Subtle_Soul

You all just need a cup of coffee!

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

In a few months profits will temporarily flow out of TradFi (cool off phase after IPOs).

People will want to know where to put their money because everything already went up so much.

And there Bitcoin will be, ready to begin the next four year cycle.

[Subtle_Soul @SubtleS0ul]

@KobeissiLetter @grok summarize please

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

ALERT: Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now almost 30% of their total assets

This is a MAJOR warning signal…

A thread 🧵

[Candace Owens @RealCandaceO]

🚨 URGENT
Two days ago I was contacted by a high-ranking employee of the French Government. After determining this person’s position and proximity to the French couple, I have deemed the information they gave me to be credible enough to share publicly in the event that something happens.
In short, this person claims that the Macrons have executed upon and paid for my assassination. Yes, you read that correctly. More specifically, that the green light was given to a small team in National Gendamarie Intervention Group. I am told there is one Israeli that is on this assasination squad and the plans were formalized.
Again, this person provided concrete proof that they are well placed within the French government apparatus.
Further to this point, this person claims that Charlie Kirk’s assassin trained with the French legion 13th brigade with multi-state involvement.
Journalist Xavier Poussard’s life is also at risk. This is deadly serious. The head of state of France apparently wants us both dead and has authorized professional units to carry this out.
I ask that every person RETWEET and share this.
I do not know who in the American government can be trusted, since this source claims our leaders are aware. But I have more specific information which is definitively verifiable, should they care to reach out to me.
To the brave official in France who did this because they were so moved by the evil of Charlie’s public execution to risk their own life— May God bless you. Truly.

Let all be revealed.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

WHY are markets crashing? Our logical explanation:

There is quite literally only ONE headline that can even be partially blamed for such a sudden market crash.

At 11:20 AM ET, the US Labor Department said the November and October employment "situation" will be released on December 16th.

By this point, the S&P 500 was already down -70 points from its high seen at 10:30 AM ET.

However, in the 40 minutes after this announcement, the S&P 500 crashed another -120 points.

We now know that the Fed is effectively entering another interest rate decision with an economic data blackout.

Markets do NOT like information asymmetry.

But, is this really enough to erase nearly -$2 trillion in market cap in a matter of minutes? In our view, this was just the "switch" that shifted sentiment. The reality is that investors are on edge in this market.

When a sudden decline begins, investors rush to the exit because the "bubble is popping." This works in the opposite direction as well.

When stocks surge, the rally accelerates quickly as capital rotates back into AI stocks, because "AI is the next big thing."

The reality is that we now live in a market where ANY headline can drive trillions of dollars of market cap in a matter of minutes for one sole reason:

Sentiment is more polarized than ever.

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

I've hesitated to post this all day but I'm going to now. Will probably lose me some followers but I have things to say and I've never been one to hold my tongue. I respect the exchange of ideas and a diversity of thought.

Political violence should be widely condemned by all and it's unfortunate that we are so eager to paint outcomes as a single faction's work. We do it every time, and so quickly. However the pendulum is forever swinging. It was just three months ago that two Minnesota lawmakers and their spouses were shot at their respective homes in the same night, two of them fatally (Melissa Hortman and husband), all Democrats. Some recall the 2017 Congressional baseball game shooting targeting Republicans. Infamous and awful. 2017 was also the Charlotte car ramming incident that killed 1 and injured 35 people protesting against the Unite The Right rally, mostly progressive victims. In 2018 César Sayoc pled guilty to 65 felony counts for mailing pipe bombs to various Democrats and Trump opponents. Last year we had the horrific attempt on President Trump's life at a rally that he amazingly survived. Another Trump rally that summer had a man arrested with guns and a fake passport. These are just the first things I thought of. This is not an exhaustive list and isn't meant to encapsulate all political strife in this country, before anyone lists more tragedies. Let us not compete. I only bring these up because in my view it's important not to allow single events to deepen our partisan trenches any more than they already are. I see a lot of folks suggesting all our violence emanates from one direction but history says otherwise. It is becoming too easy to dismiss whole swaths of our countrymen as violent lunatics when most people are good and decent and law abiding. Charlie Kirk's murder is an abysmal tragedy and we should seek the ultimate justice against his perpetrator. Just as those who carry out any heinous crimes should be punished. Think we can all agree on that last bit.

Memories are short. Emotions are sky high. People are enraged, and rightfully so. But we are not tearing apart at the seams solely because of the efforts of left or right. We're tearing apart, in my eyes, because the social contract has been destroyed and people increasingly feel they've lost any agency to improve their own lives and leave their children a better world. Our communities are fraying. The classic American dream is dead, replaced by a fevered race to try to gamble thine self into wealth or risk drowning in five figure net worth hell with zero prospects and no property of your own. This is a soul crushing fact we must face as a nation. As I said earlier today, the very fabric of civil society feels as though it's being pulled apart. And whomever is tugging the threads surely benefits from seeing us divided by ideologies rather than united in any capacity.

This is not a cry for any one party, I have no partisan allegiance. I think it's all a big cabal as I've said consistently for a long time. But I hate feeling as though we're allowing the republic to be ripped apart by an unidentifiable evil. Events are in motion that cannot be easily undone, and it is heartbreaking to think that the nation my son inherits will be worse than the one I knew. We are being tested and so far we are failing. I'm not sure what we're supposed to do, but unanswerable grief and dread appear to loom over us like a cloud, dark as obsidian on a breezeless night. My soul aches.

