Tropical Cyclone Outlooks

Long-Range TC Outlooks for the Southwest Pacific and Australia 📆 Updated monthly July-January 📍 Tweets by @drandrewmagee

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

Following TCO-SP’s 1st season of operation, this study (i) outlines how TCO-SP outlooks are generated and communicated, (ii) provides a post-season validation of TCO-SP performance on the 2020/21 SWP TC season and (iii) reports on user-perceived usefulness. Check it out 🔽

[Andrew Magee @DrAndrewMagee]

Recently published in @ametsoc BAMS, we shine a light on the recent performance of @TCoutlooks and show it performed v.well for the 20/21 SWP TC season. We also asked our subscribers to evaluate its usefulness. See link below. @DLorrey @UON_research
https://t.co/5VBi8OsPvt

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

@ICU_NIWA @MetService Great to work alongside a fab team! @DLorrey @BenNollWeather @chrisnoble_nz and others!

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

The 2021/22 Southwest Pacific TC season is fast approaching! Released today, TCO-SP is considered in the @ICU_NIWA TC outlook alongside NIWA analogue and international dynamical guidance, providing a consensus-based ensemble of TC risk. Check out the latest guidance below ⬇️

[Island Climate Update @ICU_NIWA]

2021-22 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook — a normal to slightly above normal number of cyclones expected this season 💨 🌴

🌀 9 to 12 cyclones are predicted between November 2021-April 2022

💪 3+ cyclones may reach severe strength

https://t.co/hS0KBT4tyf

[Andrew Magee @DrAndrewMagee]

Published today in @SciReports, we present a new long-range #typhoon and #supertyphoon outlook for the Western North Pacific basin and 7 countries, inc. China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines 👉🏾 https://t.co/BS94jyfNea

[Drew Lorrey @DLorrey]

Started drafting @ICU_NIWA tropical cyclone outlook for the upcoming SW Pacific 21/22 season! Chats with @BenNollWeather @DrAndrewMagee @chrisbrandolino @chrisnoble_nz & PI NMS colleagues will reach consensus on storm activity & risk via deterministic, analog and dynamical models

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

~6 weeks to go until the official start of the Aus/SP TC season!

September TCO-SP and TCO-AU updates out today. Check ➡️ https://t.co/gNU2H0CnbS

[Pacific Regional Climate Centre @pacific_rcc]

Cyclone season just over 2 months away? 🌀

Hard to believe!

We're getting ready to discuss this and much more at the 9th Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum [#PICOF9] on 21-22 October.

This year's sector focus is energy 🔋

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

Updated TCO-SP and TCO-AU guidance (August release) now available. Check it out here 👉🏾 https://t.co/lUvh0yEAzC

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

Check out the expected TC counts and probable ranges for locations across the Southwest Pacific.

Next TCO-SP update coming 18th August 2021.

@DLorrey @CWCL_UON @UON_research

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

July already! TCO-SP guidance now available for the 2021/22 Southwest Pacific TC season ➡️ https://t.co/PfhM4pgrvD

Below-normal TC activity expected for the basin:
▪️ Expected TC count = 9 TCs (7-11 TCs)
▪️ 85% chance of av. or below av. TCs (11 TCs or less)

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

There's only a few more days left to have your say! Please let us know what you think of TCO-SP outlooks!

Complete a short (5-min) questionnaire here: https://t.co/4N3E8b4pLV

Thank you! 👍

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

🚨 Calling all TCO-SP users - have your say on shaping the future of TCO-SP!

We want to explore end-user needs, understand how TCO-SP is being used and quantify user-perceived usefulness.

If you can spare 5 mins, see the anonymised survey here: https://t.co/RLqtVKpkVh - Thanks!

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

🚨 Calling all TCO-SP users - have your say on shaping the future of TCO-SP!

We want to explore end-user needs, understand how TCO-SP is being used and quantify user-perceived usefulness.

If you can spare 5 mins, see the anonymised survey here: https://t.co/RLqtVKpkVh - Thanks!

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

Detailed validation will be available on https://t.co/ZS6nytrdHT next week!

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

Today (30th April) marks the last official day of the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific TC season.

Seasonal validation of TCO-SP performance shows that TCO-SP successfully predicted a normal to below-normal 2020/21 Southwest Pacific TC season. Check out the summary below ⬇️

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

✅ Regional and island-scale guidance: for TCO-SP outlooks generated 4 months before the start of the season (July), observed TCs (Nov-Apr) fell within the expected range.

Successful validation highlights the value of producing long-range, regionally-specific outlooks.

[Pacific Regional Climate Centre @pacific_rcc]

The weather in the Southwest Pacific region has turned unsettled due to a pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Keep up to date with the latest forecasts from your national meteorological service!

https://t.co/roriSlUP4a

[Andrew Magee @DrAndrewMagee]

Thanks @Uni_Newcastle for the story outlining the impact our new Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) @TCoutlooks is having in Samoa.

Read all about it here: https://t.co/TTlXiqLHR6

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

JUST RELEASED: The January 2021 TCO-AU update for the remaining Feb-Apr 2021 Australian TC season is now live.

This is the final update for the 2020/21 Australian TC season. In May 2021, we'll evaluate TCO-AU performance for 2020/21.

Check it out here: https://t.co/rhf6JMwCCl

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

This is the 7th and final TCO-SP update for the 2020/21 TC season.

Evaluation of model performance will be shared once the season has wrapped-up.

[Tropical Cyclone Outlooks @TCoutlooks]

The January 2021 TCO-SP update for the remaining Feb-Apr 2021 Southwest Pacific TC season is now live.

Check out the latest guidance here: https://t.co/ZS6nytrdHT

@DrAndrewMagee @DLorrey @ICU_NIWA