SūmerSports

Measuring football, play by play, with 500+ years of NFL experience behind the model. SūmerPass is live. A research platform made for diehards, by diehards.

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

SūmerPass is live. A football research platform made for diehards, by diehards.

Start free: https://t.co/xDKwttmifs

[Lindsay Rhodes @lindsay_rhodes]

Which teams have staying power?

I think these are the 3 stats that best tell us which teams are good:

*Scoring differential
*EPA/play
*Success rate

[Nick Gurol @run_the_sims]

I think its really interesting to see where players yards per route run comes from: air yards or yards after catch?

Yards per route run leaders, 2026 through Week 6 WRs with 120+ routes, TEs 100+):

1. Zay Flowers 3.77
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3.57
3. Mike Evans 3.41
4. Drake London 3.24
5. Puka Nacua 2.80
6. Christian Watson 2.64
7. CeeDee Lamb 2.63
8. Jaylin Noel 2.53
9. Jalen Coker 2.53
10. Nico Collins 2.52
11. Chris Olave 2.50
12. Brock Bowers (TE) 2.50
13. Tee Higgins 2.49
14. Matthew Golden 2.43
15. Parker Washington 2.39
16. Malik Nabers 2.36
17. Tetairoa McMillan 2.36
18. George Kittle (TE) 2.34
19. Dalton Kincaid (TE) 2.33
20. DeVonta Smith 2.26
21. Luther Burden 2.21
22. Garrett Wilson 2.17
23. Travis Kelce (TE) 2.17
24. Davante Adams 2.08
25. Tre Tucker 1.99
26. Khalil Shakir 1.99
27. Carnell Tate 1.95
28. Amon-Ra St. Brown 1.92
29. Keon Coleman 1.91
30. Ja'Marr Chase 1.88
31. Brenton Strange (TE) 1.87
32. Isaiah Likely (TE) 1.86

Data: @SumerSports

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

Stats & Scheme topic this week: Blitzing is Back:

- Defenses are blitzing more previous seasons
- Blitzing is the most effective it’s been in 5 seasons
- More defenses are playing two high + zone behind their blitzes
- Blitzes on 3rd & 7+ have been *very effective* this season
- DB + LB blitzes have been lethal for opposing offenses

[Timo Riske @Timo_NFL]

Playoff leverage for week 7, sorted by most impactful games.

I will follow up with a couple of notes on how to compute playoff leverage, because a lot of other numbers that you'll see are larger by a factor of 1.3-1.6

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

New on SumerPass:

You can now view player stats by role in addition to position. Dive into passing, rushing, receiving, blocking, pass coverage, pass rush and run defense metrics for all players in SumerPass.
https://t.co/ohbuTkHrr0

[Shawn Syed @SyedSchemes]

Caleb Williams had 8 20+ yard completions against the Patriots

The Eagles and Cardinals both have 9 20+ yard completions on the entire season

[Shawn Syed @SyedSchemes]

Caleb Williams (8) and Drake Maye (2) combined for 10 20+ yard completions in Week 7

That is the 2nd most combined 20+ yard completions in a game this season, per @SumerSports

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

Caleb Williams spread the ball all over the field tonight.

His +0.38 EPA per dropback is the 5th-highest single-game mark of his career.

[Shawn Syed @SyedSchemes]

Caleb Williams had 8 20+ yard completions against the Patriots

That is tied for the most by a quarterback in a game this season, per @SumerSports

[Shawn Syed @SyedSchemes]

Caleb Williams throwing between the numbers against the Patriots, per @SumerSports:

*11/14, 163 yards, 1 TD, 57% success rate

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

Tonight's Bears win over the Patriots is the only non-Bills game this season where both offenses averaged at least +0.30 EPA per dropback.

Drake Maye: +0.33
Caleb Williams: +0.38

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

Just three games this season have seen both teams register at least +0.3 EPA per dropback:

Bills vs. Lions (Week 2)
Bills vs. Rams (Week 5)
Bills vs. Raiders (Week 6)

[Sam Bruchhaus @sambruchhaus]

Bears typically run a screen at about an 11.3% rate.

Through three quarters and change, they have ran WILDLY less against the Patriots.

[Ben Linsey @benlinsey_]

Drake Maye when pressured tonight through 3 quarters:

9 / 10, 114 yards, 1 TD
2 scrambles, 19 yards
1 sack (-1 yard)
10.2 yards per pressured dropback

Data: @SumerSports

[Sam Bruchhaus @sambruchhaus]

Ater that touchdown drive, per @SumerSports...

BEARS: +0.46 EPA PER PASS (solidly top quarter)
PATRIOTS: +0.42 EPA PER PASS (solidly top quarter)

I LOVE FOOTBALL!

[Matt Stopsky @MStopsky]

Another big pass play out of heavy personnel by the Patriots

[Sam Bruchhaus @sambruchhaus]

Ozzy Trapilo has allowed 3 pressures in the First Half against the Bears, per @SumerSports

Two versus Gabe Jacas.
One versus Milton Williams

Will be interesting to see how the Patriots' pass rush attacks in the second half.

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

Caleb Williams average depth of target coming into the game: 6.09 yards (31st of 33 QBs min. 100 DBs)

Caleb Williams average depth of target in the first half against NE: 8.21 yards (0.41 above league average)

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

Coming into Week 7, Drake Maye had attempted multiple deep passes (20+ air yards) in every game and at least one deep pass in every half.

He didn't attempt one in the first half against a Bears defense that's allowed the highest EPA per deep pass attempt in the league.

[SūmerSports @SumerSports]

TNF Preview 🧵

Drake Maye has a good chance to hit some deep shots against the Bears.