Black Swan Analyst

Analyzing swans. Currently researching AI risk. Not financial advice.

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@MikeMcCormick_ Unfortunately to the public I think it currently feels closer to Feb, 15 2020

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@mattyglesias Not much tax revenue if it’s soon!

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@JBKSchlossberg AI is genuinely the issue and danger of our time. Alex is honest in his concern here, if the same thing would have happened at Anthropic I think he’d be just as honest in his assessment of the situation

[Tony Diver @Tony_Diver]

Exclusive:

Iran shut down a British power plant for four days in an unprecedented cyber attack, @Telegraph can reveal tonight.

It is thought to be the first time that hackers affiliated to the Iranian regime have succeeded in closing down such a facility in the UK, and believed to be the most successful cyber attack of its kind.

The incident took place at the same time as a series of attacks on US water infrastructure that affected 12 states last month.

The British attack was on a small electricity producer and had no adverse effect on national power generation or supply.

But it demonstrates the power of Iranian hackers to infiltrate and shut down national infrastructure.

In response, the Government has briefed energy CEOs on how to keep their facilities safe.

Story w/@RozinaSabur and @mattotele

https://t.co/AFfuH3Ih4t

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@ziv_ravid You just get ready brother...

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@dfrsrchtwts 103 days - 3.4 months https://t.co/hZuCo2GsK5

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@mattyglesias It hurts Ds in Iowa to have el-sayed as the nominee in Michigan… that’s also why they want him nominated

[ADL @ADL]

The Holocaust is not a political prop. Invoking concentration camps does nothing but trivialize the systematic murder of six million Jews and coarsens our public discourse.

Hate directed at any entire religious community — Jewish, Muslim, or otherwise — undermines our shared security and values.

Invoking false and inappropriate Holocaust analogies against a Jewish elected official is particularly offensive. Leaders should reject Holocaust distortion, not amplify it.

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@OneJerseySchorr Uh… no?

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@PollTracker2024 Name the tunnel after trump. That way he’ll make it beautiful and it’ll also be true

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@dontkuss @theemmamont Uhhhhh 90% safer than human drivers does still meet 10% of the crashes and deaths

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@AndyMasley Can we organize a community conversation of some type with the Council-member making it clear how strongly we feel here?

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@sharkbiotech Would love to subscribe to your newsletter, how can I?

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@umichvoter what was it in 2021??

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@Jacob_Frey This is incredible. Nice work

[Jacob Frey @Jacob_Frey]

We set out to make housing more attainable and affordable in Minneapolis, and we are. I'm incredibly proud of our progress, let's keep going.

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@DsrPrivate What are the probabilities the Supreme Court knocks tariffs down? I can’t seem to see any betting markets on it

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@DsrPrivate Claude is saying the opposite to be clear.

[Black Swan Analyst @SwanAnalyst]

@DsrPrivate I’m confused for the distributions wouldn’t the most effective options strategy be to buy the ATM and sell the peak of the red strangle?

Ie what you are trying to do is find the place where the probability distribution btw blue and red is most misaligned and do the opposite