Tommy

📈 🎾 🌍 | Edge over Hype

[Tommy @TPValue]

It worked well for me at the previous Slams, so it’ll depend on how the tournament and prices evolve.

Let’s see if the favourites deliver this time. 👀

[Tommy @TPValue]

My outright bets to win:

🇵🇱 Swiatek @ 8.75 → now 6.3
🇺🇸 Gauff @ ~7 → now 6.4
🇯🇵 Osaka @ 15 → now 13

Current prices are from @Polymarket, these days the most liquid market for WTA Grand Slam outright winner.
🧵👇

[Tommy @TPValue]

I did pretty well at RG & Wimbledon — selling Kostyuk before the SF at RG, and doing the same with Kostyuk and Noskova before the SF at Wimbledon.

I don’t rule out trading out/taking some profit again this time.

[José Morgado @josemorgado]

Alcaraz broken.

Super rusty performance, even more than vs. Routliffe Glaspool.

Cobolli will serve for the match.

[Tommy @TPValue]

1/6 2/3 in training match vs Fils today, 1/6 vs Merida yesterday... still, I wouldn't put too much weight into it, but supports my thesis that Alcaraz might be not fit enough to win the title.. which makes even current odds for players I bet on to win US Open quite valuable

[Punto de Break @PuntoDBreak]

🇪🇸🇫🇷Alcaraz cae de forma contundente ante Fils en su segundo partido de entrenamiento en el US Open

���Tras el set ajustado ante Mérida en el día de ayer, hoy el murciano sufrió más ante uno de los favoritos a ganar en Nueva York

https://t.co/lLUAaqDYJu

[Tommy @TPValue]

@budybet hewitt making a round in Winston Salem as well yesterday ;)

[Tommy @TPValue]

@tennismasterr yep it cought my eye as well

[Tommy @TPValue]

Will add my women’s US Open book tomorrow.

[Tommy @TPValue]

My book for the men’s US Open so far 👇

Got Fils 50, Shelton 25 and Jodar 45, with Zverev 8 and Djokovic 9.

The first four were taken before the Sinner withdrawal, with the view that at least one of Sinner/Alcaraz wouldn’t make it to the tournament.

[Nishi @nishikoripicks]

These are the current @Pinnacle odds to win the US Open.

Where’s the value?

For me: Djokovic @ 9.17, Shelton @ 10.74 and Fils @ 20.01.

[Tommy @TPValue]

Current Polymarket/Betfair prices:

Zverev 4.7
Fils 15
Jodar 15
Shelton 12
Djokovic 9

I may trade out of some positions if I stop feeling comfortable holding them, especially since most of these prices have already shortened quite a bit.
Will post my women’s US Open book later.

[Tommy @TPValue]

@rektcapital Is there any specific reason behind how you drew the trendline in your post?

[Tommy @TPValue]

@nishikoripicks @Pinnacle Going with form, Fils/Shelton/Jodar are my biggest profit outcomes if everything clicks for one of them.

Djokovic/Zverev would still give me some profit, backing experience.

Alcaraz, I tend to think, won’t be fit enough to win, and I don’t see any value in his odds.

[Tommy @TPValue]

@nishikoripicks @Pinnacle Since the Montreal final, got these prices across books:

Shelton 25
Fils 50
Jodar 45
Zverev 8
Djokovic 9 (late on Polymarket)
Shelton, Fils, Jodar & Zverev were all placed before the Sinner withdrawal, betting on at least one of Sinner/Alcaraz not playing the US Open.

[Tommy @TPValue]

@krugman87 also against 200 SMA & EMA on weekly, just slightly higher

[Tommy @TPValue]

@skala_vit vyhlad luxus

[Tommy @TPValue]

@AnthonyDabbundo more like somebody knows than thinks...

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