02-10: +202.2%
2023-02-16: +181.2%
2023-03-10: +203.4%
2023-06-14: +270.3%
2023-08-22: +275.1%
2023-08-26: +271.2%
2023-09-06: +271.9%
2023-09-11: +283.7%
2023-09-26: +207.8%
Median across those worst-day regime samples: +239.1%.
And they don't even have to touch the reserves as of now because the market is giving them a CEBE premium to MSTR.
And they don't have to sell Bitcoin because they have the USD reserve + the capital markets access.
Lots of optionality. Survivability isn't even a question IMHO.
I think it’s time to seriously consider a vote for daily divs for STRC.
It can give the market daily reassurance that we will meet our obligations.
It may help reduce volatility as well with the pay date, ex Div, record date all on the same day.
Strategy added 9 months of dividend coverage to their cash reserve in one week by selling MSTR shares in a manner that was accretive to shareholders.
On Friday, after selling $1.1 billion of MSTR shares all week... the stock had zero CEBE premium as of market close.
The stock is now back up to 5% CEBE premium to where Strategy can just sell more MSTR shares for more cash, in a manner that is still accretive to MSTR shareholders.
The market continues to underrate Strategy's capital markets access, even with Bitcoin under $60,000.
They owe ~$7 million per trading day in dividends.
They raised 164 trading days of dividends in one week.
Once again, how is this a DEATH SPIRAL? LOL
🔥STRATEGY ADDS $1.15 BILLION IN CASH TO USD RESERVE🔥
This was accretive to MSTR shareholders.
They issued 12.669M MSTR shares, raised $1.152B of cash, bought 0 BTC… and CEBE still went UP.
Why?
Because the USD reserve jumped to ~$2.55B, adding roughly 5.4 months of preferred dividend + interest coverage in one week.
CEBE rose from 138,657 to 139,135 sats/share.
That means the capital stack got stronger AND residual BTC-equivalent per common share increased.
This is why “did they buy Bitcoin?” is now the wrong question.
The real question is:
Did common shareholders own more residual BTC after senior claims?
This week: yes.
Accretive.
This was a great move for both MSTR shareholders and STRC investors.
Today marks a significant evolution of @Strategy’s business model.
We now have maximum optionality with buyback programs for $MSTR and $STRC, alongside a monetization program for $BTC.
And as always, we remain committed to full transparency.