TīKLS

Researcher, Critical Analysis And Briefing HOA

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

Eid Mubarak

𝐓𝐈𝐊𝐋𝐒 sends warm wishes to all Somalis and Muslims around the world for a blessed Eid-Al-Adha filled with joy and peace.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

This information was disseminated by @TIKLS_ through verified sources and limited intelligence. The beginning of Somaliland recognition journey was a sensitive time marked by travels of officials including President Cirro, who today confirmed his first visit in October 2025.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

President of Somaliland Ciro made a secret visit to Tel Aviv in October where he met with Israeli intelligence officials. https://t.co/gHpdTrcY6p

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

1/4 ISS is concentrating on maintaining a presence in key valleys seeking supply routes and secure bases essential for their fighters. These areas have served as strongholds where militants could evade aerial bombardments and sustain their operations.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

1/1 Since April, Islamic State group in Somalia has resumed indirect attacks targeting camps and roads used by Puntland government forces. Reports indicate that these assaults carried out at different times have resulted in casualties including both deaths and injuries.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

1/3 Tocontain the small cells of ISS the PForces has launched a renewed and intensified mobilization.This time the focus is on involving armed local communities who have resumed conducting security operation These operations have taken place in the valleys of Jeceel Curar Miraale

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

1/2 Puntland forces together with their ally US-AFRICOM responded to the attacks carried out by IS-Somalia with effective airstrikes. These strikes took place mainly in the Jeceel area where several militants responsible for the series of assaults against local forces were killed

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

𝗧𝗜𝗞𝗟𝗦 ��𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 Intelligence reporting indicates that dozens of al‑Shabaab fighters recently infiltrated Yemen through illicit maritime smuggling routes raising concerns about deepening coordination among extremist networks in the region. Among those who arrived were three senior commanders, who slipped ashore before moving inland toward Shabwa and Marib.

Sources reveal that these leaders held direct meetings with operatives of al‑Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Shabwa with discussions centered on strengthening security cooperation and logistical support. The talks are believed to have focused on sharing battlefield expertise and preparing joint operations in unstable strategically significant areas.

The movements did not stop in Shabwa and Marib. Several al‑Shabaab members later traveled to al‑Bayda, where they reportedly engaged with Houthi militants. Intelligence suggests that these encounters explored discreet forms of collaboration including facilitating fighter mobility and exchanging logistical assistance despite the public rhetoric of hostility between the groups.

Additional reporting highlights al‑Shabaab growing role in cross border smuggling networks that traffic weapons and narcotics on behalf of the Houthis.
These operations provide the militia with supplementary revenue streams while reinforcing their military capacity.

The smuggling activities are managed through complex maritime and land corridors exploiting Yemen rugged terrain and vast areas beyond effective government control. This environment grants extremist networks significant freedom of movement and concealment amplifying regional security risks.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

𝗧𝗜𝗞𝗟𝗦 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 IS‑Somalia branch of the violent extremist group Islamic State has recently released imagery from the Al‑Miskaad mountains. The footage intended as propaganda instead highlights the group decline. Fighters appear poorly equipped with some dressed in civilian clothing such as macawiis signaling shortages in supplies and discipline.
The majority of those visible are foreign nationals underscoring the sharp reduction in Somali participation. This shift confirms that local recruitment has collapsed leaving the group increasingly isolated from the communities it once sought to influence.

The reliance on foreign fighters and the evident lack of resources reflect disrupted funding streams and weakened internal networks. Rather than projecting strength, the imagery reveals a group in survival mode. While this diminishes IS‑Somalia ability to conduct coordinated operations it raises the risk of sporadic violence from fragmented cells seeking attention.

For the Horn of Africa, this decline carries both opportunity and caution. On one hand, the weakening of ISIS‑Somalia creates openings for counterterrorism forces to dismantle remaining cells. On the other, the vacuum may invite competition from rival militant factions. Communities appear increasingly resistant to extremist recruitment, a positive sign for long‑term stability.

TIKLS assesses that IS‑Somalia deterioration marks a turning point in the extremist landscape of Puntland and the wider Horn of Africa. Continued monitoring of foreign fighter movements and propaganda output will be essential to anticipate residual threats. The group’s decline offers a chance for decisive counterterrorism action, while reminding stakeholders to remain vigilant against isolated acts of violence.

