The Strat

Derivatives trader. ex-HSBC · BNP Paribas · 12yrs in Global Markets
Turning retail traders into market wizards 📈
Futures · Options · Macro 🔗

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$FCEL

Sold ITM puts for Oct expiry. Massive credit upfront.

$6500 for 10 contracts. 💵

Cost basis: $12.5 per share.

Expecting this to run as the AI energy story gains traction into Q3.

The bottleneck for AI isn't compute. It's energy. $FCEL positions itself alongside $BE to solve the power constraint.

May not match $BE's growth, but $FCEL has room to capture a larger slice by Q4 2026.

Price target: north of $30 by Q4 2026.

Only real risk: global sell-off if the Iran situation escalates with no truce in sight.

Otherwise, solid opportunity for long exposure in a high-reward small cap.

We're holding long-term. Plan to keep rolling profits by selling ITM puts as the stock climbs and maximize the premium harvested per delta.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$FCEL

Everyone's fixating on the Q2 loss. Missing the real story.

FuelCell just positioned itself at the center of AI's energy bottleneck.

The numbers look ugly on the surface:
- Net loss widened to $77.6M (vs $37.7M prior)
- Revenue missed by 12% at $35.6M
- Backlog down 9.9% to $1.14B
- Loss per share: $1.45 vs $0.52 expected

Groton project writedown hit hard; equipment replacement and repairs on older units.

So why did the stock rally 1.7% and bounce clean off 50DMA support?

Wall Street's looking at what matters:

Sales pipeline surged 267% sequentially to 4 GW. Nearly 80% of that pipeline is AI and data center demand.

The company makes 12.5-MW power blocks that deploy on-site at data centers; developers bypass the grid entirely. That's the solution to AI's power crunch.

Capex coming: expanding Torrington plant capacity from 350 MW to 500 MW for $200M–$275M.

ExxonMobil partnership extended through Dec 2026. First two carbon capture modules shipped to the Netherlands this week.

CEO Jason Few called it "disciplined operational execution" despite the red ink. Translation: the infrastructure play is accelerating while near-term earnings lag.

Our position:

As the post-earnings-announcement-drift (PEAD) starts manifesting, we sold cash-secured puts expiring Friday to capture elevated IV and small-cap volatility. This makes a good premium opportunity.

Planning to add long exposure via call LEAPS once IV normalizes.

$FCEL could be the next $BE if this pipeline converts.

Not financial advice

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Next rebound in $ASTS will be quick & beautiful! 🚀

[Ehrmantraut Capital @EhrmantrautCap_]

Over 10% discount on $ASTS because of the SpaceX IPO, which fundamentally changes nothing for AST SpaceMobile.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@TheRealWolfff Indeed. Supporting additionally are the technical characteristics around moving averages.

$ASTS has bounced off those levels several times in the past. That -15% dip on Friday was a gift. I rolled my puts out and away.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS dipped today. Rolled my short puts up and out.

New cost basis: $74 (2 contracts)
Net credit collected: $10,186 💵

Waiting for the Q3 rebound. Looking at a potential $10K profit if it plays out.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Here you go: a quick analysis of what the options market thinks about $RKLB

Source: @MenthorQpro

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS sold off today, but the options market is still constructive.

Gamma condition remains positive. The environment is still call-dominated. Net GEX sits at +7.97M.

Put support: $84
Call resistance: $100

Net GEX fell 81% day-over-day. Net DEX down 48%. Dealers have unwound speculative positioning, but have not shifted into negative gamma.

That means the destabilizing feedback loop that amplifies moves in both directions is not in play yet.

Current setup:

• Spot: $83.82
• Put Support: $84
• HVL: $87
• Call Wall: $100

If $ASTS reclaims $87 and holds, the move back toward $100 opens up. The gamma structure supports it.

Also, there's low float for borrowing for short sellers. A cover rally is possible if they start to unwind their short exposure.

GEX chart via @MenthorQpro

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$MSFT

Most traders check IV.

Few check where the IV sits.

That's the edge.

MSFT volatility skew right now:

• OTM puts carrying higher IV than ATM
• Aug/Sep (earnings months) priced richer than non-earnings expirations
• Skew forms a smile; demand for both downside protection and upside

Market is paying up for downside insurance.

If you sell options, the expensive put premium creates opportunities:

- Cash-Secured Puts
- Bull Put Spreads
- Wheel Strategy

You're selling the richest part of the surface.

Aug options include the July 28 earnings.

Aug IV > Jul IV

Diagonals (long Aug calls, short Jul calls) are popular here.

But you're not buying cheap IV and selling expensive IV.

You're buying earnings vol because you want the catalyst exposure.

Different trade.

Chart setup:

• 200-week MA support
• Bullish momentum divergence
• Trendline breakout forming
• Earnings catalyst ahead

For bullish setups:

- Bull Put Spreads
- Bull Call Spreads
- Call Diagonals

Better risk-adjusted exposure than naked long calls.

The volatility surface shows you where the market fears risk.

That's where edge lives.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

I'm in line for 100 shares of $SPCX

Yes, I know there are bloated valuation concerns, but I am in it long-term and not worried about the short-term fluctuations.

Max offer price:$165 (should they revise at the last minute based on demand, though unlikely).

