Is this a warning sign of a private credit crisis, or just market panic? Blue Owl Capital, often considered a poster child for the private credit boom, closed at a record low as worries grow about the health of the $1.8tn market. The stock fell 1.4% to $8.45, slipping below its previous low from late 2022. It is now down 68% from its all-time high.
German industrial production worsens again. And deeply.
All sectors are in real trouble.
New industrial orders slump by 11%
-1.2% drop in industrial production YoY in January. Worse than consensus, which expected a bounce.
Industrial production remains weak, slightly above pre-pandemic level
via Bloomberg
💔 This is not AI — this is Kostiantynivka
The city in Ukraine’s Donetsk region continues to come under attack. The footage shows a local resident killed in a Russian drone strike.
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Oracle’s credit profile continues to worsen. The company’s CDS spread (cost of insuring against default) has climbed to 151bps, its highest level since 2009 – a warning sign not just for Oracle but for the broader AI sector. Markets are now pricing in a probability of default of >12%.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon criticizes Europe’s growing bureaucracy, calling it a serious obstacle, and adds that it’s their own bureaucracy that has driven business out, they’ve driven investment out, they’ve driven innovation out.
"Europe has a problem. It takes 27 nations, you know, to make a decision. they let their military drop dramatically, It's very bureaucratic
They've gone from 90% of the GDP of America to 65, that's not because America did anything bad to them, It's their own bureaucracy, their own cost.
They do some wonderful things in their on their safety nets, but they've driven business out. They've driven investment out. They've driven innovation out"
While I am still an active investor hooked on the investing game, at this stage in my life, I am also a teacher trying to pass along what I’ve learned about how reality works and the principles that helped me deal with it well. Since I have been a global macro investor for over 50 years, and learned a lot of lessons from history, naturally a lot of what I pass along is about that.
This article is about the important difference between wealth and money, how that drives bubbles and busts, and how that dynamic, accompanied by big wealth gaps, could prick the bubble and lead to a bust that is socially and politically disruptive as well as financially disruptive.
As always, I welcome your thoughts and suggestions.
https://t.co/8d4phifEix