#Somalia

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

𝗧𝗜𝗞𝗟𝗦 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 On May 2, Government of Somalia specifically the Office of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud issued an invitation for dialogue to the Somalia Future Forum which brings together leaders from the federal member states of Puntland and Jubbaland as well as the opposition bloc based in Mugadishu. The meeting was scheduled for May 10, but disagreements quickly arose over the agenda and the electoral framework proposed by the government. This deadlock prompted the involvement of the U.S and U.K. embassies which stepped in on May 13 to mediate between the two sides.

The talks opened in a tense atmosphere with each side presenting firm conditions and sensitive proposals. The Federal Government was represented by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Deputy Prime Minister Salah Jama while the Future Forum was led by Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni and former Somali President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed who also chairs the Forum. Central to the discussions were issues surrounding the constitution, the electoral process and the legitimacy of the presidency whose term had formally expired during the course of the meeting.

Federal government insisted on completing and implementing the new constitution without reverting to the provisional charter adopted in 2012. It also maintained that elections must proceed under the “one person, one vote” model being prepared by Somalia electoral commission rejecting any alternative arrangements. President Mohamud argued that the legal mandate of the federal government is five years extending until May 15, 2027.

The opposition, however, countered that the 2012 constitution remains the only legitimate framework agreed upon by all Somali stakeholders and that the new draft is unlawful and cannot be enforced unilaterally. They called for halting the current electoral process and establishing a technical committee to design a more inclusive model better than the one used in 2022. Furthermore, the Forum asserted that the government mandate is four years under the provisional constitution, rejecting any extension of term limits. They proposed forming a transitional administration to oversee security and elections until a consensus-based electoral framework and timeline are agreed upon. This proposal was firmly rejected by President Mohamud who declared it unacceptable.

The meeting ended without agreement and the mediators from the UK and US withdrew from the hall in Halane expressing disappointment at the political stalemate. In response, the European Union initiated direct consultations including phone calls with Puntland President Said Deni and President Mohamud urging both sides to continue dialogue in pursuit of a sustainable solution.

#Somalia

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

Our goal is to report on the Horn of Africa through research, critical analysis based on facts and concise intelligence.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

The elimination of Abu Bakr ibn Muhammad ibn Ali al‑Mainuki head of Maktab al‑Furqan within ISIS represents a strategic blow of particular significance to IS‑Somalia. This figure functioned as a critical nexus for the group media, financial and operational channels, meaning the Somali branch has now lost a vital line of support and coordination. Maktab al‑Furqan served as the ideological and propaganda hub of ISIS providing IS‑Somalia with messaging power and recruitment leverage. Removing its senior leadership weakens the group’s ability to project influence, disseminate narratives and attract new fighters both domestically and abroad.

On the financial and logistical front al‑Mainuki was one of the principal architects of ISIS resource networks. His role enabled IS‑Somalia to secure funding, weapons and operational planning for attacks inside the country. His death is likely to disrupt these flows curtailing the branch capacity to sustain complex operations. Furthermore IS‑Somalia had been positioned as a connective node between ISIS elements in the Middle East and West Africa. The loss of al‑Mainuki undermines this bridging function reducing the Somali branch’s ability to facilitate the movement of foreign fighters and financial transfers and thereby diminishing its global relevance.

In the near term IS‑Somalia is expected to face leadership disarray and potential internal fragmentation. While ISIS has historically demonstrated resilience by rapidly appointing replacements such transitions often generate instability and weaken operational tempo. This creates an exploitable window for Somali security forces and international partners to intensify pressure leveraging the group leadership vacuum and degraded external linkages.

In sum, the death of al‑Mainuki constitutes a severe setback for IS‑Somalia. It erodes the branch’s internal cohesion external connectivity and propaganda reach while simultaneously offering Somali and allied forces a strategic opportunity to consolidate gains against the group and further diminish its operational footprint.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

Between April 20 and 24, a series of Air strikes were carried out in Bari region specifically near the settlement of Af Urur. These operations were conducted in collaboration with US AFRICOM.

The strikes occurred at night according to intelligence sources targeting members of Al-Shabaab who had descended from the Al-Madow mountains particularly from their command base at Gaado located at the high ridge. The group had been collecting supplies in the area and the bombardment struck specific sites where they had concealed food and large quantities of ammunition obtained from their open supply channels.

