Synthesis

Trade the Moment

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

introducing @synthesistrade public beta

trade the moment

https://t.co/QvtaSOhLg2

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@washingtonpost Prediction markets still see big ambiguity

https://t.co/EqthUnZ5AF

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Why No is still very much alive for Trump's AI federal review market at 58¢

"Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?"

The EO dropped today: "promoting advanced AI innovation and security"
Signed. Live. On the white house website.

In the past 24 hours, the market climbed to 65¢ and then dropped to 44¢.

This means the traders are not confident enough either for YES or NO.

Sounds familiar?
- Trump posts something.
- Market waits on exact wording.
- One phrase decides everything.

Read the EO yourself, link in the replies.

Share your reads👇

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

EO: https://t.co/lTy6Icctbv

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Why No is still very much alive for Trump's AI federal review market at 58¢

"Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?"

The EO dropped today: "promoting advanced AI innovation and security"
Signed. Live. On the white house website.

In the past 24 hours, the market climbed to 65¢ and then dropped to 44¢.

This means the traders are not confident enough either for YES or NO.

Sounds familiar?
- Trump posts something.
- Market waits on exact wording.
- One phrase decides everything.

Read the EO yourself, link in the replies.

Share your reads👇

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Trade now: https://t.co/IlZDj4N1sF

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@DinaPowellMcC There is a 44% chance that Trump orders federal review for AI model releases by June 30

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@mkratsios47 @POTUS The market is pricing Trump orders federal review at 60¢

https://t.co/IlZDj4N1sF

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@FirstSquawk Same trap, different day

https://t.co/97ojldwf1u

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Trump posted "the blockade will now be lifted" last week.
And Polymarket said - not an announcement.

"Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?:May 31?"

May 23, market was at 83¢.
May 31, market came down to 0.

And Poly's clarification came back
- Ambiguous reason: the post was "subject to final approval"

One phrase buried in the statement changed everything.

Then 30-mins ago Trump said:
"COULD have blockade lifted by labor day"

Could vs Will
Same trap. Different day.

The June 30 market is sitting at 56¢ right after that statement.

56¢ on a president who already fooled this market once with his wording.

How do you trade a market where one WORD made 83¢ -> 0?

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Trump posted "the blockade will now be lifted" last week.
And Polymarket said - not an announcement.

"Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?:May 31?"

May 23, market was at 83¢.
May 31, market came down to 0.

And Poly's clarification came back
- Ambiguous reason: the post was "subject to final approval"

One phrase buried in the statement changed everything.

Then 30-mins ago Trump said:
"COULD have blockade lifted by labor day"

Could vs Will
Same trap. Different day.

The June 30 market is sitting at 56¢ right after that statement.

56¢ on a president who already fooled this market once with his wording.

How do you trade a market where one WORD made 83¢ -> 0?

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

https://t.co/i0EBUU6EkT

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Will MicroStrategy sell any bitcoin by May 31 flipped to Yes but now sits at 50% chance!

The bitcoin was sold prior to May 31st however it was just announced today.

A pre clarification has been issued for 1PM EST.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

$MSTR - MICROSTRATEGY SELLS 32 BTC FOR $2.5M AT AVERAGE OF $77.135M: FILING

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Trade now: https://t.co/GlJlEyFKER

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Israeli forces cross the litani river again by may 31 is sitting at 82¢ right now.

88¢ to 47¢ drop within an hour

here's the problem with YES:
crossing already happened north of the river
but traders say you can't prove a new crossing within the market's timeframe

Al Jazeera just dropped a report 1 hour ago, but can it be counted?

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

Will internet be restored in Iran just jumped from 31¢ to 70¢ in 10 minutes?

Tehran is reportedly back online but traders are split on whether other regions have restored access.

Cloudflare and Netblocks the primary resolution sources are both updated however credible reporting has not caught up.

Only 3 days left.

YES or NO both are possible.

What is your read?👇

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@BNOFeed Closely watching this

https://t.co/3YG9PO2y5Y

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@InsiderWire 👀

https://t.co/LbuPqf82hd

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@BNOFeed Markets do not believe in the Ebola pandemic

https://t.co/3YG9PO2y5Y

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@TravelGov https://t.co/3YG9PO2y5Y

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@Osint613 Only 12% chance there is a deal by May 31

https://t.co/FxePO2ZLbj

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@TouchlineX Closely watching this market

https://t.co/TOHSNoO177

[Synthesis @SynthesisTrade]

@TouchlineX Shakira, Karol, Eminem, David Guetta, Justin Bieber looking like possible performers

https://t.co/KypxXReVaE