Strict Trades

[Trader 80/20🛡️ @Trader_8020]

🥸 $BASED is one of those tokens where the business is good and the token quietly isn't. Worth understanding why, because the gap is fixable.

Start with the strengths, because they're real. Based is the number one app by volume on Hyperliquid $HYPE and number two by revenue, with roughly 40 billion in cumulative volume and actual users, not just farmers. The founders are doxxed with real track records (Zilliqa, Lazada). The cap table is about as strong as it gets this cycle: Pantera led the round, with Coinbase Ventures, Wintermute, Ethena, Hashed and Spartan alongside. This is not a vapor project. The product ships and it makes money.

Now the uncomfortable part.

The token is pure utility. You hold or stake BASED for fee discounts, up to 8% cashback on the card, higher limits, launchpool and airdrop access. That's nice, but here is the core flaw of a utility only design: people buy exactly what they need and not one token more, and they can sell the second they stop needing it. Utility creates transactional demand, not structural demand. It does not put a floor under the price.

And here is the irony nobody at Based wants printed. Every trade routed through the app feeds Hyperliquid's buyback machine, which sends around 97 percent of fees into buying HYPE. Based generates all this volume, and the value accrual flows to HYPE, not to BASED. Based earns its own builder fee on top, about 15 million a year, but right now that revenue does not buy back the token, does not get distributed to holders, does not burn anything. No buyback, no burn, no revenue share. The flywheel they describe is a customer acquisition flywheel, not a token value flywheel.

So what would it really take to get to a dollar?

A dollar means roughly a 1 billion valuation. From here that is about a 13x, and you have to do it while absorbing the investor and team unlocks that start landing in March 2027, north of 40 percent of supply. You do not get there on vibes and cashback. You get there by turning real revenue into permanent buy pressure. Concretely:

➤ 1) Route a fixed share of builder revenue into buybacks. Even 30 to 50 percent of 15 million a year is enormous against a 16 million market cap. Do it transparently and on chain, the way Lighter $LIT already does, the way the parent chain itself already does.

➤ 2) Or pay real yield. Distribute a slice of revenue to stakers in USDC or USDe. Turn staking from stake for perks into stake to earn. That is the difference between a coupon and a dividend.

➤ 3) Make holding non optional. Tie card tiers, launchpool allocation and fee rebates to locked BASED, so the best users are also the longest holders and float velocity drops.

➤ 4) Time it to the unlock cliff. A volume scaled buyback is the natural counterweight to insider supply. If buybacks grow with volume while supply is fixed, the math finally points up instead of down.

As it stands, BASED is a great business attached to a mediocre token. The company can keep winning while the token goes nowhere, because the value leaks to HYPE and to users instead of to holders.

Flip on one value accrual switch and the whole thesis changes. The volume is already there. The revenue is already there. The users are already there. The only thing missing is a reason for the token to capture any of it.

DYOR.

[Doodles @DG_doodles]

Had some time tonight so i threw $BASED into the @Hertzflow_xyz SurfAI Alpha Skill just to see what it would surface.

Insider Realization:

• $1.41M of insider selling already confirmed on-chain.
• Operator wallets ran 187% of total supply through them
• Their balance now sits near zero - already cleared out

Volume Quality:

• $27.62M 24h volume looks healthy, but it's inflated
• A single wash bot accounts for ~12.8% of it
• 1.26M+ on-chain matches across ~200 addresses volume isn't real absorption

What stands out:

• Real executable depth is only $5.4K per buy under 5% slippage
• A 25-wallet operator cluster, fully unlabeled, off Arkham's radar
• 100+ large anomalous transfers in the last 72h.

What i respect is that it doesn't make you swim through raw data.

It pointed straight at a 25-wallet cluster cut from the same cloth, shared funding, shared mint, shared gas and the whole cluster sits invisible.

Getting eyes on the wallet level before you commit capital beats blindly riding the hype every single time.

CA: 0x1d28d989f9e3ccb8b15d0cec601734514f958e4d

#alphaskillcall
@Surfdeveloper @SurfAI @Hertzflow_xyz @Surf_VN

[Trader 80/20🛡️ @Trader_8020]

🧐 Who and What wants $BASED to win?

Who actually wants BASED, the consumer app built on Hyperliquid $HYPE, to succeed? This is not a conspiracy map. It is an incentive map.

One thing ties everyone on this map together: flow.

