Surprisingly, oil commentary on CNBC not followed as closely in Times Square as Knicks finals games...but happy to have honored Oakley while discussing SoH "opening" prospects.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 53 YEARS, THE KNICKS ARE NBA CHAMPIONS 🏆
New York defeats San Antonio 4-1 in the NBA Finals, capturing their third championship in franchise history!
Now Live: Super-Spiked EP217: Long-Takes From The Road: Vegas, Vienna, ZeroHedge, and Oil Macro Crunch Time⚡
A few oil macro oriented thoughts today following an interesting week that started at a fuels distribution conference in Las Vegas just prior to last weekend and ended in Vienna on Monday at the OPEC Secretariat where I moderated one of two non-OPEC supply outlook panels as part of OPEC's 19th Annual Technical Meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries.
Our key message today is that the promise of the Strait of Hormuz re-opening following the ceasefire that was announced just about two months ago is giving way to an entrenched stalemate that suggests company executives and investors should brace for both the opportunity and turmoil that comes from big jumps in oil prices but also the inevitable pullbacks that follow as supply/demand clears. We expect that process of super volatility to be a repeatable feature of the current era. While high volatility is often thought of as depressing equity valuations, which is true, it also will depress the instinct by companies to spend capital, which in turn will prove supportive of profitability. How best to value volatile cash flows in publicly-traded equities is always a challenge and theme we will continue to focus on.
▶️ Watch the 13-minute video below.
Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction
1:40 ZeroHege “Oil Debate” With Jeff Currie
5:56 Valuing Oil-Exposed Equities In A Super Vol Macro Backdrop
8:06 OPEC Meeting Takeaways
10:34 On A Personal Note
#SuperSpiked @ArjunNMurti@SuperSpiked
🔁 REPLAY: Earlier this spring, Veriten Partner Arjun Murti delivered a keynote address at the 12th Annual Garfield County Energy & Environment Symposium, hosted by Garfield County (Colorado) and Colorado Mesa University.
Arjun explored the global energy landscape through the lens of his core framework: "Everyone Deserves To Be Energy Rich." His presentation examined energy demand, economic growth, affordability, and the realities of meeting the energy needs of a growing world.
▶️ Watch the full one-hour presentation here: https://t.co/66JPiHCUdr
@ArjunNMurti@SuperSpiked@ColoradoMesaU
Veriten Partner Arjun Murti recently joined Jeff Currie on an episode of Zero Hedge hosted by Ash Bennington for a wide-ranging discussion on oil markets, geopolitics, energy security, and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Arjun and Jeff found common ground on the oil market outlook, making for what was largely a non-debate between two longtime energy market observers. One area where they differed was on the outlook for hyperscalers, with Arjun more sanguine on the durability of AI-driven investment and power demand growth than Jeff.
▶️ The conversation starts at the 46-minute mark of the video and runs for approximately one hour. Watch here: https://t.co/ENQmczHzME.
@SuperSpiked@ArjunNMurti@AshBennington@CommodMkt@zerohedge
Now Live: "Two Conflicts In The Past Four Years… People Care About Energy Security" – Steven Kobos, Excelerate Energy🎙️
Today on #COBT we had the pleasure of hosting Steven Kobos, President and CEO of Excelerate Energy. Steven has served as President and CEO since 2018 and previously spent 11 years as a member of the company’s Board of Directors and corporate counsel. Throughout his career, he has worked across global energy markets, including Kuwait, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Finland, Germany, and the Middle East.
Excelerate is a global leader in flexible #LNG infrastructure solutions, focused on expanding access to reliable, affordable, and secure natural gas. The company operates one of the world's largest fleets of Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) and provides integrated LNG solutions spanning the entire value chain. We were thrilled to hear Steven’s perspective on the evolving and increasingly complex global energy landscape.
@Excelerate_EE@SuperSpiked@ArjunNMurti
Divestment was always idiotic as a policy. If you thought sector profitability was going to remain poor, then fine. In fact, profitability is now much improved and is on-track for a good decade ahead. We are not going back to 2020-23 insanity no matter who wins future elections.
