Tom Liptay

Director of Forecasting @FUTURESEARCHAI. Previously @Metaculus. GJP Superforecaster.

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

We built a general-purpose AI forecaster. It uses deep web research and proven forecasting best practices to produce transparent, well-sourced probability estimates.
We hope it is valuable to investors, policy makers, and prediction market traders alike.

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

@dwarkesh_sp Assigning accurate probabilities to world events is interesting because it is verifiable in the long-term, but not immediately verifiable.

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Forecasts:
https://t.co/7oNSRIJqDD

Trades/portfolio:
https://t.co/4YAFn9ZGRd

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Updates for our play-money Kalshi trader:

Feb 26: $100,000
May 27: $129, 237.59

Here is what happened this week...

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Just like polymarket, 19 of our 20 biggest positions are NO.

Unlike polymarket we have 14.5% cash that we didn't deploy, since returns weren't attractive enough.

Our positions are less Iran related than polymarket.

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Forecasts:
https://t.co/RuCDuYmbmD

Trades/portfolio:
https://t.co/DmMZ4iHY8D

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

An update for our play-money polymarket trader:

April 24: $100,000
May 27: $92,987.74

Here is a summary of the action this week...

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

19 of our top 20 positions are NO positions.

Our forecaster thinks the market is over-pricing the situation in Iran changing in the near term.

We'll have a bunch of May 31 resolutions next round.

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

And, our ending portfolio summary.

Forecasts:
https://t.co/6hiK7608LN

Trades & porfolio:
https://t.co/xsTRSrvaft

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

An update for our Kalshi play-money forecaster/trader:

Feb 26: $100,000.00
May 18: $127,762.42

How we got here....

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Top 20 positions

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Trades & Portfolio:
https://t.co/pWmv9aPsLy

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Our polymarket trader is off to a bumpy start:

April 24: $100,000.00
Today: $94,593.30

Basically all resolutions have gone against us. Here are the details...

[Tom Liptay @TLiptay]

Our unrealized gains are $12,000+ spread across a bunch of markets.