Happy to be part of @SpaceX's vision to expand human consciousness and make life multi-planetary.

Fingers crossed, and hoping to get an allotment.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$FCEL

Sold ITM puts for Oct expiry. Massive credit upfront.

$6500 for 10 contracts. 💵

Cost basis: $12.5 per share.

Expecting this to run as the AI energy story gains traction into Q3.

The bottleneck for AI isn't compute. It's energy. $FCEL positions itself alongside $BE to solve the power constraint.

May not match $BE's growth, but $FCEL has room to capture a larger slice by Q4 2026.

Price target: north of $30 by Q4 2026.

Only real risk: global sell-off if the Iran situation escalates with no truce in sight.

Otherwise, solid opportunity for long exposure in a high-reward small cap.

We're holding long-term. Plan to keep rolling profits by selling ITM puts as the stock climbs and maximize the premium harvested per delta.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

These $FCEL puts are paying off so far.

If things hold, we’re on track for a full-profit expiration by Friday.

So far, so good.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Most traders look at $IREN and see a Bitcoin miner.

They're missing the real story.

IREN secured a $3.4B AI cloud contract with NVIDIA, expanded its AI cloud platform to Europe, and grew GPU capacity to 150,000, all within a few months. This is infrastructure buildout at a pace the market hasn't fully priced.

Technically:
- Parallel channel respected on the daily
- Weekly bull-flag breakout intact
- Trend direction bullish, with a divergence between price & RSI

We're positioned via a long synthetic future (short put + long call, same strike, same expiry). Net credit on entry. Full upside exposure. If assigned shares, that's even better; it's a strong Wheel candidate with high IV and a real growth engine underneath.

Revenue forecast to grow 41% annually over the next 3 years, more than double the 15% growth forecast for the broader software industry.

Don't forget that it also has an NVDA contract, EU expansion (Nostrum acquisition), GPU fleet scaling plans, and high-growth revenue expectations.

Target: 70+ near-term. 100+ by Q4 under favorable conditions.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$NBIS waiting for another long signal.

expect a strong year-end rally.

not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Everyone's calling $SPCX the trade of the decade.

Maybe. But read the filing first.

A stretched price and a deliberately thin float are a recipe for a sharp first move in either direction, followed by higher-than-normal volatility. That's not an opinion. That's the structure of the deal.

What the bulls have right:
- Starlink is genuinely profitable and growing
- A small initial free float against global demand can force a sharp opening premium, and if $SPCX qualifies for large-cap indices, funds tracking those benchmarks become mechanical buyers within weeks
- SpaceX operates a constellation of ~10,000 satellites, plus xAI (the AI unit that acquired @x). The asset base is real.

What the bears have right:
- Bulls see $2.5T by 2030. Bears see fair value at less than half today's tag. That's not a rounding error. That's a completely different company.
- Existing shareholders, including Musk, are locked up for 366 days, which is longer than usual. Limits early selling, but also caps float and amplifies swings.
- First earnings call as a public company isn't until September 2026. You're flying blind on fundamentals for months.

The first move will be dominated by supply-demand technicals.

Fundamentals won't get a real read until the first quarterly report.

So far, $SPCX has hit a high of $176.50 today.

Treat today's trading as price discovery, not a verdict.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS dipped today. Rolled my short puts up and out.

New cost basis: $74 (2 contracts)
Net credit collected: $10,186 💵

Waiting for the Q3 rebound. Looking at a potential $10K profit if it plays out.

Not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$NBIS waiting for another long signal.

expect a strong year-end rally.

not financial advice.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

I think future AI models will be trained outside of the United States.

Perhaps in a less restricted environment.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@bridgemindai It was already hitting ATH before Fable 5 got released. They just turned off one model, not the entire stack.

No offence, but stay in your lane mate.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Here we go….

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@smdcapital Private placement. They’ll be locked in for a definite period of time.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

If I’m not mistaken, the Iran war ends on this date.

Could this be the signal? Just 2 more days.

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

Here you go: a quick analysis of what the options market thinks about $RKLB

Source: @MenthorQpro

[VanScaleN @TheBenHere]

@StratsLabs @MenthorQpro Do you have this for RKLB?

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

@TheBenHere @MenthorQpro Yes sir

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS sold off today, but the options market is still constructive.

Gamma condition remains positive. The environment is still call-dominated. Net GEX sits at +7.97M.

Put support: $84
Call resistance: $100

Net GEX fell 81% day-over-day. Net DEX down 48%. Dealers have unwound speculative positioning, but have not shifted into negative gamma.

That means the destabilizing feedback loop that amplifies moves in both directions is not in play yet.

Current setup:

• Spot: $83.82
• Put Support: $84
• HVL: $87
• Call Wall: $100

If $ASTS reclaims $87 and holds, the move back toward $100 opens up. The gamma structure supports it.

Also, there's low float for borrowing for short sellers. A cover rally is possible if they start to unwind their short exposure.

GEX chart via @MenthorQpro

[The Strat @StratsLabs]

$ASTS dipped today. Rolled my short puts up and out.

New cost basis: $74 (2 contracts)
Net credit collected: $10,186 💵

Waiting for the Q3 rebound. Looking at a potential $10K profit if it plays out.

Not financial advice.