烦事执生

FRM, Credit risk analyst, Data scientist.

[Tom @TomSzczypka]

China is deliberately choking the global supply of Indium Phosphide (InP), the material that makes every laser in every AI data center work.

Reuters confirmed: US officials have visited China multiple times to resolve this. China is still blocking export approvals on purpose. They want to maintain the bottleneck.

Chinese producers like Yunnan Germanium (https://t.co/wyCjVX0HNv) and Guangdong Xiandao are scaling capacity fast (Yunnan investing $28M to reach 450K wafers/year, shipments up 74% in 2025). But even if export approvals are granted, overseas shipments will be "limited."

Switching InP suppliers requires lengthy qualification cycles. You can't just find a new source overnight. 12-18 months...

This will help explain the recent price action in the below names.

WINNERS:

$SIVE.ST CW lasers ARE InP devices. Policy-duration shortage extends their 14-quarter laser supply constraint indefinitely. Every month China maintains this, SIVE's pricing power widens.

$LITE Substrates come from Sumitomo + JX Advanced Metals in Japan. Entirely outside the China export gate. Their competitor's supply gets squeezed while theirs is control-immune. This is the cleanest relative advantage.

Win Semi (https://t.co/la0Q2W86G1) Only pure-play III-V foundry on earth. InP wafer fab capacity is scarce globally. Tighter substrates = their existing capacity commands higher pricing.

$AEHR Sole-source wafer-level burn-in testing for InP and SiPh devices. When every wafer is more valuable because the input material is scarce, the cost of shipping a bad one goes up. Testing intensity rises with scarcity.

AIXA (https://t.co/B1hBTJxtCC) Makes the MOCVD equipment needed for InP epitaxy. Every country trying to build domestic InP capacity needs their tools. More fragmentation = more equipment orders.

$SOI.PA Photonics-SOI monopoly. InP scarcity makes the entire optical layer more expensive, increasing the value of every component in the stack including Smart Cut SOI wafers.

LOSERS:

$COHR Reuters specifically names Coherent as "mainly supplied by AXT." AXT manufactures IN China, inside the export gate. Even if approvals come, shipments will be limited. COHR carries a substrate risk that LITE does not. And switching requires lengthy qualification cycles.

$AAOI Demand is not the issue; laser/EML/InP component supply is. If AAOI cannot secure enough laser chips, capacity ramp can slow.

$AXTI AXT is a US-listed InP substrate maker that manufactures in China. Their entire equity value is an export-approval question. If approvals flow, massive upside. If they don't, the business model breaks for Western customers.

We are watching real-time supply chain warfare over AI supremacy. The companies that own the physical bottlenecks in this chain benefit every time the world fragments.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/krgBEJX0m8

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@AdameMedia @grok fact check

[GitHubDaily @GitHub_Daily]

做金融分析或投资研究，最头疼的不是缺少数据，而是数据分散在各个平台，分析工具又各自独立，想把供应链数据和投资组合关联起来分析，甚是困难。

最近在 GitHub 上发现 Fincept Terminal 这个开源金融分析平台，把特许金融分析师(CFA)级别的分析工具、人工智能自动化和跨领域数据整合到一起了。

内置完整的 CFA 课程分析模块，涵盖投资组合优化、现金流折现(DCF)估值、期权定价等专业工具，还集成了 20 多个投资大师的分析风格，像巴菲特、达里奥、索罗斯的投资策略都能直接调用。

GitHub：https://t.co/FZvNaKjPg9

最独特的是跨领域数据整合能力，支持 100 多个数据源连接器，能把航运数据关联到 GDP 预测，再映射到股票仓位，或者把地缘政治事件直接连到货币波动和期权对冲策略，自己组合出专属的分析指标。

还提供可视化工作流编辑器，通过拖拽节点就能搭建分析流程，甚至包括 3D 地球仪实时追踪船舶、飞机和卫星轨迹。

如果你正在寻找一个不受数据限制、能自由组合分析逻辑的金融研究工具，或者对传统金融终端那种"数据孤岛"模式有些厌倦了，这个项目值得一试。

[Barchart @Barchart]

$TLT short interest jumps to an all-time high 📈📈 Here we go!

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@FED41E39_ @andyz8818576155 🤣就是不想降存量房贷

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Do you know why this is so important? Read it here: https://t.co/bGL4Ze8Dyr

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@fupenglondon 以前没有推荐算法，多交流是能互换信息的。现在信息茧房太严重，各方偏见都被强化了😂叠加现在大家戾气都很重

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@zerohedge 😂seasonal smoothing

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@Sino_Market

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@Barchart Foreign debts or domestic? Domestic ones surely can be managed.

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@yanbojack 货币政策生效的前提是有人借钱

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@DavidInglesTV 😂but they have yelled that for a long time. A bazooka is not that useful unless you fire it.

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@odcventures @ShanghaiMacro Try hard not to catch the falling knife.

[Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacro]

As Richard Koo recently argued in an interview, “the key to technological innovation is profit. Without profit, nobody would participate in innovation.” In other words, without sufficient demand, the one-way bet on supply side economics may be counterproductive over the long-term

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@Sino_Market

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@PkZweifel 😂if you exclude China, you will probably get an opposite result.

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@tomaspueyo The turning point is the remove of gold standard. When money is debt and you create a kind of money that can only buy houses, the price of that stuff can only go up.

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@fxtrader Against the gods

[烦事执生 @SzuAndy]

@AndreasSteno Perhaps there's simply no demand?