The Signal Watcher

Sharing real-time news & insights on crypto,markets & macro trends | NFA just personal analysis for those who find it valuable | Support Team Lead @Swiss_Circle

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

For me, the time has come now. I’ll be stepping back for a long period, and you shouldn’t expect much activity from me in the foreseeable future... I hope a few of my posts were useful to someone from time to time. Wishing you all the best 🙌

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Key events this week:

📅 Monday
ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)
Fed Chair Powell Speech - Due to the blackout period, no Fed member is allowed to speak about economic matters, including Powell.

📅 Tuesday
JOLTS Job Openings (September)

📅 Wednesday
ADP Nonfarm Employment / Payrolls (November)
S&P Global Services PMI (November)
ISM Services PMI (November)
Salesforce (CRM) Earnings

📅 Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims

📅 Friday
Core PCE Inflation Data (September)
UMich Consumer Sentiment

[John @market_sleuth]

This is RARE! I mean ULTRA RARE. Mr VIX falling 40% in 4 sessions peak to trough (chart from @TradesByC ). Twenty five years of VIX data says over a 90% chance of a decent drawdown Friday or Monday on the S&P. Don’t shoot the messenger! 🤣

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

I can only repeat myself. The data-driven Fed is finally getting actual numbers. True, these are pre-shutdown figures, but until now there was nothing to rely on, and the December rate meeting is looming. All eyes on PPI: if it comes in significantly worse than 2.7%, it will trigger a strong negative market reaction.
Also, keep an eye on Wednesday’s Beige Book, though I doubt it will show the economy suddenly taking off.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Key events:

📅 Monday
-
📅 Tuesday
September PPI Inflation❗️
September Retail Sales
November CB Consumer Confidence
October Pending Home Sales

📅 Wednesday
US Q3 2025 GDP❗️
September Durable Goods Orders
September PCE Inflation❗️
September New Home Sales

📅 Thursday
US Markets Closed – Happy Thanksgiving!❗️

📅 Friday
US Markets Close at 1 PM ET❗️

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Key events:

📅 Monday
-
📅 Tuesday
September PPI Inflation❗️
September Retail Sales
November CB Consumer Confidence
October Pending Home Sales

📅 Wednesday
US Q3 2025 GDP❗️
September Durable Goods Orders
September PCE Inflation❗️
September New Home Sales

📅 Thursday
US Markets Closed – Happy Thanksgiving!❗️

📅 Friday
US Markets Close at 1 PM ET❗️

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Sorry, just short till the closure of that CME gap 😆

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

So today we have everything that can move markets: Nvidia earnings, a BTC drop (I can’t really comment on the rest of crypto anymore as I’ve abandoned the other coins, as I mentioned before), and an important announcement from the US Labor Department, which I already wrote about in an earlier post. As a result, the market’s expectations for a December rate cut have tightened further, and the situation in Japan is getting increasingly ugly as far as the Yen is concerned. On top of all this, bond yields have surged to record highs, and to me, a December rate hike there seems almost guaranteed. The end of the year is looking packed.

Back to BTC: the market is not going to peak in an extreme fear zone. I went long at 92K, and I have additional limit orders rounded numbers for simplicity: 83,900 and 77K. I also have a defensive short from 100,500. If 77K gets smashed badly, then I’ll target that very low CME gap… the one that’s so low I almost don’t want to write the number. Alright, fine: 53,935. That would be epic, but let’s not get that far ahead of ourselves.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

So today we have everything that can move markets: Nvidia earnings, a BTC drop (I can’t really comment on the rest of crypto anymore as I’ve abandoned the other coins, as I mentioned before), and an important announcement from the US Labor Department, which I already wrote about in an earlier post. As a result, the market’s expectations for a December rate cut have tightened further, and the situation in Japan is getting increasingly ugly as far as the Yen is concerned. On top of all this, bond yields have surged to record highs, and to me, a December rate hike there seems almost guaranteed. The end of the year is looking packed.

Back to BTC: the market is not going to peak in an extreme fear zone. I went long at 92K, and I have additional limit orders rounded numbers for simplicity: 83,900 and 77K. I also have a defensive short from 100,500. If 77K gets smashed badly, then I’ll target that very low CME gap… the one that’s so low I almost don’t want to write the number. Alright, fine: 53,935. That would be epic, but let’s not get that far ahead of ourselves.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Most of them are garbage anyway

[Bobby A @Bobby_1111888]

“Alts could correct 90% from here, bro.”

