Tobias Laimer @[email protected]

PhD candidate @KITKarlsruhe IMK-IFU (LEMG);
Football Analytics Enthusiast;
previously: Particle Physics @LMU_Muenchen, Environmental Studies @CarsonCenter

[Chris Gloninger, CCM, CBM @ChrisGloninger]

This is exactly what "trust the science" looks like. Scientists updated the worst-case scenario because real-world emissions are tracking below RCP8.5's 2010-era assumptions of runaway coal expansion, primarily because wind and solar got cheap and climate policy started bending the curve. The new CMIP7 HIGH scenario published in Geoscientific Model Development still projects roughly 3°C of warming by 2100, twice the Paris target and a temperature Earth has not seen in roughly 3 million years.

The position being celebrated here amounts to: the climate policies worked well enough to retire the worst-case scenario, therefore we should kill the climate policies. That is hearing the smoke alarm shut off and concluding the fire department was a hoax.

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

Dass die CO2-Emissionen nicht mehr so stark ansteigen wie 2011 im 'worst-case' Szenario (RCP8.5) angenommen, ist mindestens teilweise Erfolg der Klimapolitik. Es ist ein wichtiger Schritt in die richtige Richtung, aber keineswegs Grund zur Entwarnung.
https://t.co/jBTwUqH0vv

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

Two things can be true:

• RCP8.5 was never a realistic "business as usual" scenario
• The world has made real progress bending the emissions curve downward

@Peters_Glen, Piers Forster, and I explain in a new article (link below).

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[@ChrisStoecker @ChrisStoecker]

Ich kann allen, die es plötzlich völlig ok finden, eine 3-Grad-Zuviel-Welt anzusteuern (wie @schroeder_k ), noch mal ein bisschen hierin zu lesen. Insbesondere ab Seite 14. Wer das in Ordnung findet, muss seine Kinder wirklich hassen. https://t.co/ZDLqaWq6B1

[Prof. Ryan Katz-Rosene @ryankatzrosene]

The IEA’s “Sheltering from Oil Shocks” pamphlet reads like a Degrowth manual

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

Who stands to loose from a green transition? The biggest beneficiaries of fossil fuel profits, the richest of the rich. 50% of profits go to top 1% of wealth owners.

My co-author @GregorSemieniuk will present our paper and more at the @LSEEI on March 3, 6.30 PM. Go if you can!

[Peter Dynes @PGDynes]

Incredible heat sitting over Western Europe this week for this time of year.

Forecasts show temperatures running up to 10°C above seasonal averages across parts of France, Germany, Spain and the UK.

This isn’t just “mild weather” — it’s another clear climate signal.

[Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde]

Human civilization arose under a stable atmosphere of 260-280 ppmv of carbon dioxide.

Then, humans learned to utilize the power of fossil fuels.

In a geologic blink, fossil fuel burning has increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by more than 50%.

[Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde]

So how is the fight against global warming going?

Well, compared to predictions made 30 years ago, we have slightly slowed the rate at which carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere.

Technically that's progress, I guess, but we need it to stop increasing entirely.

[Randy Olson @randal_olson]

Ask ChatGPT a complex question and you'll get a confident, well-reasoned answer. Then type, "Are you sure?" Watch it completely reverse its position.

Ask again. It flips back. By the third round, it usually acknowledges you're testing it, which is somehow worse. It knows what's happening and still can't hold its ground.

This isn't a quirky bug. A 2025 study found GPT, Claude, and Gemini flip their answers ~60% of the time when users push back. Not even with evidence, just doubt.

We trained AI this way. RLHF rewards agreement over accuracy. Human evaluators consistently rate agreeable answers higher than correct ones. So the models learned a simple lesson: telling you what you want to hear gets rewarded. And now 1/3 of companies are using these systems for complex tasks like risk forecasting and scenario planning.

We built the world's most expensive yes-men and deployed them where we need pushback the most.

I wrote up why this happens and what actually fixes it: https://t.co/CDKq8xdgbW

[Rutger Bregman @rcbregman]

Major new study finds that 4-day workweek (with no reduction in pay) leads to:
--> higher productivity
--> more revenue
--> Less stress, fewer feelings of burnout, and improved overall health and well-being.

[Dr. Robert Rohde @RARohde]

In most of the world day-to-day weather variations are still much larger than long-term global warming.

As a result, both daily record highs and daily record lows remain common.

However as the world warms, new daily record highs consistently far outnumber new daily record lows.

[CIJ_ICJ @CIJ_ICJ]

READ HERE: The summary of the #ICJ Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change.

https://t.co/7TWc7ifwfX

[Adil Haque @AdHaque110]

The ICJ's Advisory Opinion on Climate Change is unanimous on all points.

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

1. Extreme rainfall increases as global temperatures rise.
There’s a basic law of physics behind that (Clausius Claperon Law, known since 1834, see Wikipedia).
And numerous analyses of weather station data prove it. See e.g. ours.
https://t.co/B4Ac8DARJp

[Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 @rahmstorf]

Short thread with 2 basic facts you should know about this kind of flash flood. ⬇️

[Rutger Bregman @rcbregman]

Literally EVERYONE wants the ultra-rich to pay more in taxes — left, right, blue-collar, white-collar, high earners, low earners.

It's the rare issue that actually unites people. And yet it doesn't happen - funny how that works, isn’t it?

[Jason Hickel @jasonhickel]

I'm excited to announce this new paper we have in The Lancet Planetary Health.

We show that the world is not moving towards a just and ecological future for all. Growth in energy and material use is occurring primarily in countries that do not need it and is not occurring fast enough (or is declining) in countries that do need it.

The capitalist world economy is not delivering for human needs and ecology. A substantial redistribution of energy and material use is required—both within countries and between them.

[Giulio Mattioli @giulio_mattioli]

One fascinating thing about German media is how it tends to move in a coordinated way.

So here's another column, in the high-brow centrist Zeit magazine, calling into question adherence with international law.

With picture to match! 🙈

[Giulio Mattioli @giulio_mattioli]

Since Israel attacked Iran, German media outlets & journalists of all political persuasions have started questioning international law and or heralding a new age where the law of the strongest applies in international relationships.

A thread to which I will keep adding / 1