๐จ NHL POTD ๐
๐ฏ Joel Eriksson Ek โ Anytime Goal
๐ฐ +300 ODDS | 1 UNIT
๐ WHY I LIKE THIS PLAY:
โญ Eriksson Ek ATG (+EV)
5/10 last 10 games (50%)
6/19 this season (32%)
+229 fair value vs. +230 market
Minnesota projected for 3.34 goals
๐ here's the thing about devigging to books like mgm, b365, bovada, kambi
these books are so soft and so exploitable, they have 0 incentive to put resources into being sharp. these books just limit you at any suspicion of hunting value
MGM in this example isn't even offering an under here
but we see some of these soft books pop on devig rois sometimes. why? well these books are so bad at pricing they will be on the extreme side of things relative to the market and other recc books
while they will offer a goalscorer at +1000 while everyone else is at +600, it also swings the other way
+100 pricing on a market value in the +300s. which would give the appearance of mgm being sharp when in reality they are just bad at assigning value. you will not make money in the long run like this. locktopus is 100% right, it's so misleading
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY ๐
Filip Hronek +800 | DraftKings
Here's what caught my attention:
โก Just 1 game since his last goal
๐ DVP Rank 30th
๐ฏ 2.93 projected team goals
๐ +3.6% expected value
๐ฐ Fair odds: +769
๐จ SYN NHL GOAL SCORER CARD ๐
5 names. 3 slips.
Tonight's card:
๐ฏ Jamie Benn 1+ Goal (+689) KALSHI
๐ฅ Kaprizov / Snuggerud / Stutzle (+1446) FD
๐ฃ Bertuzzi / Jack Quinn (+1198)
Which player do you trust most to find the back of the net? ๐
๐จ SYN NHL GOAL SCORER CARD ๐
5 names. 3 slips.
Tonight's card:
๐ฏ Jamie Benn 1+ Goal (+689) KALSHI
๐ฅ Kaprizov / Snuggerud / Stutzle (+1446) FD
๐ฃ Bertuzzi / Jack Quinn (+1198)
Which player do you trust most to find the back of the net? ๐