To where, dude? Death?

🤣🤣🤣

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Both of them are fully closed 🥳

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Regarding the CME chart: two gaps not too far below us have been open for a long time, one closes at 97,260 and the other at 91,805. Besides those, there’s an even older one much lower, with a close at 53,935. That one isn’t relevant for now, but having three is already a lot. And we know how these CME gaps tend to behave, they rarely stay unfilled.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Nvidia earnings are coming up, likely weighed down by problematic Chinese revenue. We also have Target, Home Depot, and Walmart earnings, which are especially important now because of the shutdown, practically functioning as economic data. On top of that, FOMC minutes. The market is nervous, classic de-risking. We’ve seen hundreds of these setups before.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Crypto dumping on a Sunday.
Never a great sign for stocks. $ETH 🩸

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

The man, the legend. 😂

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Eric Trump says Q4 will be "unbelievable" for your crypto bags.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

It might not be clear to everyone: this job report is for September, but due to the shutdown, it’s being released now. Since it’s old, I’m not expecting much from it.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Finally, the boredom is over, the door’s really going to be kicked in this week. Let’s look at the most important events with the market in mind.

As always, the main focus is on Nvidia earnings. The expectations are very high. They can basically deliver the numbers, but that’s not the whole story, it’s the same situation as last time. Even if the results are good, if Chinese revenue comes in below expectations, it will matter. And thanks to Trump, that’s very much on the table. Of course, these big pullbacks are short-term, but the question is whether they will move the market significantly. Probably yes.

Next, the Fed FOMC Minutes. I trust no one needs an explanation for why this is important.

Walmart and Home Depot earnings. Recently, because of the shutdown, economic data didn’t arrive, so these two retail earnings are basically a snapshot of that period. Very important numbers.

And finally, all the other economic data. It’s shaping up to be a pretty eventful start to the week.
<@&1336791200228704266>

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Finally, the boredom is over, the door’s really going to be kicked in this week. Let’s look at the most important events with the market in mind.

As always, the main focus is on Nvidia earnings. The expectations are very high. They can basically deliver the numbers, but that’s not the whole story, it’s the same situation as last time. Even if the results are good, if Chinese revenue comes in below expectations, it will matter. And thanks to Trump, that’s very much on the table. Of course, these big pullbacks are short-term, but the question is whether they will move the market significantly. Probably yes.

Next, the Fed FOMC Minutes. I trust no one needs an explanation for why this is important.

Walmart and Home Depot earnings. Recently, because of the shutdown, economic data didn’t arrive, so these two retail earnings are basically a snapshot of that period. Very important numbers.

And finally, all the other economic data. It’s shaping up to be a pretty eventful start to the week.
<@&1336791200228704266>

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Key events for the week

📅 Monday
FOMC Member Waller Speech
NY Fed Manufacturing Index

📅 Tuesday
Home Depot $HD Earnings❗️

📅 Wednesday
Fed FOMC Minutes‼️
Nvidia $NVDA Earnings‼️

📅 Thursday
Walmart $WMT Earnings❗️
US. Jobs Report / Nonfarm Pr.‼️
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index❗️
Existing Home Sales

📅 Friday
Services PMI❗️
Manufacturing PMI❗️
Consumer Sentiment
Inflation Expectations❗️

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Key events for the week

📅 Monday
FOMC Member Waller Speech
NY Fed Manufacturing Index

📅 Tuesday
Home Depot $HD Earnings❗️

📅 Wednesday
Fed FOMC Minutes‼️
Nvidia $NVDA Earnings‼️

📅 Thursday
Walmart $WMT Earnings❗️
US. Jobs Report / Nonfarm Pr.‼️
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index❗️
Existing Home Sales

📅 Friday
Services PMI❗️
Manufacturing PMI❗️
Consumer Sentiment
Inflation Expectations❗️

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Bill signed the market down. Experience is worth more than anything.

