Did everyone underestimate Microstrategy ?
Shares went from $7 to $333 between 1999 and 2000. After the March 3 2020 updated financial data they dumped by 62% to $120 in just one day.
The fall likely triggered the collapse of the dot-com bubble era.
https://t.co/NHlod3dLUU
Capital is fleeing efficiency for security. Morgan Stanley just mapped where it's going.
The Iran conflict isn't an isolated shock. It's the latest accelerant in a complete rewiring of global trade that's been building since early 2025:
• Geopolitical risk is now constant, not episodic. Disruptions spread faster across fragmented supply chains
• Companies are abandoning pure cost optimization for resilience, control, and strategic alignment
• Capital is being redirected toward regions offering stability and redundancy over efficiency
• Trade is becoming regionalized. Multiple power centers are replacing the single global system
• Investment is flowing into capacity building across multiple geographies as exposure gets diversified
And here's the kicker: this isn't temporary crisis management. Morgan Stanley calls this "a new phase of investment" where supply chains get rewired.
The multipolar world redefines competition itself, not just by geography, but by each nation's tech capabilities, trade policies, and input costs.
That changes every portfolio allocation.
@RWA_Inc_ x ST0x is live.
60,000 traders now have direct access to tokenised equities.
First of many. ST0x is shipping.
CEO Kevin Yunai joins us tomorrow to walk through the launch.
10AM UK / 9AM UTC. Set a reminder.
Spain's economy is growing three times faster than the euro area while bond spreads stay stable.
That combination doesn't happen often. Here's what Goldman found:
• Spain GDP forecast: 2.1% growth in 2026 vs 0.7% for the euro area
• Highest productivity growth per employee among EU's four biggest economies since 2021
• Unemployment at lowest level since 2008, employment rate at all-time high
• Spanish bond spreads remain tight despite energy shock hitting other European nations
• Higher-value jobs in professional services, finance, and ICT up more than 20% since 2019
And here's the kicker: Spain is the only nation among the EU's top four expected to lower its debt-to-GDP ratio over the next three years.
That's structural outperformance, not a cyclical bounce. Labor productivity gains are sticking while fiscal position strengthens.
The market is pricing this in. Spanish sovereigns trade stable while other European bonds face pressure from energy concerns.
Private credit is having a moment as higher rates and reduced bank lending shift financing to private markets.
Banks pulled back from lending when rates spiked. Companies still needed capital. Non-bank lenders stepped in to fill the gap:
• Software companies now make up a larger share of private credit than high-yield bonds
• Most loans are unrated or below investment grade
• Capital typically locked up for years, not tradable daily
And here's the kicker: this isn't replacing traditional bonds.
Private credit sits between public fixed income and private equity on the risk spectrum. Investors trade daily liquidity for structural protections and potentially higher yields. The illiquidity premium is the point, not a bug.
That changes the conversation around portfolio construction. It's not bonds vs. private credit; it's how much illiquidity premium fits your timeframe.
Oil shocks used to trigger recessions. This time they're triggering something different.
Vanguard just downgraded euro area growth outlook but kept it positive:
• Euro area growth: 0.8%, down from earlier forecasts but still positive
• US economy: relatively insulated as major energy producer
• Asia: most exposed, with shipping times from Asia up 18 additional days via Cape route
• Energy efficiency gains mean oil spikes no longer = broad economic contraction
And here's the kicker: inflation, not growth collapse, is now the primary macro risk.
The structural changes are real. Economies shifted toward less energy-intensive sectors. Supply chains diversified. Energy efficiency improved since oil shocks of 30 years ago.
That changes the conversation. Instead of positioning for recession, traders should expect slower growth with persistent inflation pressure.
Goldman sees an entry point in Indian equities while everyone else is running for the exits.
Here's what the conflict has done to India so far:
• Equity markets saw one of the worst quarters since 2008
• Rupee weakening as dollar flows reverse
• Energy import costs spiking across the economy
• Foreign investors pulling capital back to US assets
And here's the kicker: Goldman's team says this exact playbook has created the best long-term entry points over three decades.
Their thesis is simple. Energy prices eventually cool. Corporate earnings absorb the import shock then bounce back to trend. Investors recognize the resilience and return as geopolitical risk fades.
The pattern has held through every major crisis since the 1990s.
Goldman's calling this the opportunity.
Position via ST0x.