Thank you to @zerohedge for inviting me on to join @AshBennington and @ArjunNMurti for a great discussion on US oil reserves and where we are headed.
Long before Iran, we were already seeing the consequences of years of underinvestment across global energy and commodity supply chains. Spare capacity has become increasingly concentrated, inventories remain tight and physical markets are far less resilient than many assume.
The Iran War didn’t create these conditions, it exposed and accelerated them.
Enjoyed this @zerohedge non-debate with Jeff @CommodMkt I think our only real point of difference ironically was on the outlook for Tech of all things. Our marketing language and styles have always slightly differed. But on oil fundamentals, there is little daylight in our views.
Veriten News: Veriten is thrilled to welcome Sharmila Mulligan and Karl Liapunov as Venture Partners.
Veriten’s investment strategy is built on the conviction that the most durable investment opportunities in energy, power, and industrial markets sit at the intersection of deep sector knowledge and practical technology adoption. Sharmila and Karl embody that conviction by extending our platform into ecosystems where the next generation of transformative companies are being built.
Sharmila brings 30+ years of leadership at the center of enterprise software, data, analytics, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a technology company founder, CEO, operator, board member, and investor. She has built and scaled technology companies from the earliest stages to IPOs and premium acquisitions – including Netscape Communications and Opsware – with best-in-class venture capital partners. She also serves on Fortune 500 company boards where she navigated some of the most complex energy and technology transitions of the last two decades.
Karl extends Veriten's reach into the Nordics and broader Europe — regions that have long punched above their weight in energy innovation, power technology, digital infrastructure, and industrial efficiency. His background spans venture investing, investment banking, and active involvement in startup ecosystems with a particular focus on energy.
Together, Sharmila and Karl reinforce what we believe makes Veriten different: a platform that sits credibly inside both the industrial world and the global technology ecosystem, and that can add real value to the companies we back. Their addition enhances our ability to find exceptional founders earlier, provide more relevant expertise across a wider geography, and connect portfolio companies with the large-scale energy and industrial customers who can accelerate their growth.
We are proud to have them as partners and are excited to continue building together.
Read the full announcement here: https://t.co/m5RV999hNY.
@SuperSpiked@SuperSpiked@ShahaniMulligan
Now Live: Super-Spiked 216: SoH Crisis Drags On, But Some Thematic Clarity Emerging⚡
As the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) Crisis completes its third month and on-again/off-again peace talks drag on, we are starting to see the outlines of various structural themes emerging, and, as importantly, some that are not. Thematically we see the following:
◾Power Surge!
◾Geopolitical Super Vol.
◾Molecules to markets.
◾New business models > pure-play (for larger companies).
◾Brownfield > greenfield (usually).
From an energy policy perspective, the Strait of Hormuz Crisis reveals what we are now calling the four Ds of country-level energy policy aspiration:
(1) Do as much Domestic production as possible;
(2) Diversify energy sources and technologies;
(3) Do more from existing assets; and
(4) embrace Digital transformation and AI.
📖 Read the full post here: https://t.co/KCmTzU4wyq.
▶️ Listen to audio recording here: https://t.co/ARCKQr5hml.
#SuperSpiked @SuperSpiked@ArjunNMurti
Now Live: "China Just Keeps Extending Their Lead" – Marshall Carver, Tulane University🎙️
Today on #COBT we were pleased to host Marshall Carver, Professor of Finance at Tulane University, who is currently in Beijing teaching students through a joint program with the University of China Academy of Social Sciences (UCAS). We have known Marshall since his time at Tudor Pickering Holt, and he has since built a 20+ year career in equity and debt research. He joined the Tulane faculty five years ago and teaches energy-focused courses including energy investment banking, financial modeling, risk management, and equity research. We were excited to visit with Marshall and hear his firsthand perspectives from China.
@SuperSpiked@ArjunNMurti@Tulane