Stybb

Doctorate in Biophysics, wishes he worked in sports analytics.

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

I post free football bets at https://t.co/UU7YO5n1Wd. Averaging 6%+ ROI over 3 years:

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

No Arsenal Defenders?

Here's the principals of selection:
1. Players are undervalued based on their total points last season.
2. No new transfers or promoted teams
3. I couldn't afford Saliba/Fernandes
4. Hemmings and Abbott low TSB
5. I don't trust Palace, or Rodgers to start

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Plotting value/price graphs:

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Plotting player values by last years score v this years price:

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Prior season points is the best metrics to rate how a player will perform in the next season - better than any expected points metrics I've tested.

One thing to beware - Players who have overachieved in the xG (and maybe xA) in previous seasons can be traps.

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Following the crowd is a solid baseline for how players will perform - except wierdly not always the top selected goalkeepers

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Defences dont always take time to warm up, plenty of clean sheets are still possible in the early game weeks.

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

As long as you can reliably pick starters:

GKs and FWDs offer the best value for money:

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

A few lessons on picking a fantasy football team based on historical data.

Note there's only 1 season of Defcon in here so some skews in the data

1. Players who played last season are a much safer bet than new transfers in / promoted players.

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

GW 37 team: Mukiele in for Andersen, everyone has solid fixtures so Bench Boost time:

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Wolves are facing the combined worst defences these last 2 weeks if you fancy a big differential?

xP v Opponent Strength: FWDs

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Who are you going for from the rest of the midfielders?

xP v Opponent Strength: MIDs

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Arsenal / Everton top of the easy fixture run ins:

Need to pick one of these after Andersen ruined last week for me.

xP v Opponent Strength: DEFs

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

Anyone for a new GK at this part of the season?

xP v Opponent Strength: GKs

[Stybb @Stybb_Gaming]

FPL score for the week, 74. That Andersen transfer for the red cost us a few points