Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide

*Head of Everything at Best of US Investors * Co-founder of Grinkmeyer Leonard Financial 2005 - 2022

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Past

This was a week of Micron earnings and an Apple price increase.

Micron blew earnings estimates out of the water, sending its stock up 15% on Thursday — the result of higher memory chip prices and fatter margins.

Apple announced on Thursday that it would raise prices on iPads and MacBooks due to rising manufacturing costs. The market responded negatively.

Present

Rising memory costs and the effects of inflation are beginning to surface.

Future

Every major innovation in history has followed the same arc: a market crash, then a solid rise. The railroad industry exploded as the East Coast and the Pacific Coast were finally linked by rail. The internet connected once-distant corners of the world through fiber optics. And now AI has reshaped our world faster than any life-changing technology before it.

So why would this time be any different?

#investmentcycle
#micron

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Debate: The Self - Improvement Premium

There is a single idea holding up a trillion dollars of committed spending, and almost nobody is pricing it directly. The idea is recursive self-improvement — the notion that an AI model can be turned loose to improve itself, generating better successors in a compounding loop. If that loop is real and near, the capex is rational front-running of the most valuable capability in history. If it is not, the capex is running roughly 100x ahead of revenue on the strength of a story.

#ai #aibuildout #stockmarket #stockmarketcrash

https://t.co/TR3Xws5KzG

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

@CodeByPoonam According to their website it cost $3999

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

NVIDIA designs the GPU. Cerebras designed the wafer.

One connects thousands of small chips. The other IS the chip.

For the fast inference market that powers every AI agent on Earth, that distinction matters.

Full BUS! deep dive at https://t.co/GonQNvo63t

Preserve. Protect. Grow.

Live Loud!

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

🧵 CBRS — Cerebras Systems

The only company on Earth that turned an entire silicon wafer into a single AI chip.

9 out of 9 analysts initiated at Buy today. $20B OpenAI deal. AWS partnership.

Here’s what you need to know. 👇

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

BUS! Positioning: SPECULATIVE

The technology is the best in the world. The customer base is the narrowest. Both are true simultaneously.

2% portfolio weight maximum. Wait for pullback to $200-$230. This is a 2-3 year thesis, not a momentum trade.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Bottom line:

CPI Wednesday.
PPI Thursday.
Sentiment Friday.
Warsh press conference June 17.

Four data points. One week. Maximum signal.

We’ll be live on Discord with real-time reactions.

If you’re not in the room — https://t.co/G5lcFABjFE

Preserve. Protect. Grow. Live Loud. 🙌

#CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #BUSInvestors

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Markets aren’t expecting a rate move next week.

CME FedWatch: ~97% probability of a hold.

But that’s almost beside the point.

What Warsh says, how he says it, and what the dot plot looks like — that’s what actually moves markets on June 17.

His first press conference will define his tenure.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

At BUS! we’re watching this week through our Engineered Compression lens.

Three simultaneous compressions running right now:
→ Dollar
→ Energy
→ Term Premium

Together they’re funding the AI capex supercycle.

This week’s inflation data tightens — or validates — that framework.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Now the backdrop that makes all of this matter more than usual.

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22.

His first FOMC meeting: June 16–17. One week away.

The FOMC has held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for 3 straight meetings.

April’s meeting produced the most dissents in decades.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

The most important inflation week of Q2 just started.

Two major prints. A new Fed Chair’s first meeting in 9 days.

Here’s what it all means — and what to watch. 🧵

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Friday June 13: Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Inflation is already the #1 consumer concern.

This print tells us if confidence is cracking — or holding.

Both matter for the second half of 2026.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Thursday June 11: May PPI at 8:30 AM ET.

April’s wholesale pipeline:
→ Final demand YoY: +6.0%
→ Stage 1 intermediate demand: +8.9%
→ Unprocessed goods intermediate: +20.9%

Wholesale prices tell you where retail prices are going.

The pipeline is still on fire.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Wednesday June 10: May CPI drops at 8:30 AM ET.

April’s read:
→ Headline YoY: 3.95%
→ 3-month annualized pace: 7.32%

Energy is the accelerant.
Services is the floor.

If May runs hot, Warsh walks into his first FOMC meeting with zero cover to cut.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

They need this to keep the train on the tracks.

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

We don’t guess which one wins.
We wait for confirmation.
We protect capital while the picture clears.
That is the trade.

LIVE LOUD!

https://t.co/FWmoK6bI7f

#BUSresearch #stockmarket #investing #semiconductors #Fed #SP500

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

The stock market rallied 20% in 9 weeks and created an estimated $50T in global collateral.
Friday erased $2.5 TRILLION of it in a single session.
Here’s what happened — and what comes next. 🧵

[Trent Grinkmeyer - Investing Guide @TAGLivingLoud]

Friday was a WARNING SHOT — not a confirmed regime change.
The primary trend is intact until the 62-day SMA rolls over.
But the collateral unwind is in motion. Two scenarios:
🟢 Semis stabilize → consolidation, dip buyers win the week
🔴 Yields stay elevated → Phase 3 signal, multiples compress further