Every trade routed through BASED pays a small builder fee into Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid then uses almost all of its fees to buy back HYPE, and validators treat those buybacks as burns. So more BASED users means more trading volume, more fees, more HYPE buybacks, and a stronger token for everyone holding or staking it.

There is also the $USDC layer. Hyperliquid runs mostly on USDC, which makes every new BASED user valuable not only to HYPE holders, but also to Circle and Coinbase. More collateral, more settlement, more reserve yield.

And this is not some future fantasy. BASED already drives a real share of Hyperliquid’s daily volume. The only question is how big the loop gets if BASED becomes the main consumer app for the ecosystem.

➥ 1. Pantera Capital. Pantera led BASED's $11.5M round and took a board seat. If BASED becomes the front door to Hyperliquid, Pantera owns a piece of that door. It also holds separate Hyperliquid exposure, so it can win on both sides.

➥ 2. Coinbase Ventures. Coinbase's venture arm holds equity in BASED. If BASED becomes the default front-end, that stake is worth more. This sits apart from Coinbase's USDC angle below, so the company has two separate reasons to care.

➥ 3. Coinbase. This is the bigger one. Coinbase earns a large share of the yield on USDC reserves. Hyperliquid runs on USDC, BASED brings more trading, more USDC sits there as collateral, and Coinbase collects more on that pile.

➥ 4. Circle. Maybe the biggest quiet winner. Hyperliquid uses USDC as its main collateral and settlement asset, and that supply has grown to around $5 billion. Circle earns interest on those reserves, so more BASED trading puts more USDC to work for Circle.

➥ 5. Circle as a HYPE holder. Circle did not stop at USDC. It bought HYPE, committed to stake 500,000 of them, and is moving toward running a validator. So Circle now gains from USDC demand and from HYPE going up.

➥ 6. Wintermute. Wintermute wins in three ways. Its venture arm backed BASED, it is an approved trading partner for the new HYPE ETFs, and it makes markets on the volume BASED sends to Hyperliquid.

➥ 7. Karatage. Karatage took part in the Series A. As an early equity backer, its return depends almost entirely on BASED getting bigger, so the app winning is its only real lever.

➥ 8. Ethena and the Suberra era backers. BASED grew out of an older project called Suberra, and names like Ethena, Hashed, and Spartan are tied to that history or to current deals. BASED even runs a perps venue called HyENA built with Ethena. If the old infrastructure bet turns into a real trading app, those backers finally see it pay off.

➥ 9. Hyperliquid. The obvious one. BASED does not compete with Hyperliquid's engine, it feeds it users across mobile, web, desktop, prediction markets, and card spending. More BASED users, more Hyperliquid activity.

➥ 10. The Assistance Fund. This is the part most people skip. The fund takes almost all of Hyperliquid's fees and uses them to buy HYPE off the market. More BASED volume means more fees, which means a bigger and steadier bid under the token.

➥ 11. HYPE holders. Everything above lands here. More traders, more volume, more USDC collateral, and a better story all push the same direction. Holders want anything that makes Hyperliquid look like a real financial app instead of a pro-only terminal.

➥ 12. Validators and stakers. More activity strengthens the network and the staking yield. If BASED widens the user base, the people securing the chain have a clear reason to care.

➥ 13. Bitwise. Bitwise launched a US spot HYPE ETF and even stakes the HYPE it holds. A stronger BASED story means a stronger HYPE story, which grows the fund and the fees it earns.

➥ 14. Grayscale. Grayscale runs a HYPE staking ETF and came in cheaper than the rest on fees. Same logic: long HYPE, earns more as the price and the assets climb.

➥ 15. 21Shares. 21Shares runs its own HYPE ETF, in the same race as Bitwise and Grayscale. It earns fees on the HYPE it holds for investors, so it gains from anything that lifts HYPE demand and price. A stronger BASED brings exactly that kind of demand.

➥ 16. HYPE treasury companies. Public companies now hold HYPE on their balance sheets to give stock buyers exposure. Names like Hyperliquid Strategies, Hyperion DeFi, and Lion Group sit on hundreds of millions of dollars in HYPE. A stronger BASED narrative lifts both their treasuries and their share price.

➥ 17. a16z linked whales. On-chain trackers have tied very large HYPE buying to wallets they believe belong to a16z. The firm has not confirmed this, so read it as wallet tracing, not a statement. If the read is right, those wallets want every new BASED user they can get.

➥ 18. Galaxy Digital. Galaxy runs a Hyperliquid validator, has staked HYPE, and has traded it through large wallets. As a validator, holder, and trader, it gains from a stronger HYPE and more flow. Its positioning has moved both ways, so this is alignment, not a permanent bet.

