Volatility in southern #Syria is not sudden. It stems from wartime and post-2018 legacies. My latest research traces this evolution and what it means for state authority, armed networks, drug trafficking, and foreign intervention.
@ArabReform_ARI
https://t.co/AFVC5dqwTp
๐งต Is #Syria turning the page on decades of corruption? Do Syriaโs recent anti-corruption initiatives signal genuine reform โ or are they largely superficial gestures?
In our latest publication for @U4_ACRC, @JosephDaher19 and I present the first comparative assessment of reform and anti-corruption efforts in:
1๏ธโฃ Security sector โ Ministry of Interior & Ministry of Defence.
2๏ธโฃEconomic governance โ public sector employment, economic agreements, state funds, and institutional restructuring.
Full report: https://t.co/ZF4syTmFIK
4/ With variations across the two sectors, we find that:
(A) Transparency has increased in visibility, but it has yet to reach core decision-making processes. The processes and reasoning behind policy formulation remain largely opaque to the general public
(B) Public participation is limited and operates more as a signal of openness than as a genuine channel for citizens to influence policy.
(C) Accountability mechanisms represent a formal break from the previous regimeโs practices, yet they remain largely symbolic in the security sector and are applied selectively in the economic sphere.
(D) Public participation follows a similar pattern. Consultative forums, meetings, and invitations to dialogue are positive developments, but they often function more as signals of openness than as genuine channels for influencing policy or institutional behaviour.
๐งต Is #Syria turning the page on decades of corruption? Do Syriaโs recent anti-corruption initiatives signal genuine reform โ or are they largely superficial gestures?
In our latest publication for @U4_ACRC, @JosephDaher19 and I present the first comparative assessment of reform and anti-corruption efforts in:
1๏ธโฃ Security sector โ Ministry of Interior & Ministry of Defence.
2๏ธโฃEconomic governance โ public sector employment, economic agreements, state funds, and institutional restructuring.
Full report: https://t.co/ZF4syTmFIK
3/ We find that anti-corruption measures initiated by the transitional government represent a departure from former regime practices, but progress remains limited by:
(A) Structural constraints: The authorities inherited institutions with limited administrative capacity, which hinders rapid or comprehensive reform.
(B) Political incentives: The fragility of the transition encourages a focus on stability and power consolidation rather than deeper and rapid institutional change.
2/ We find that recent anti-corruption measures initiated by the transitional government mark a departure from former regime practices, but progress remains limited by ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ and ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐.
๐งต ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ ๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐๐ฝ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐?
Our paper with @JosephDaher19 for @U4_ACRC provides the first assessment of reform & anti-corruption efforts in Syriaโs ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ & ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ sectors
โจhttps://t.co/pAapeaE98v
Volatility in southern #Syria is not sudden. It stems from wartime and post-2018 legacies. My latest research traces this evolution and what it means for state authority, armed networks, drug trafficking, and foreign intervention.
@ArabReform_ARI
https://t.co/AFVC5dqwTp
#Turkeyโs manoeuvres in #Syria & #Libya are key components in a bold strategy to strengthen its position and secure long-term leverage in the #Mediterranean โbut the path is not without challenges
My latest with @emad_badi for @AtlanticCouncil@ACMideast
https://t.co/AhcFC7SG2K
A few Syrians shared with me that they were surprised to see what they thought were casual chats with foreign journalists quoted in reports. A reminder: ethical principlesโsuch as informed consent & explaining the purpose & potential use of interviewsโapply in Syria as elsewhere.
3/ The process will involve a representative from the Ministry of Defence, signalling HTSโs intent to co-opt, rather than confront, pre-existing civilian and military structures in #Daraa.
๐งต 1/ Yesterday, a meeting was held between representatives of armed factions in #Daraa and Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS. Previous tensions were reportedly diffused, with an agreement reached to integrate local factions into the military institution.
๐งต Challenges to #HTS approach in southern #Syria:
1/ Meetings between Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS and many leaders of armed factions in #Daraa Governorate seem to reveal a broad yet fragile consensus that conceals underlying tensions.
2/ Local armed factions will begin reorganising, focusing on dismantling or absorbing smaller autonomous groupsโthrough persuasion or coercionโwhile excluding individuals with criminal records. Efforts will prioritise weapons collection, border security & maintaining local order
4/ For many local stakeholders, unless HTS recognises Daraaโs unique postwar trajectory and adjusts its strategy to engage with the regionโs distinctive dynamics and power structures, the likelihood of escalating tensions in southern Syria will continue to rise.
๐งต Challenges to #HTS approach in southern #Syria:
1/ Meetings between Ahmad al-Sharaa of #HTS and many leaders of armed factions in #Daraa Governorate seem to reveal a broad yet fragile consensus that conceals underlying tensions.
3/ This resistance seems to be fuelled by HTS's wartime history, marked by tense relations with many local armed factions, and its efforts to rebuild its capabilities through covert activities in the border region following the regime's return to #Daraa in 2018.
Syrians are closely monitoring every report published and will expose and challenge any narrative that misleads the audience and disrespects the suffering of real victims.
Great work by @VeSyriaE exposing @CNN misleading report by @clarissaward
https://t.co/zvnWw8F3Bh
Even if not staged, why is a white journalist turning a manโs trauma into a spectacle? Guiding him out of prison like a savior fantasy feels exploitative at best, voyeuristic at worst.
Countless real, devastating stories of Syrian captives deserve to be told with dignity.