SurenBT

I only follow people I need to listen to make decisions, and sometimes to laugh. That’s all.

[SurenBT @SurenBt]

@OakStoneTrading @AirbnbHelp @bchesky Sadly the way the customer service team handles removing retaliatory reviews from guests undermines the integrity of its own policy and the legitimacy of the review system. Airbnb prioritizes guests with bad intentions over those with great experiences. I had the same experience

[spencer 🦈 @Unpop_Science]

When I moved to Florida I realized there are millions of people who have been stewing in rage for years over the lockdowns.

It really made me understand that the core animating force in US society is selfishness. The whole freedom thing is a thin veil for a sense of entitlement.

[Brendan @TimingChalk]

Let me introduce you to Seattle. Climate Pledge is surrounded by a massive landmark in Seattle and multiple fun activities like the science center, Parks and Pop Culture Museum. T Mobile and Lumen are surrounded by many businesses, apartments and an entertainment venue.

[Martín del Palacio @martindelp]

Aquí el anuncio entero de Nike para el Mundial. Es una absoluta locura. Seguramente el mejor comercial de futbol de todos los tiempos. Vale cada segundo.

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

Even small gestures of affection can have a big impact on our well-being.

When a girl faces stress, if her mom touches her hand, she sweats less. If they have a close relationship, the mere presence of her mom is enough to alleviate anxiety.

Love is a source of strength.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

This is the most OUTRAGEOUS deal I've seen in my 45 years on Wall Street.

SpaceX just disclosed Musk's new compensation package:

He gets up to 200 million super-voting shares if SpaceX hits a $7.5 trillion valuation, establishes a permanent human settlement of at least ONE MILLION people on Mars, and deploys roughly 100 terawatts of space-based computing power.

Let me put the 100 terawatts in perspective:

The entire electricity generation capacity of the United States is around 1.2 terawatts. The comp plan asks Musk to build more than 80x America's entire power grid... in orbit.

This is a science fiction screenplay that somehow landed in front of the SEC.

But here's why it actually matters for your portfolio...

The S-1 reportedly claims a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with over 90 percent attributed to AI. CapeFearAdvisors flagged this one cleanly: when Palantir went public, it disclosed a $119 billion TAM and the SEC reviewed and accepted it.

SpaceX is claiming a market roughly 240x BIGGER.

Now let's talk about what is actually being sold here:

Reported 2025 revenue is approximately $15.5 billion. Starlink delivers around $11 billion of that with healthy margins, and the launch business is genuinely dominant. The problem is xAI - the AI piece doing all the heavy lifting in the trillion-dollar valuation pitch.

xAI generated just $210 million of revenue in the first 3 quarters of 2025 while burning through $9.5 billion in cash.

Ben Brey and Rupert Mitchell - a former Fidelity portfolio manager and a former head of equity capital markets at Goldman and Citi between them - ran a serious discounted cash flow on the actual operating businesses and arrived at roughly $400 billion. Lawrence Fossi covered their work recently and the math holds up.

The IPO is being marketed at $1.75 TRILLION.

The gap between what these businesses support and what Musk is asking the public to pay is roughly $1.35 trillion of pure narrative.

Then layer on what we just learned last week...

The New York Times investigation revealed Musk personally borrowed $500 million from SpaceX between 2018 and 2020 at rates as low as 1%, while bank prime rates sat around 5%. The same SpaceX has been used to bail out SolarCity, prop up Tesla during cash crunches, and absorb xAI when the AI losses became unmanageable.

This is the same playbook he's run for two decades.

Use a privately controlled entity as a personal piggy bank, and when the bills come due, find new investors to absorb the losses.

The IPO is structured to keep that game going FOREVER.

The Texas reincorporation strips away Delaware's fiduciary protections. Controlled-company status on the Nasdaq eliminates independent board requirements. And retail is being offered up to 30% of the offering (3x the normal allocation) because the institutions who actually do the math are quietly stepping away.

Here is the part that finishes the case for me:

Roughly $40 billion of the IPO proceeds are already spoken for before a single dollar reaches operations. About $23 billion retires SpaceX debt. Another $17 billion retires the high-interest debt sitting on xAI and X.

This raise is not funding the future. It's just plugging existing holes that retail investors will now own.

In my 45 years I've never seen a deal where the comp hurdle is colonizing another planet.

I've never seen a disclosed TAM that exceeds verified comparables by two orders of magnitude.

I've never seen a company asking the public to fund the retirement of debt incurred by separate private entities controlled by the same individual.

Every red flag I've watched precede a major bust over four decades is sitting in this prospectus, in plain sight.

The Tesla mispricing is being repeated on a far larger scale.

And this time the bag is being handed directly to retail.

Don't be the one holding it.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

@jonstewart huge fan. 💯 you should have Lyn on your show. Her book "Broken Money" is a the best out there by far and is exactly the quality that you tend to appreciate. Get her on soon.

[Mel @Villgecrazylady]

This guy is my new favorite

[Marci Shore @marci_shore]

I've taught European history for 30 years. Americans have always asked me how the Holocaust was possible, how Germans could have enabled a madman reveling in mass murder to carry out his plans. Now we can see in real time how this is enabled; now we have front-row seats.

