The stock market just hit one of its most extreme warning levels in history, and barely anyone’s talking about it. One of Warren Buffett’s favorite long-term valuation metrics, just spiked to 200%.
Auto tariffs are HERE:
President Trump's "Liberation Day" will now include 25% tariffs on cars not made in the US.
This is set to add up to +$12,500 to the price of the average new car SOLD, but not MADE, in the US.
So, why are US automakers crashing?
(a thread)
High Yield Spreads are at their tightest levels since June 2007 (2.89%) & Investment Grade Spreads at their tightest levels since March 2005 (0.83%). Bond investors are reaching for yield & behaving as if there will never be a default cycle again.
Video: https://t.co/ATWXZB0qzX
JUST IN: US mortgage applications have dropped by 17.0% over the last week, the most since April 2020.
At the same time, the refinancing index fell by 26.3%, posting the biggest decline since March 2020.
This comes after mortgage rates have increased for the third straight week, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 6.52%, the highest since August.
On top of that, the mortgage purchase applications recorded its worst September since 1994.
As a result, the mortgage demand index is down ~60% since the January 2021 peak and sits at near the lowest level in 29 years.
Mortgage demand is still collapsing.
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, has officially hit a new record market cap of $3.41 TRILLION.
Over the last month, Nvidia has added ~$800 billion in market value and has again become the world’s second-largest company.
The chipmaker's value has more than TRIPLED in just one year.
Nvidia is now just ~$100 billion from exceeding Apple, $AAPL, and becoming the largest firm on the planet.
Meanwhile, the company's shares have rallied a whopping 190% year-to-date, making Nvidia the 2nd best performer in the S&P 500.
Truly incredible.
Average US family health insurance premium...
2000: $6k
2003: $9k
2006: $11k
2009: $13k
2012: $16k
2015: $18k
2018: $20k
2021: $22k
2024: $26k
That's a 342% increase since 1999 (6.1% per year).
(Note: US CPI inflation has increased 2.5%/year)
https://t.co/rQuXrxVXM0
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA earnings:
EPS $0.68 vs $0.64
Revenue $30.04B vs $28.73B
Announced a new $50 billion buy back plan
Watch party: https://t.co/fsUId9Cf57
NEW YORK JOINS IBM, MICRON IN $10 BILLION CHIP RESEARCH COMPLEX
New York state is joining chip companies to invest $10B in a semiconductor research facility at the University at Albany that is set to include some of the most advanced chip-making equipment in the world
The partners include $IBM, Micron $MU, Applied Materials $AMAT, and Tokyo Electron. The project will also acquire chip making equipment from $ASML
(Source WSJ)
$AMD was obvious to buy at $93 and many waited
$META was obvious to buy at $87 and everyone waited
$AMZN was a clear buy at $88 and people waited
$AAPL at $101 (this year) was the easiest money and people waited.
$SQ at $39 was extremely undervalued and many waited
$COST at its wedge breakout at $505 was easy safe money but people waited.
$JBLU at $3.30 with a market cap of $1 Billion was a steal and nobody wanted to buy it.
$ABNB at $104 holding at the 0.618 Wave 2 Fib was a very opposed buy because of one cities law against them…and many waited
The list goes on and on and this is from this year alone.
Do not listen to the negative stories you read online.
When the fundamentals and technicals aligns, it’s a buy, regardless of the noise.
If you keep waiting, you’ll always chase.
Negative news is far more common than positive news, nobody is going to do this for you and filter out the noise.
We will keep buying when everyone is scared to execute.
Watch and learn.