[John @market_sleuth]

Advice for new traders regarding the shutdown vote tomorrow. I’ve traded through 6 shutdowns: (month noted is when they ended) Nov 95’ (5 days), Jan 96’ (21 days), Oct 2013 (16 days), Jan 2018 (3 days), Jan 2019 (35 days) & the current one (42 days & counting). I would avoid index shorts / puts until after the shutdown bill is signed by Trump. IV usually falls after the bill is signed which kills option premiums. The initial rally is often faded the next day but resumes shortly after. Every case is different but I’d advise to keep swing & day trade position sizes small until the dust settles. 🎯

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

CME GAP at 97260 is fully closed.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Regarding the CME chart: two gaps not too far below us have been open for a long time, one closes at 97,260 and the other at 91,805. Besides those, there’s an even older one much lower, with a close at 53,935. That one isn’t relevant for now, but having three is already a lot. And we know how these CME gaps tend to behave, they rarely stay unfilled.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Regarding the CME chart: two gaps not too far below us have been open for a long time, one closes at 97,260 and the other at 91,805. Besides those, there’s an even older one much lower, with a close at 53,935. That one isn’t relevant for now, but having three is already a lot. And we know how these CME gaps tend to behave, they rarely stay unfilled.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

So the US shutdown ends today, economic data releases will resume, and I can be more active again. As I said before, I was a bit overloaded with everything, so this pause actually came at a good time for me.
So it was about time to end the shutdown, it’s troubling when a data-dependent Fed isn’t getting any data. What we know for now is that the October CPI and jobs data will never be released. I guess that’s one way to beat inflation, just stop publishing the numbers. Jokes aside, the Fed isn’t making any real progress toward its target. That’s something worth pausing and reflecting on…
The Fed itself is becoming increasingly divided, and I still don’t see a cut happening in December.
Outside the Fed, the other major player is the BOJ. We know a rate hike is in the air, yet the market still isn’t pricing it in. There’s still time for communication before December, but by the end of the year, the market is going to get interesting. Not that this year has been boring anyway.

As for the markets: stocks and crypto have completely diverged, which is far from normal. I spent a bit more time on X today. There’s so much noise, there’s a chart or a historical data point for absolutely everything. Bullish, bearish… You can justify anything if you really want to.

I’ve mostly stepped away from alts. Sometimes I take a quick scalp here and there, but outside of BTC it’s just not worth focusing on anything else. And if the big question is: is the top in? According to Dr. Profit, yes. Well, it’s possible, but then I have to ask, who exactly was the exit liquidity? Sure, there was an ugly move in alts, but in BTC and stocks there was nothing, and those are the ones that actually matter, not the alts. The alt market is almost invisible compared to them.

So the market topped in a fear zone? Interesting, that would be something new. And this isn’t just about crypto. We’ll see, in any case, I’m really looking forward to the upcoming Fed and BOJ meetings and the press conferences.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

@realsandmanres 🤝

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

So the US shutdown ends today, economic data releases will resume, and I can be more active again. As I said before, I was a bit overloaded with everything, so this pause actually came at a good time for me.
So it was about time to end the shutdown, it’s troubling when a data-dependent Fed isn’t getting any data. What we know for now is that the October CPI and jobs data will never be released. I guess that’s one way to beat inflation, just stop publishing the numbers. Jokes aside, the Fed isn’t making any real progress toward its target. That’s something worth pausing and reflecting on…
The Fed itself is becoming increasingly divided, and I still don’t see a cut happening in December.
Outside the Fed, the other major player is the BOJ. We know a rate hike is in the air, yet the market still isn’t pricing it in. There’s still time for communication before December, but by the end of the year, the market is going to get interesting. Not that this year has been boring anyway.

As for the markets: stocks and crypto have completely diverged, which is far from normal. I spent a bit more time on X today. There’s so much noise, there’s a chart or a historical data point for absolutely everything. Bullish, bearish… You can justify anything if you really want to.

I’ve mostly stepped away from alts. Sometimes I take a quick scalp here and there, but outside of BTC it’s just not worth focusing on anything else. And if the big question is: is the top in? According to Dr. Profit, yes. Well, it’s possible, but then I have to ask, who exactly was the exit liquidity? Sure, there was an ugly move in alts, but in BTC and stocks there was nothing, and those are the ones that actually matter, not the alts. The alt market is almost invisible compared to them.

So the market topped in a fear zone? Interesting, that would be something new. And this isn’t just about crypto. We’ll see, in any case, I’m really looking forward to the upcoming Fed and BOJ meetings and the press conferences.

[The Signal Watcher @TSWoriginal]

Hmmm

[John @market_sleuth]

They also downgraded to neutral the Internet sector in early 2000 just before the top. 👀