@ABC I cannot see how the US can stop Israel from bombing Lebanon. I do not see how it can be part of any agreement or deal with Iran because we are not Israel and Israel is not the US. Israel can do whatever Israel wants to do when it wants to do it. Without the permission of the US
@CWNBreaking Only if the job goes unfinished. Stop pussyfooting around and finish this, or get out and take the public beating. Either way, do something!
@GDOladimeji@A_M_R_M1 You do realize that the US did not put its full force towards Iran, right? And they for sure did more damage to Iran than Iran did to the US. If you call surviving winning, congrats. But even roaches are hard to kill.
@TheLongView_R Well that falls under the DUH category. If 3 sides are a part of the way, it takes 3 sides to end said war. There are more than 3 sides in this war, admit it or not.
@hawak_eye Last time I checked, There has been more damage and destruction on the Iran side of things. Just because the people were not totally wiped out does not mean they won anything. Even roaches can withstand a beating and keep on.
@MaqsoodAsi Iran needs an agreement with Israel in regard to Lebanon, not the US. The US is not attacking Lebanon the last time I checked. #Iran#war#US#Israel
BREAKING: The ceasefire just ate itself.
The Head of Iranβs Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee just stated: after the Israeli aggression on Lebanon, all plans to open the Strait of Hormuz must immediately cease until there are assurances that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire. There is either a ceasefire on all fronts, or a ceasefire nowhere at all.
The entire premise of the deal was Hormuz reopening. Trumpβs condition was complete, immediate, and safe opening of the strait. Iran accepted. The ceasefire was built on that single exchange: pause the bombs, open the water. Brent crashed 13 percent. The S&P surged. The market priced peace.
Now Iran is threatening to reverse the only thing the ceasefire achieved because of something the ceasefire never included.
Three contradictions in 24 hours. Pakistan announced the ceasefire covers everywhere including Lebanon. Netanyahu said it does not include Lebanon and launched the largest IDF strike since Roaring Lion began: 100 Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes. Now Iran says Hormuz stays closed unless Lebanon is covered. The dealβs architect says it includes Lebanon. The dealβs beneficiary says it excludes Lebanon. And now the dealβs other signatory says the core deliverable is revoked unless the excluded front is reinstated.
This is what happens when a ceasefire is brokered through intermediaries who need both sides to say yes more than they need both sides to agree. Pakistan shuttled drafts between Washington and Tehran through five mediating channels in one chaotic day. Egypt bridged language. Turkey provided backchannels. China urged an off-ramp. The framework was drafted with sufficient ambiguity that Iran could tell Hezbollah it was covered and Israel could tell its public it was not. That ambiguity held for exactly 18 hours before the IDFβs 100-target strike forced Iran to choose between Hezbollah solidarity and Hormuz revenue.
Iran chose Hezbollah.
The implications cascade immediately. If Iran follows through and halts Hormuz reopening, the 15 to 20 vessels currently transiting under IRGC clearance codes stop. The yuan toll revenue that was funding reconstruction stops. The ceasefireβs only tangible achievement, the strait reopening that crashed oil prices, reverses. And Trumpβs conditional two-week suspension, which was explicitly revocable if Hormuz did not open immediately and safely, faces its trigger event on day one.
Trump has three options. Accept Lebanon inclusion, which means pressuring Netanyahu to halt strikes against Hezbollah, which Israel has refused. Reject Lebanon inclusion, which means Iran re-closes Hormuz, which voids the ceasefireβs premise. Or ignore the threat and continue as if the 15 ships passing through a yuan toll booth constitute an open strait, which means the Islamabad talks on Friday begin over a deal that both parties are publicly threatening to revoke.
The molecule crisis does not pause for diplomatic fractures. The crackers are rubble. The pipeline bypass just took a drone. The fertiliser is trapped behind the gate. The centrifuges are spinning. And the strait that was supposed to reopen as the warβs first peace dividend is now being held hostage to a front that was never agreed upon, by a parliament that legislated tolls on March 31, in a country whose supreme leader has not been seen in 39 days.
One ceasefire. Three interpretations. Zero days before collapse.
Full analysis on Substack.
https://t.co/0fIdGsM5qH
Iran is a waste of money. You cannot bomb the stupidity out of politicians and a people who think they will get x number of virgins when they go to their version of Heaven. #war#iran#breaking