Thierry Demolder

Once a dealer, always a dealer
Keep it simple

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

🚨 TODAY'S INTEL:

- ECB holds at 2% despite inflation miss - Fed signals cooling labor market

- Macron: "US openly anti-European"

- Ethiopia hosts secret RSF camp (4,300 fighters)

Full breakdown → https://t.co/JX4VBHKqI5

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

🏦 CENTRAL BANKS TODAY:

ECB officials double down on 2% rate hold despite inflation at 1.7%

Fed's Hassett warns: job gains slowing as immigration + AI reshape labor market

BoE's Mann: Trump tariffs feeding UK inflation via China price hikes

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

🌐 GEOPOLITICAL RISKS:

China dumps US Treasuries Macron warns renewed EU-US clash Ethiopia training 4,300 RSF fighters (UAE-financed) Taiwan tensions escalate

Complete brief: https://t.co/JX4VBHJSSx

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

🇺🇸 21:15 GMT: Atlanta Fed's Bostic speaks

Dovish but recently slightly hawkish counterweight to Waller (19:30). Look for:

- Any softening on rate path
- Regional economic outlook
- Labor market assessment

#Fed #Bostic #AtlantaFed

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

🇺🇸 18:30 GMT: Fed Governor Waller speaks

Hawkish voice on the FOMC. Key focus:

- Has his view on March pause shifted?
- Reaction to recent data
- Terminal rate conviction

#Fed #Waller #FOMC

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

🇩🇪 16:00 GMT: Bundesbank's Nagel speaks

Speaking alongside Lagarde

Regional German perspective, limited market impact.

Worth monitoring for any divergence from ECB consensus messaging.

#Bundesbank #ECB

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

🇪🇺 16:00 GMT: ECB President Lagarde speaks

The only marquee name on today's calendar. Watch for signals on:
- Terminal rate guidance
- March policy stance
- Euro-area fragmentation risks

#ECB #Lagarde #CentralBanks

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

The #BoE vote split tells the story.

Four members already voted to cut.
The hold was a timing choice,
not a #policy rejection.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

#ECB split on the euro:

Rehn, Villeroy and Kazaks see #EUR strength as a disinflation risk.
Kocher pushed back, calling it mainly USD weakness.

Different views, same decision.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

The #BoE downgraded its #growth outlook
while holding rates.

That combination usually precedes easing,
not tightening.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

Lagarde downplayed #FX effects on inflation.

Several national governors did not.

That contrast matters for how flexible
the #ECB really is going forward.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

The #BoE did not just hold rates.

It explicitly said Bank #Rate
is likely to be reduced further.

That is forward guidance doing the signaling.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

The global #risk backdrop is not one crisis,
but many smaller ones running in parallel.

That makes risk harder to #hedge,
not easier.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

Inside the #ECB, views on the euro are not aligned.

Rehn, Villeroy and Kazaks warned that further #EUR strength
could lower inflation and growth.

Kocher argued recent moves reflect USD weakness,
not genuine euro strength.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

#Oil risk remains #asymmetric.

Downside needs confirmed de-escalation.
Upside only needs one negative surprise.

That balance still favors caution. 😁

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

Not all risks are equal.

Strategic #risks (Iran, Russia, energy, security) affect pricing.
Political risks (elections, scandals) mostly affect volatility.

#Markets are still focused on the former.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

Geopolitical risk snapshot:

• US–Iran nuclear talks resumed, but remain fragile.
• Russia–Ukraine #diplomacy limited to tactical steps.
• US–Russia #arms control now without a framework.

Key market channels:
Oil, FX, EM risk.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

A common theme across current #geopolitics
👇
More talks.
More meetings.
Very little de-escalation.

Negotiations are active,
but strategic incentives remain unchanged.🙃

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

#Energy related risks remain elevated.

US–Iran talks lack momentum.
Nigeria security situation has deteriorated.
Russia–Ukraine still unresolved.

#Oil risk premium remains sensitive to headlines.

[Thierry Demolder @Systematic_FX]

#USDJPY
The bid remains relentless.

This weekend’s election will provide further clarity.
The move to 152.10 was short-lived following intervention rumors.

Resistance sits at 157.70–157.90

I would prefer to see a Friday close above 158.05–158.10 to confirm further upside