Theo Chapsalis

Fixed Income

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@suchenzang @suchenzang Seriously guys will opt out if girl too smart ?! It's like saying "she's too pretty" or "she's too rich" or "she's too funny 🤣". Thought you cannot go wrong on those lol

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@agnostoxxx @agnostoxxx Higher real rates, higher DXY and all else is derived from there so Friday moves are sensible (at least indirection). Monday maybe a near term trough after everyone cuts risk?

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@Matans8442 @dampedspring Still Andy achieved the purpose of making us laugh 😂

What will be even funnier: if Andy's Sep puts end up ITM

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@jaysinjailagain @TheShortBear More like 5.5% down as per NQ futures. We think nore down on Monday?

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@NikLentz Then it's still a long

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@longshortmkts @GordonGekko I think it was meant to be a joke 😂🤣

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@AndreasSteno You got things like "long semis/Korea/tech" right. Mega calls and probably profitable, well done! But pls stop jinxing the ceasefire

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@Lifeinvestmoney Lol, I read it now that this is a parody account :)

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@Lifeinvestmoney Bonds could be a good (or not) now. But the concept above is not great in many ways:
1. 5% of 1million is 50k, not 500k
2. 50k now not the same value as 50k in 20-30y, there is a concept of inflation
3. What happens if yields rise to 6-7% and this bond position incurs mtm loss?

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@dampedspring Clear, thank you

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@yieldsearcher Apologies, not clear I get it: what's the trade that you recommend assuming the curve is wrong?

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@Brad_Setser @Brad_Setser : the only realistic, long term solution for a stronger currency should be higher near term real yields as you said. They will have to deliver it. Clearly the curve will flatten; 30y JGBs may even rally in the process

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@zerohedge You compare indices (SPX and CL) with a rate; this comparison is inaccurate. I get your logic and there may be a good point to be made ie "stocks have appreciated Vs bonds" but chart is not suitable. You could achieve save message through a total return chart though

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@dampedspring Nope this wasn't a bubble. The world is different post COVID given 1) more fiscal spending 2) structurally higher inflation 3) a broad acknowledgement that the diversification benefits of FI are reduced 4) Less demand for duration by real money accounts in the UK/EUR

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@dampedspring Lol, you made my day Andy!

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@dampedspring @dampedspring : High quality and honest write up. Thank you for sharing your thoughts Andy

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@AndreasSteno Think you called it well market-wise so congratulations 🎉 👍
The serious q's are : 1) spx still higher? 2) oil also higher? I guess bonds will reprice mostly on oil

[Theo Chapsalis @TCJnr]

@theaiportfolios Holdings not visible. It would be great to see what it picks, it's timing and sizing. It could be genius but people need to understand it's investment process