Social media is designed to divide us. It is working.

Know that you are loved.

Goodnight. ❤️

[Real Mac Report @RealMacReport]

🚨Just In: Charlie Kirk was shot today at an event in Utah.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

AI feels like 1999 all over again.

Everyone senses it’s revolutionary, capital is flooding in, and optimism has temporarily suspended the laws of logic.

Yet today’s AI is less a wise oracle and more a brilliant but unreliable prodigy; fast, articulate, capable, but prone to inventing facts with confidence. Studies estimate LLMs “hallucinate” up to 27% of the time, with factual slips in nearly half of outputs. These aren’t malicious lies; they’re a feature of the design. The model is trained to produce an answer, not necessarily the right one. Think of an eager intern who always wants to impress, even if it means bluffing.

This gets worse when mastery matters. Press an AI, and it may concede one moment… then double down the next. In high-stakes contexts, that’s not quirky, it’s dangerous.

None of this means AI isn’t transformative. Productivity gains are real. Businesses are retooling. Workflows are shifting. But we can’t confuse speed with wisdom or polish with truth.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

#BTC $ETH #Crypto

The end of the cycle is near.

We might be in the final 3-6 weeks, but we're likely in the final 3-6 months of this cycle.

That’s the bad news.

The good news? The most significant gains usually happen at the end.

The rules are simple: to play the game, you must place bets.

But if you lose all your chips, you can’t play anymore.

Play smart. Manage risk. Take your shots.

Yes, the end is now in sight. But you can do this!

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Bull cycle 2015-2017 = 75 wks +/- 2
Bull cycle 2018-2021 = 75 wks +/- 2
Bull cycle 2022-2025 = 75 wks +/- 2 puts top in week of Sep 22 +/- 2 so Sep 15 to Sep 28 expect top if cycle repeats
Range for top = 125k to 145k if cycle repeats
@The_JDK99

[נדב איל Nadav Eyal @Nadav_Eyal]

1. The Israel-Iran war: The first day.
We are now about 15 hours after Israel launched what it labels a *preventive strike* against the Islamic Republic of Iran - targeting its nuclear facilities and ballistic missile sites.

Here’s a short recap of what’s happened - and what it means.

First, this is not an *operation*. It’s not a *strike*. Israel is now **at war** with Iran. And Israel’s defense establishment understands that well.

I spoke a short while ago with a senior Israeli security official. His most important message was directed at the Israeli public:
"Prepare for Iran’s response, don't underestimate what they can do. It will be substantial and lethal".

[CryptoFace @RealCryptoFace]

Long everything this week
I smell Trump China trade deal type BULL action
yah heard it here first, see you at the top this week

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

The Everything Code TL;DR.

The labor force participation rate isn’t going to rise anytime soon – it’s set to keep declining over time. This is a structural problem…

We’ve got aging demographics, falling birth rates, and now the rise of automation.

Humans are already being replaced by AI and robots at a staggering pace, and that shift is only just beginning. This is deflationary.

It also reinforces the need for ongoing stimulus to keep the system afloat.

Fewer workers. More tech. Same debts…

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

In the past 2 months, 8 days have been responsible for 99% of the move from 75k to 110k.

The other 52 days were chop.

This is how it’s always been, and how it will continue to go.

The legs will get even steeper. Missing those 8 days is risky.

Time in > Timing.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Not financial advice
If you are young (under 40 to me is infancy) and have a good paying stable job, do NOT believe the "sky is falling" narrative. Instead, from here down keep buying quality U.S. equities, $SPY and/or $BRK.B

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

People are yet to understand that we have a macro hedge fund manager running the Treasury, not an ex-Central Banker.

He deeply understands liquidity impacts and how to drive financial conditions to drive liquidity and how that in turn drives the economy and markets.

His entire strategy is to lower the three legs of Financial Conditions - dollar, rates and oil to goose the business cycle (ISM)

Our GMI Financial Conditions Index is screaming higher (conditions loosening) as is Global M2 and even more importantly GMI Global Total Liquidity.

The effects should kick-in in the next week or two and the recovery in asset prices and economic data should be sharp in the coming weeks and should be persistent.

I'll do a full video on this for all on Monday. Can't stress how important this all is vs Tarrifs! "narratives"

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Forecasts are now estimating a GDP contraction

Indicating that a recession is likely coming

Is this the “Game Over” moment for the market?

A thread 🧵

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

8/ The effects of tariffs wouldn’t be felt immediately though

Studies of past trade wars show a lag of about a year between implementation and economic consequences

Depending on Trump’s actions, the impact could hit by 2026

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

Holding XRP short from 3.30s since inauguration. Would cut on breakout and look to re-enter higher. Only trade open atm.

Will look to bid BTC, SOL, ETH for short term plays back to highs assuming I see triggers in my areas of interest, which are all lower than here.

[Subtle_Soul @SubtleS0ul]

@AnthonySNY @PeterZeihan I think he gives a time horizon for the possible development and implementation in years of AI in prior video. If I remember right that is his expectation for AI's impact on this, it restricted within that time horizon. Might be worth a YouTube search of his channel for an answer