Elijah Sureda

Helping the community beat the books by turning data into profit. Interactive dashboards for NBA, MLB, NFL, NCAAF, & Tennis. Website launches end of month🚨

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

🇨🇦Canadian Open

🇫🇷Arthur Fils | 🇺🇸Zachary Svajda

🇫🇷Arthur Fils -1.5 sets @ -130

This is where Arthur Fils gets right again. Losing to Rafael Jodar, and Jiri Lehecka back in march, lets not forget what Fils does on the hard courts. Before this, he has wins over Tommy Paul, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Valentin Vacherot, Dino Prizmic, and more. Svajda advances after Denis Shapovalov retires, and Svajda also retired less than 2 weeks ago. Lets get into the numbers.

On the year, Fils holds a 23-9 record overall, and a 13-6 record on hard, compared to Svajda who holds a 27-18 record overall and 19-8 record on hard. The difference is in ELO, In the last year or on hard, Fils dominates in AVG OPP ELO, and in Last 12 months, and overall hard ELO. Svajda's ELO in the last year on hard look closer but he has been racking up wins, and even vs lower opponents this adds up.

Svajda gets his first serve in 59% of the time, and wins 75% of them, compared to Fils who gets it in 66% of the time, and wins 73% of first serves. Second serve advantage goes to Fils, who is at 57% compared to 52% for Svajda (Remember, this metrics come vs tougher opponents for Fils). The metrics have Svajda as a slightly better returner but pretty much a toss up, however when we factor in competition we can lean to Fils.

There is no question Fils should absolutely get this done, so I will be betting he does so in 2.

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

🇨🇦ATP Montreal

🇮🇹Matteo Berrettini | 🇦🇷Mariano Navone
🇵🇱Kamil Majchrzak | 🇫🇷Gael Monfils

Berrettini + Majchrzak ML @ -102

Big day of tennis ahead of us, I have a lot of leans and will be live betting a ton today, nothing beats tennis when it comes to live betting. Ill continue to stress this. If you guys have any questions about any matchup, reply or send me a message and ill let you know what I think.

Keeping analysis short for today, continue to work on the website, needs to be out later this month so stay tuned.

Berrettini has dominated this head to head 3-0, all matches played on clay. Navone has always struggled on hard, but had a decent run earlier this year, stringing together some good wins, but I dont think this is going to be enough. This is also a match I would look to get into live, but I wanted to give out a play so were gonna take the ML early.

Gael Monfils I think he can make a set competitive and then the magic will run out. Expect a close set then for Kamil to close it out.

#Gambling𝕏 #SportsPicks

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

Tennis plays coming out tomorrow morning

Trying to get this website out in about 3 weeks. Full interactive dashboards for NBA, MLB, and Tennis are ready to go. Working on NFL and then NCAAF and the site is a full go.

Will be posting a preview of how everything looks very soon 🚨

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

@freesidbitches Don’t let them know this, the golden prices will be gone. Let them think she’s horrible

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

Saving 2 match points to double fault to lose the match, pure class. Have yourself a night Elina Svitolina👏🏽

Whoever had her as a favorite vs Eala must’ve been on drugs

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

@medd911s Over 22.5

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

🇺🇸Washington Open

🇯🇵Naomi Osaka LIVE ML

Again, this is what I mean by laying off the heavy favorites and waiting for the value to present itself live. Cocciaretto is tricky and has been playing tough tennis here, now we can jump on Osaka at the price. She should absolutely win this, that was the analysis pre game, and if she loses we can all make fun of her and how she cares more about what she’s wearing to court than her actual game.

BET IT

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

At least Paul Skenes has Livvy Dunne, cuz that’s the only thing he has. Getting smoked by the Reds, this is crazy.

Paul Skenes is ass cheeks. Banned for life

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

Pirates @ Reds

Pirates First 5 Moneyline @ -150

I like this bet quite a bit, so hoping it doesn't bite me in the ass. Lets get into the numbers.

Hunter Greene has not been good so far. 7.06 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP vs Lefties, where he could see 7 of them, allows a 0.896 OPS and a 0.389 WOBA to lefties. He throws a fastball 52% of the time and the Pirates are the best team in the league in terms of WOBA vs this pitch (It also only has a 15% whiff rate). His second pitch is the slider, where the Pirates rank 3rd in terms of WOBA. This is a very favorable matchup for the Pirates.

I am also expecting Paul Skenes to bounce back, coming off 2 rough starts, he also has a favorable matchup here. The reds in their last 5, and last 10 games have been poor vs RHP, and their are 9th worst vs the fastball, and the second worst vs the sweeper, Paul Skenes 2 main pitches. On the season, the Reds rank 25th in OPS vs RHPs, and the Pirates rank 1st in OPS vs RHPs.

#Gambling𝕏 #SportsBettingX

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

Pirates @ Reds

Pirates First 5 Moneyline @ -150

I like this bet quite a bit, so hoping it doesn't bite me in the ass. Lets get into the numbers.

Hunter Greene has not been good so far. 7.06 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP vs Lefties, where he could see 7 of them, allows a 0.896 OPS and a 0.389 WOBA to lefties. He throws a fastball 52% of the time and the Pirates are the best team in the league in terms of WOBA vs this pitch (It also only has a 15% whiff rate). His second pitch is the slider, where the Pirates rank 3rd in terms of WOBA. This is a very favorable matchup for the Pirates.

