The Commodity Pulse

Commodity market intelligence. Agriculture • Energy • Policy. Evidence → Strategy. Where Markets Become Strategy.

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

China is buying U.S. soybeans. But not every buyer wants them.

SOEs keep buying U.S. beans; private crushers favor South America.

Same market. Different economics.

Physical access ≠ economic executability.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

The cargoes are coming back. The price isn't.

Qatar LNG access is recovering, but only ~16–20% of the winter JKM/TTF price shock has reversed.

Physical access ≠ economic normalization.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

India moved the edible-oil switching boundary.

Sunflower's estimated landed-fiscal gap vs SBO:
~$89/t → ~$7/t.
Palm remains cheaper. No switching proven yet.

Policy changed the economics.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Cheapest FOB ≠ cheapest executable tonne.

Australia: ~$308 FOB + $32 freight = ~$340/t CFR Indonesia.

Romania/Bulgaria: ~$280 + $65 = ~$345/t.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Brent reversed ~91% of its shock. Gasoil: ~59%. Gasoil−Brent: ~36%.

Yet prompt gasoil has normalized faster.

Same energy system. Different recovery speeds.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[Andrés Arango Maldonado @andres_mauric]

Gracias @FedepalmaOrg por la invitación @TCPMarkets presente en análisis de mercados y tendencias

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

SBO ≈ Gasoil.

But not because soybean oil rallied with energy.

The signal is the relationship: energy repricing changed the relative-value map around vegetable oils.

A price alone misses that.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

India port stocks:

CPO −10%
SBO +4%
Sunflower −6%
If duties change, 3 oils start from different physical positions. But stocks don't determine the next marginal buy.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

U.S. distillate stocks are rebuilding.

But 78.8% of the latest build came from PADD 3—and just 7.4% of its increase was ≤15 ppm.

More inventory ≠ uniform ULSD availability.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Products rose. Processor value barely did.

Meal +1.10 c/bu
Oil +3.41
Soy cost −4.00
Net +0.51

Theoretical proxy, not plant margin.

Product prices ↑ ≠ processing margin ↑

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Fuel already matters in U.S. grain rail costs.

At constant mileage, the higher BNSF fuel rate adds ~$4.56/t to corn and ~$4.03/t to soybeans.

But Sep is below Jul–Aug.

Material exposure ≠ current-shock transmission.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Malaysia Aug palm exports: 1.295 Mt.

Stock-flat sensitivity under the same Aug balance: 1.491 Mt.

Gap: ~196.6 kt / 15.2%.

Better exports ≠ sufficient absorption. The threshold changes when the balance changes.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

U.S. distillate stocks +2.087 Mb.

PADD 1 alone: +2.383 Mb.
Rest of U.S.: −0.296 Mb.
The rebuild is real—but concentrated.

Next test: does replenishment persist and broaden?

Source: @EIAgov

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Palm’s August balance loosened—but unevenly.

CPO stocks: +15.2% m/m
Processed stocks: −1.7%
Total: 2.824 Mt / +7.5%
Today’s buffer is larger. Forward B50/weather risk remains separate.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Argentina corn exports: +15% y/y.

Into North Africa: +45% / 6.5 Mt.

The gap matters. Replacement capacity depends on execution into a specific destination—not just national supply.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Crude available ≠ diesel available.

Global refinery throughput: ~−5 mb/d YoY.
Russia + Middle East + Asia diesel exports: −1.3 mb/d.
U.S. utilization: 98%.
The constraint is conversion.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

China can have plenty of soybeans while the next tonne remains unattractive to buy.

Brazil import economics: ~−CNY207–221/t.
Sinograin proxy: ~+CNY268–278/t.
Next gate: crusher runs.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

Same hub. Opposite inventory signals.

Fujairah:
Heavy distillates −15%
Middle +19%
Light +25%
The divergence matters more than the headline: scarcity can migrate across the barrel.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

An inventory draw can reflect weaker output or stronger absorption. Which would matter more for your procurement assumptions? Read the balance before changing the view.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy

[The Commodity Pulse @TCPMarkets]

U.S. refinery utilization: 98%.

Yet distillate stocks remain 14% below the 5Y avg—and PADD 1 fell 8% WoW even as national stocks rose.

Response ≠ resilience.

The Commodity Pulse
Where markets become strategy