Stuart Rance

IT service management and information security consultant, author & trainer. Also @[email protected],

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

This list of my blogs and other content is always kept up-to-date with recent posts https://t.co/XkxxnLrktU #itsm #infosec

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@swardley No. But it's a good idea

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

I've just created a Bluesky account at https://t.co/VEYKAreSvA, please join me there if you want to continue interacting

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@RoyAtkinson @AlyssaAngelll It means saying that you hold a particular belief but not acting in accordance with it

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@swardley @Keir_Starmer But the UK is still providing weapons to the Netanyahu government

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@krfabian Happy birthday

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@krfabian Oh no baby is shrinking!

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@krfabian Judy wants to hear the details

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@Kris_Sangani @faizashaheen This was totally down to the arrogance and stupidity of the Labour Party

[Faiza Shaheen @faizashaheen]

This graph shows the Faiza Shaheen campaign's latest figures.

There are lots of numbers and bar charts in circulation in Chingford & Woodford Green, which makes life difficult because many of you are trying to work out the best way to defeat IDS. Having dedicated a big chunk of my life to beating Iain Duncan Smith since 2018, there’re probably very few who understand that desire more than me! To clear up any doubts, I thought I’d write this post to explain what our figures show.

Key points about our data:

1) This is based on thousands of doorstep conversations across the constituency. The graph makes it clear that it is based on canvassing data, not an opinion poll. Yes this is imperfect, but in the absence of detailed local opinion polling, it's all there is to go on. We knock on every door with registered voters.

2) Labour and the Conservatives also have canvassing data and, in all likelihood, it’s showing the same sort of voting intention as ours (if their figures were different, they probably would have made their way onto social media by now...)

3) Undecideds are being assigned using the Redfield-Wilton method, which is used by all the opinion poll companies to temper their results. This involves reallocating undecided voters in line with national polling trends. If we did not do this, the picture painted by the data would look even better for our independent campaign.

4) The point of sharing the graph is to emphasise that the tactical vote to beat the Conservatives is now less likely to be a Labour one.

The graphs being pushed by the Labour Party are based on what is called a MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification), a way of modelling voter preferences based on a combination of national trends and previous behaviour. This method makes them seriously flawed for a situation like ours. Their graphs are mainly based on 2019 data and don’t factor in the additional candidates standing in 2024. They also fail to reflect that when I stood as a Labour candidate my team pulled off a swing to Labour that was completely at odds with the collapse in Labour's national vote share. That's less helpful than publishing canvassing returns.

Furthermore, this polling weights for different demographics - but interestingly not religion, which is important for this election because a large share of Muslim voters will no longer be voting Labour because of their position on Palestine.

The decision of which way to vote has been difficult for so many of you – and I get that. After all, I was the Labour candidate until a matter of weeks ago and have knocked doors every weekend since I was reselected in 2022 to build up Labour’s reputation here.

But I am now your independent, local candidate. I am running a positive campaign that talks about what our community needs and what it could be. Labour split the vote here when they deselected me. I ran the marathon, winning the biggest vote for Labour here in the worst election defeat for a generation, only for an unknown, unsupported candidate to be imposed 200 yards before the finish line.

In the midst of flawed and outdated data being touted as truth, I ask you to make your decision with your heart and your head by voting for me, the local candidate who will be standing up for this community first and foremost.

This is our chance for a new type of politics, even the data agrees.

Read more about methods:
https://t.co/xxH7QiwDbM
https://t.co/dNfgXCITc8...

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@Kris_Sangani @MPIainDS @ShamaTatler It would be better to vote for @faizashaheen who is the candidate most likely to beat Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green.

[Faiza Shaheen @faizashaheen]

If you're worried that voting for me as an Independent candidate will split the vote in Chingford and Woodford Green, you shouldn’t be. I’ve spent years fighting IDS and the last thing I want is to see him keep his seat. So if you know someone that wants to vote for me but is worried by national polling, share this video and tell them these three simple things:

1. Two of the biggest tactical voting sites in this country have withdrawn their recommendation of voting Labour here to get the Tories out.

2. Our data, from thousands of random conversations in the constituency, show that I’m ahead in the race. The Faiza Shaheen campaign has the most votes pledged.

3. Labour are going to win in a national landslide, so we need a critical voice in Westminster holding them to account.

Don’t risk Iain Duncan Smith getting back in, vote for the person actually invested in our community.

Vote Faiza Shaheen, Independent, on 4 July.

https://t.co/0AksgQYo7T

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@smartysue @faizashaheen wins in Chingford and Woodford Green

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@WFEcho And then he came canvassing with us again tonight

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@Kris_Sangani Are you seriously trying to claim that people in the constituency who live near South Woodford station don't use it for their commute?

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@Kris_Sangani @ShamaTatler @MPIainDS We will all discover the truth in about two weeks

[Jay Holder @JayHolder17]

Lovely morning canvassing for @faizashaheen with @StuartRance and this brilliant toddler. So many people proud to be voting independent in July. #OurVoiceOurChoice #StandwithFaiza

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@berkson0 Lol

[Stuart Rance @StuartRance]

@Jackcantsleep1 #like