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

Trump is a predatory capitalist who exploited America's legal system, its ethical norms, liquid capital markets, and its people's appetite for spectacle to acquire financial and later political power.

What he's beginning to confront is that the world of nation-states is anarchic, that there are a handful of actors that really matter, and only so many people you can burn before no one wants to transact with you anymore.

Lashing out in order to force a resolution is a strategy that has worked for Trump in his career in real estate, as a media personality, and during his political rise because he wasn't inhibited by the same social norms and reputational concerns of the counterparties he transacted with and because his unscrupulous lawyers and easy access to credit could help paper over most of his problems.

The problems Trump now confronts, however, have no basis in law. His adversaries, therefore, cannot be procedurally encumbered with discovery requests and depositions that drag the conflict out for years. Unlike his career in business, he cannot simply declare bankruptcy and move on.

This is scary because it means that Trump finds himself in a corner with no acceptable off-ramps. Because of how powerful America is, and because he is its president, the damage he may be willing to cause to Iran, its people, and the world before he finally comes to terms with his predicament will weigh on this country for many years to come.

[Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 @JosephPolitano]

Congratulations to Seattle's Sound Transit, America's fastest-growing train network, which is opening an 7-mile, 3-station extension across Lake Washington today!

This is the system's 5th new segment opened in 2 years, continually pushing ridership up to new record highs!

[Aaviin_ohin @aaviinbulkhan]

Хөөрхөн хүү вэ

Галаа хүү 5 настай. Тэрээр өнөөдөр 10 гаруй км тэмээгээ хөтөлж явна. Аав ээж нь малаа тууна, машина барина. Хаврын нүү��эл эхэлсэн учир хүн бүр завгүй….

Увс Тариалан сум 2026.03.13

[Лхамхүүгийн Мөнхбат @L_Munkhbat0528]

Хархираа Түргэний сүрлэг уулст хаврын нүүдэл эхэллээ😍😍

Spring migration begins beneath the majestic Kharhiraa–Turgen Mountains.
Nomadic life continues, just as it has for centuries.

Увс аймгийн Түргэн сум
2026.03.10

#NomadicLife #Mongolia #KharhiraaTurgen #SpringMigration #Nomads #SteppeLife #MongolianCulture #Nature #CamelCaravan #NomadHeritage #wonderful #wonderful_places

[Lutaa @LutochirT]

Вокзалын арын цэцэрлэгт хүрээлэн, мод бутыг устгаад, барилга барьж байна. @KhNyambaatar цэцэрлэгт хүрээлэн байгуулна гэж үлгэр ярьж суухаар байгаагаа хамгаалах юмсан.

[Maryam @hell_line0]

Well, when a child is conceived, the DNA split is 50/50 from both parents. Except for one small detail: mitochondrial DNA. It’s passed down only through the mother and never through sperm.
Which means something interesting: all living humans can trace their mitochondrial line back to one woman, not one man.
And every daughter born continues passing that same line forward.
Happy Women’s Day 💐

[Demetri Kofinas @kofinas]

"Trump and much of American political culture are no longer able to process abstract concepts of any sophistication. So, for Trump, there's no such thing as 'the economy' or 'the market.' There are companies and CEOs and nothing else.

For him, great power politics is like a Hollywood movie—there’s no capacity or bandwidth to deal with things like culture and power or anything abstract. It's about good guys and bad guys, and victory is expressed by killing the other guy.

Trump might be inclined to call this a victory because if the bad guy is dead, things now enter a realm that he can't process — transforming Iranian society.

It's not that he doesn't want to do it. It's that these things are not part of Trump's brain."

— @MacaesBruno on @HiddenForcesPod

[Greg Bretz @gregbretz]

@NickKristof @StarTribune I wish @EpsilonTheory wasn't so depressingly accurate with this piece from 2024. We are officially in the ravine. https://t.co/I5nQtkE7la

[SurenBT @SurenBt]

@EpsilonTheory You're the only man with courage and moral values among bigger fin-twit accounts. While others are drooling over the money and power, or hiding behind their fragile egos you have been consistently writing about the truth. I thank you for that!

[Bruno @ThePopStage]

New video of Shakira dancing to Madonna’s music in 1990 has resurfaced online ❤️.

[Gerlee-𝕏 @XGerlee]

Үйлээ үзэж байгаад л нас барлаа…
Монголчуудын хамгийн муухай төрхийг хамгийн и��ээр үзэж, туулсан хүн байж. Хэчнээн удаа зодуулж, гэмтэж бэртсэнийг нь хэн ч тоохгүй

Дараа төрөлдөө Монголд битгий төрөөсэй. Хүнийг хүн чигээр нь хайрладаг, хүнлэг сайхан улсад төрөөсэй. Дөнгөж жилийн өмнө хутгалуулж байсан, харин одоо нас барсан гэнэ.

“Өнчин хүнд эзэн олон” гэдэг ч үнэндээ энэ ядарсан хүний араас явах хүн байсангүй. Өнчин, өрөөсөн болохоор нь таарсан газарт нь зоддог байжээ.

Хэрэв түүнийг хамгаалж өмгөөлөх хүнтэй, баян чинээлэг байсан бол тэгж доромжлох байсан гэж үү?

Энэ бол бидний өнөөгийн арчаагүй байдал.
Ум сайн амгалан болтугай.🙏🙏🙏