➥ 19. Arthur Hayes and the loud bulls. Hayes has been one of the loudest voices saying Hyperliquid is a real financial system, not just an exchange, which helps the whole BASED pitch. Worth a small note: he sold his HYPE position in mid 2026 while keeping the long-term thesis. The argument still works for BASED, the position does not always match the talk.

➥ 20. Polymarket. BASED puts prediction markets in the same app as perps and spot, and the partner is Polymarket. That gives Polymarket more reach and makes event betting feel like normal trading.

➥ 21. USDH and Native Markets. Hyperliquid now has its own stablecoin, USDH, run by Native Markets, with the reserve yield split between HYPE buybacks and the ecosystem. More settlement on Hyperliquid feeds that loop too. It is also the one thing that could slowly pull yield away from Circle.

➥ 22. HyperEVM apps like Felix. Lending and stablecoin apps on Hyperliquid's own chain, like Felix, grow on deposits and active users. BASED is a funnel that brings both. More people flowing through BASED means more collateral and fees landing in these apps.

➥ 23. Affiliates and creators. One of the most underrated groups. The affiliate model pays a real share of fees across referral tiers, so a creator who brings in traders builds recurring income, not a one-time shill.

➥ 24. Card users. If BASED wins, trading profits get easier to spend in the real world. Most apps stop at your PnL. BASED is trying to tie trading, prediction markets, and a spending card into one loop.

Put it together and the picture is simple. BASED is not just a screen people tap. It is a distribution layer. Hyperliquid gets users. USDC gets settlement demand. Circle and Coinbase earn on the float. HYPE holders, ETFs, and treasury companies get a stronger story to sell. Affiliates get a fee stream. Polymarket gets reach. And BASED sits in the middle and takes a small cut of all of it. That is why so many large players quietly want this one to win.

☝️ DYOR. I tried to avoid making inaccurate claims. If I did get something wrong in the text, please correct me in the comments.

[Strict Trades @StrictTrades]

@EYESccp I appreciate your sharing! What do you think is the minimum target? (You may dme if you feel more comfortable haha)

[Evening Trader Group @Eveningtraders]

$XPIN FRESH WALLETS ACCUMULATION DETECTED

Multiple fresh wallets have recently withdrawn $XPIN from Gate.

Tracked so far: 10 wallets accumulated a total of 2.26B $XPIN, worth around $2.95M, near the current price zone around $0.00125.

At the same time, there are also multiple token movements from wallets that previously received vesting tokens from the project.

This combination makes the flow worth tracking.

$XPIN may be entering a setup phase.

> 0xc0a3a7BD00e78BeF3b2398A14Bb099F0619D2C4 (300.03M $XPIN)
> 0xf6FD61FbF3c73240dC02A0EA1B0dDDe5DBDD0323 (293.15M $XPIN)
> 0x325EeB2CbEc58f371BB542092299E10e563DEd9f (252.12M $XPIN)
> 0xe3f9d1F5a5DE8b83287A6b77f5606F300d78D6D1 (241.00M $XPIN)
> 0xD38abb94C478BB1Ec8c08281c8a0bCDC304b8f76 (230.00M $XPIN)
> 0xE1f9784FF4d5eBa58A0d48bAF5b7FcEeCf877d30 (220.00M $XPIN)
> 0xb429988DbA50036c189913a27fDFf882972446f5 (220.00M $XPIN)
> 0x7E5b143be57d017Be0C1AA701A873A4E8D35ef66 (205.00M $XPIN)
> 0x044e539932c97Aa683E95d2Ea8fFFE058E89E1A4 (200.00M $XPIN)
> 0x0Cf225FbDd89A04BfbE4e9DE7bdBa86AadE14A45 (99.69M $XPIN)

[Strict Trades @StrictTrades]

Call me dangerous. Maybe I'm just based

[Evening Trader Group @Eveningtraders]

$741.75K across 7 wallets isn't a whale move. It's something earlier than that

7 fresh addresses are accumulating 10.17M $BASED in sync, the kind of coordinated footprint that appears at the beginning of accumulation phases before the larger wallets show up and the signal becomes undeniable.

Save this post for later

[Strict Trades @StrictTrades]

@gemfinderxxxxx Which way do you think it will likely go?

[Strict Trades @StrictTrades]

@0xNoxxx AWE and AIO

Seems to be pumping well despite the overall market weakness

[Nazoku @Nazo_ku]

LBank has just deposited $1.68m worth of $DEXE to Binance, likely to sell.

