Stratus Intelligence

Elite polling. Predictive analytics. Narrative intelligence.
Built for campaigns that refuse to lose.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Stratus Intelligence poll | 1/7-1/9 LV

South Carolina Governor Republican primary (Nancy Mace internal)

Nancy Mace 23%
Alan Wilson 19%
Pamela Evette 14%
Ralph Norman 11%
Undecided 32%
—
Net Favorables
Alan Wilson (+15)
Pamela Evette (+10)
Ralph Norman (+10)
Nancy Mace (-10)

[Kyle Loveless @KyleDLoveless]

A race to watch for sure, and @StratusIntel is the company you want in a tough contested race

[eyesover @eyesover_us]

Research Brief
Online Sentiment Moves First
New research confirms emotional shifts precede polling changes during volatile periods.
Polls measure where voters are.
Sentiment shows where they’re going.

[eyesover @eyesover_us]

Weekly Snapshot: National Online Sentiment
Real-time voter intelligence for decision-makers
What polling misses, EyesOver detects first

This Week: ICE in Minnesota · Venezuela · Iran Protests · Powell Probe

[Christopher S. Wilson @ChrisWilsonQED]

Candidate image strongly favors Bowen: higher name recognition, a two-to-one advantage in favorability, and very low unfavorables; an indicator that late consolidation is more likely to reinforce the leader than reverse the race.
3/4

[Christopher S. Wilson @ChrisWilsonQED]

Topline ballot among likely GOP primary voters:
• Scott Bowen: 46%
• Bob Mitchell: 18%
• Undecided: 36%

A 28-point lead in a two-candidate primary is well outside a marginal or volatile range.
2/4

[Christopher S. Wilson @ChrisWilsonQED]

New @StratusIntel survey data in the TX HD 129 GOP primary shows Scott Bowen (@sbwnhtx) with a clear and durable lead; leads on the ballot, in image, and among the voters most likely to turn out.
(1/4)
🧵👇

[Stratus Intelligence @StratusIntel]

“Long ago in many ways and at many times God's prophets spoke his message to our ancestors. But now at last, God sent his Son to bring his message to us. God created the universe by his Son, and everything will someday belong to the Son.” https://t.co/cf07Ku9I1m

[Stratus Intelligence @StratusIntel]

@JonathanKrems @TheCalvinCooli1 Same firm, correct.

[The Calvin Coolidge Project @TheCalvinCooli1]

🚨New: Polling in the 2026 Texas Senate Republican primary shows a competitive race

🔴Ken Paxton 36%
🟠 Wesley Hunt 26%
🟢 John Cornyn 25%
⚪️ Undecideds 14%

Runoff
🔴 Paxton 51%
🟢 Cornyn 34%

🟠 Hunt 52%
🟢 Cornyn 29%

Via: Stratus Intelligence
Date: 11/21-11/22
Voters: 857 LV

[Stratus Intelligence @StratusIntel]

Our survey and Ragnar’s survey are not actually in disagreement—they are measuring two different electorates.

Ragnar’s electorate:
•High landline share
•Oldest, most habitual 4/4 voters
•Overrepresentation of college grads and low-growth regions

Stratus electorate:
•100% mobile-accessible voters
•Accurately captures low-, mid-, and high-propensity Republicans
•Aligns with every known public and private trend in Texas GOP opinion for the past 90 days

If you want to know what Republicans over age 65 think, Ragnar’s poll is fine.

If you want to know what the 2026 GOP primary electorate thinks, ours is the correct instrument.

[Wesley Hunt @WesleyHuntTX]

Remember when @JohnCornyn told you I was in a “distant third?”

That’s called projection.

After spending millions attacking me on television: John Cornyn falls into 3rd place.

$50 million spent on a candidate and he’s not even going to make a run-off.

So much for saving the majority.

[Ben Jacobs @Bencjacobs]

SCOOP: Just got a hold of an internal Hunt superPAC memo that has Cornyn in free fall

[Wesley Hunt @WesleyHuntTX]

I announced my candidacy for U.S. Senate in Texas 6 weeks ago, and now I'm in second place.

Imagine what I'll do with another 12 weeks!

[Ally Mutnick @allymutnick]

More head-to-heads:

Paxton leads Wesley Hunt by 1 point, 41% to 40%

Hunt leads Cornyn by 23 points, 52% to 29%

[Stratus Intelligence @StratusIntel]

This is incorrect, and the data make that very clear:

1. Hunt did not lead Paxton from "September to November".

The trend line in the chart shows Paxton ahead in every single wave. Hunt closed the gap, but Paxton led wire-to-wire. Perhaps Matt is misreading the axis.

2. Cornyn absolutely did lead Hunt, early in the series.

In March, April, June, and July, Cornyn was ahead of Hunt. Hunt only overtakes him as the year progresses because Cornyn’s numbers collapse, not because the early polls showed Hunt winning.

3. Cornyn’s favorability is nowhere near +18.

In our most recent survey, conducted for this memo, Cornyn sits at:
35% favorable / 51% unfavorable (net –16) with 28% “very unfavorable.”

That is the lowest point in the entire time series. These numbers are well below water, and no credible poll this fall has shown him near +18 among GOP primary voters.

Bottom line: The chart is below. It shows Paxton leading all year, Cornyn starting above Hunt and then falling below him and now deeply underwater.

Misreading the graph doesn’t change the situation.

[Stratus Intelligence @StratusIntel]

🔥🔥🔥

[TUCM @TUCM_PAC]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: New Polling Shows Scott Bowen Up 30 Points Over Mitchell

[Kambree @KamVTV]

@ChrisWilsonQED @DonHuffines This is HUGE!

[Christopher S. Wilson @ChrisWilsonQED]

Don Huffines has real momentum — the kind that can’t be bought with lobbyist cash or old titles.

If you’re serious about shrinking government, securing the border, and ending wasteful spending, you already know who to support.

[Christopher S. Wilson @ChrisWilsonQED]

This is Kelly Hancock’s home district — and Republican voters are choosing bold reform over stale incumbency.

What does that tell you about where the grassroots are headed?