I am also expecting Paul Skenes to bounce back, coming off 2 rough starts, he also has a favorable matchup here. The reds in their last 5, and last 10 games have been poor vs RHP, and their are 9th worst vs the fastball, and the second worst vs the sweeper, Paul Skenes 2 main pitches. On the season, the Reds rank 25th in OPS vs RHPs, and the Pirates rank 1st in OPS vs RHPs.

#Gambling𝕏 #SportsBettingX

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

I’m trying to encourage people, because I know most of them do (not saying you do), will add a bunch of heavy favorites like Osaka to a parlay when this is dumb to do. Like a previous comment said, a lot of heavy favorites lose a lot of times, so instead of doing this, just lay off and hope to get better odds. Even if through point by point, you can get better odds than the pre match. If she ends in straights, then we move on, and wait for the next one. Parlays aren’t bad, but the way people make them they definitely are

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

If you don’t think it makes sense I don’t know what else to tell you. Obviously if she won the first set, but Cocciaretto is scrappy, she wasnt going to just blow her off the courts, so while most of you guys hold that -600+ in a parlay, I’ll hold my +105 straight bet, and if she loses she loses, but I’ll gladly take that value any day. You don’t need to take heavy favorites just to bring the juice down in a parlay

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

@ZeemanMatt Then she wins it, and you stay off. But there are plenty of opportunities especially when look at challengers and even ITF. Tennis betting live is one of the few sports where there’s value constantly, just advising people to take advantage of it

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

I’m very aware of this, all I am doing is reiterating live betting is one of the best things to do in tennis. This match is not close to over, Osaka can very well still win this, and a lot of people hammer the -600+ line when there are opportunities to get players at a better price. Osaka at +105, I will gladly back at the price

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

🇺🇸Washington Open

🇺🇸Jessica Pegula | 🇷🇺Anna Kalinskaya

OVER 19.5 games @ -150

This is an official play for me. Liking it quite a bit. Not only do the numbers support an over, but Jessica Pegula herself says she is not 100% in this tournament. At her press conference, she admitted to not having a ton of prep, and that she wasn't going to play here but did anyways, mostly out having fun. This is exactly why I waited to live bet her. She is not fully in it, just getting back into things, and this could very well be just a warmup for her to get back into things. Also, all of their previous matches have gone to 3 sets. I know Kalinskaya was frustrating yesterday, but she was clearly out of it from the horrible start she had. She made it out, can now get to reset and play another. I don't think were getting the best version of Pegula tomorrow, Kalinskaya has always had success at this tournament, and this can cash in 2 without needing much. It is worth backing in my opinion, given the circumstances.

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

Great day betting. I advise everyone to get into live betting. Whatever tools you have use it for this, especially in tennis. With Over/Unders, not as frequent you get more value, but with sides, absolutely you do.

I know a lot of people for example had Jessica Pegula in a bunch of parlays, or Anna Kalinskaya. Both were too expensive to play and waiting to get them live was the move and both cashed. Mensik and Nakashima over again was another live value, getting over 2.5 sets after Mensik drops the 1st was great, things like this.

More plays coming out tomorrow morning just like today🚨

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

@TenvyBets Leaning Tabilo just because of the price, he shouldn’t be an underdog. But I think the over is the much better play here

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

Jessica Pegula LIVE ML🚨

She has never let me down, I don’t expect that to start today vs Magdalena Frech. She knows what the state of American tennis is at the moment, she can’t fall victim like the rest

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

🚨We’re witnessing one of the greatest duos in Tennis history🚨

Anna Kalinskaya and Double Faults 🏆

Thankfully Janice Tjen hit one of the worst net slams I’ve seen, shoutout to her she a real one

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

🇺🇸Washington Open

🇫🇷Ugo Humbert | 🇺🇸Ben Shelton

OVER 23.5 games @ -135

This one didn't require much analysis. We already know how these games go. Lets get into the numbers.

Ben Shelton has a higher SOS-adjusted Dominance Ratio on hard, and leads the head to head 1-0, this match going 3. Long story short, 2 strong servers, 2 poor returners. Ugo Humbert is returning at 25% vs First serves and Shelton is at 27%.

Ben Shelton is addicted to 3 set matches, and I do believe he wins this as well. This bet was easy to me. Not much analysis needed.

#Gambling𝕏

[Elijah Sureda @SuredaAnalytics]

🇺🇸Washington Open

🇫🇷Terence Atmane | 🇨🇱Alejandro Tabilo

Leans: OVER 22.5 games | Tabilo ML

Close to pulling the trigger on Tabilo. I disagree with this price, he should not be at plus money. Lets get into the numbers.

Terence Atmane has been struggling this year. He is 13-20 overall, 8-9 on hard, and 2-8 in his last 10 games. Alejandro Tabilo holds a 32-20 record overall, 7-5 on hard, but is 4-6 L10.

Both have faced similar competition, but Tabilo has the higher ELO in the last year both overall and on hard. Both possess powerful serves, on the year, both get their first serve in over 62% of the time, and both are winning 74% of their first serves. On top of this, both are not good returners. On hard, Atmane wins 24% of 1st serve return points, while Tabilo wins 28%. 3 sets is common for both players, both have good wins on hard this year, both have beaten Jodar, I expect a back and forth match throughout.

#Gambling𝕏