$DEXE is down nearly 7% today!

[Zora @Zorathzzz]

Just today alone, anyone who followed me saw exactly how i print money.

short $BTW +30%
short $SYN round 1 +15%
short $SYN round 2 +30%
short $UB +20%
short $LAB +20%
long $HMSTR +10%
long $MMT +15%

all of these signals usually play out within 1–2 hours, so you don’t have to wait too long, right?

if this post reaches 1,000 likes and 500 shares, i’ll continue sharing my long and short trading experience.

[Vinh (equity perps era) @vinhdtrai]

Mình sẽ hướng dẫn anh em cách đơn giản nhất để kiếm tiền trong thị trường 🤭

Đó chính là

Long những scams coin có tên kết thúc bằng cụm từ:

"AI"

Những ví dụ điển hình cho việc chỉ cần có AI thì coin sẽ bay tung nóc chính là:

$SKYAI
$BLUAI
$UAI

Một con ae cần chú ý hiện tại là $COAI, con hàng đã có sóng rất căng từ tháng 10/2025 , đang tích lũy lại ở hiện tại và có vài cây bơm thử test cung :))

Lưu ý: Chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, đây là nhận định cá nhân của mình và không xúi dục bất kỳ ai tham gia

#j4f

[Tradinator @Tradinator33]

Any token where team holds 80-95%+ of supply is automatically a huge red flag.

It basically means they can engineer the chart however they want.

We’ve already seen enough examples:

$LABS
$RAVE

Current ones like: $UAI $RIVER $ZKP $XNY $BASED $GENIUS all have teams holding an absurd amount of supply

And can easily send some to the crime lord Binance as "listing fees", before dumping on retail.

Stay safe out there friends.

[Evening Trader Group @Eveningtraders]

$BEAT INSIDER POSITION DID AN 8X AFTER RE-ACCUMULATION

$BEAT is now up around 8x in 20 days from the re-accumulation signal on May 21

The tracked insider position went from $886K to $6.81M

This is a rare case where the chart looked almost dead after a brutal drawdown, but still managed to return to ATH again

Looks like we’re starting to find the common pattern behind these hidden gems

The hard part is not only finding them early, but having enough patience and risk management to survive the drawdowns

[Ahmed XM @ahmedxm01]

First trader in Africa to hit a Million followers on Instagram. Grateful for the journey. 🦅❤️

[Zora @Zorathzzz]

The low-capital dca short system for overvalued altcoins

important note: only use capital up to 50k usdt. this amount is generally too small for market makers to deliberately target you. if you are shorting with much larger capital, the situation is completely different.

step 1: when should you short an altcoin?

only consider shorting when several of the following conditions are present:

market cap reaches 3-5 billion usd or higher.
valuation is excessively high compared to its real value (inflated market cap).
price has risen too aggressively in a short period of time.
one-day candles show gains of 70-100%.
funding rate is strongly positive and the long side is overcrowded.
open interest increases sharply.
market sentiment is extremely euphoric and full of fomo.
the crowd believes the price will continue rising forever.

the more conditions that appear, the higher the probability that a top is forming.

[Zora @Zorathzzz]

I'm using a strategy to short shitcoins that experience explosive pumps, such as $Raven, $Pippin, $Siren, and $Lab. i’ve almost never taken a loss with it. if you’re interested, please like and share this post. if enough people are interested, i’ll share the entire strategy and hold nothing back.

[Evening Trader Group @Eveningtraders]

$BANK SUPPLY CONTROL SETUP STILL VALID

Update on the previous $BANK signal.

The accumulation clusters from Binance and Bitget are still holding.

Tracked so far: 35 wallets withdrew around 237.48M $BANK, now worth approximately $8.9M.

Price has also been holding inside the same range for almost 7 months.

No catalyst yet.
No confirmed breakout yet.
But the footprint is already there.

CEX outflow, clustered wallets, long accumulation range.

Now the only thing left is patience.

[Miles @Miles082510]

马后炮下 $xpin 最近3天从gate 提了250WU的币到了10个新钱包

果然今天拉了一根

[链上💰小敖丙 @ElonKely_]

这个巨鲸半年前以 0.00215 的均价买了 323 万美金的 $XPIN 代币，目前浮亏 131 万美金，刚刚再次购买了 193 万美金 $XPIN 代币，现账户总持仓 30 亿枚代币，总价值 386 万美金

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