The airstrikes were intense their echoes heard across the surrounding terrain. The group suffered significant losses including the death of a key figure known as Da'uud who was responsible for intelligence operations Da'uud originally from the Somali region of Ethiopia was an active operative who had orchestrated notable missions inside Puntland between 2019 and 2021.

Al-Shabaab faction operating in the Al-Madow mountains has not conducted any major operations since 2022. This inactivity is attributed to fierce battles with IS-Somalia which controls the Al-Miskaad range. In those clashes, Al-Shabaab concentrated its forces but suffered heavy setbacks losing around 130 fighters in both manpower and leadership.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

𝗧𝗜𝗞𝗟𝗦 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 In recent times US-AFRICOM working in coordination with Puntland forces has carried out aerial operations in the eastern mountains of the Golis range in Puntland. This campaign was distinct from earlier ones in the area, as it targeted highly sensitive zones. The strikes focused on caves where critical units of the Islamic State Somali branch were hiding.

During the April operation number of key figures were eliminated. Among them was a senior member responsible for medical care another in charge of food supplies and units dedicated to manufacturing explosives. Intelligence confirmed that those killed were central to the group’s survival and operational capacity.

The battles of the past year had shown that the group managed to preserve some of its vital members who oversaw strategic tasks. However with the recent aerial campaign their ability to maintain those functions has been severely reduced especially as ground operations have become less frequent.

Looking at the broader picture, the Islamic State in Somalia has failed to hold territory essential for its growth.
Instead it has tried to maintain a foothold by using the mountains as a refuge bringing in foreign fighters to sustain its presence.
Intelligence and research sources have revealed that the Somali branch served as a hub linking ISIS factions in the Middle East and West Africa. This base was crucial for transferring fighters and financial resources which accelerated the expansion of the group.

The destruction of such a hub in the Golis mountains marks a significant setback for the Islamic State ambitions in Somalia undermining both its logistical networks and its symbolic claim to regional influence.

#Somalia

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

According to a Maritime Intelligence Report alert published here via @TIKLS_ on 19 May 2026 Somali pirates indicated plans to target vessels during Year 2026

On 21 April 2026, a related incident was reported. A possible armed boarding of an oil products tanker occurred approximately 24.0 nautical miles southeast of #Hafun Somalia, at around 12:00 UTC.

The timing and nature of this incident are consistent with the earlier warning and may indicate the execution of planned pirate activity in the region.

This development highlights the continued maritime security threat in the Horn of Africa and the importance of timely intelligence sharing and vigilance by vessels transiting high-risk areas.

#Somalia

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

Intelligence reports indicate a rise in piracy activities in the waters of the Indian Ocean and coastal areas of northeastern Somalia as well as parts of the central Somali coastline.
According to these reports towns such as Garacad, Hobyo and Xarardheere have recently witnessed preparations by pirate groups who are organizing to hijack and capture commercial vessels passing through Somali waters and the Indian Ocean.
It is further reported that these groups are being supported and pushed into maritime operations by terrorist networks with links to #Yemen and inside #Somalia.

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

Pirate groups have stepped up activity in recent months. Reports show attempted but failed attacks off southeastern Mogadishu last month #EUNAVFOR issued credible warnings and prepared to defend commercial ships in Somali and international waters.
Somalia government however, has yet to present a clear plan to counter piracy along its coast.

#Somalia

[TīKLS @TIKLS_]

Recent intelligence indicates that the senior leadership of ISIS is currently based in Somalia, marking a strategic shift away from the group traditional centers in the Middle East. Somalia has become a critical hub for both leadership and financial coordination. Despite heavy clashes last year between IS-Somalia and Puntland regional forces the group continues to pose a significant threat.

ISIS affiliates across Africa generate more than $100 million annually making the continent the organization largest source of funding worldwide. Somalia has assumed a central role in managing these financial flows.
However, this influence has been weakened following the US capture of ISIS-Somalia chief financial officer in eastern Somalia during a five-hour operation preceded by seven months of surveillance.

The funds collected are directed toward sustaining ISIS operations both locally and internationally. They finance combat missions, training and equipping fighters and expanding alliances with other jihadist networks objectives that remain at the core of ISIS strategy.

Africa financial contributions have effectively become the backbone of ISIS, while Somalia now serves as the strategic nerve center linking leadership and resources. This dual role underscores the continent growing importance to the organization and highlights the severe security risks posed to both regional and global stability.