The Margin of Safety

Value investor | Buying good companies when the market gets dramatic. Find the value. Ignore the noise. Not financial advice. 🐂🐻🎯📈🚀💎💰

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Cursor is just the latest round of Musk vs Altman.

OpenAI: we can’t trust SpaceX after “Elon Musk’s companies violating contracts.”

Musk: “I couldn’t care less. Scam Altman and Greg Stockman are utterly untrustworthy assholes who stole an open source nonprofit.”

Altman, last month: “elon is obsessed with me again.” Also: “homeboy you’re the one selling public market investors on short-term space datacenters.”

The coding tool is collateral.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

OpenAI is cutting Cursor off on Nov 12 after SpaceX bought the company. Cursor says talks are still open. Anthropic is already lining up more Claude capacity. Model access is now just another change-of-control clause.

If OpenAI really cuts Cursor off, Anthropic is the obvious winner on coding usage. Cursor itself isn’t going anywhere. The risk is the swap: quality, cost, and how the product actually feels.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Warsh didn’t lock in a September hike or a hold.

Inflation now has to cool convincingly or they tighten. That’s a problem for long-duration stocks, speculative growth, and crypto.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Warsh at Jackson Hole: hawkish on inflation, silent on the next rate move.

He said 2% is a hard target, prices are the Fed’s main job, and conditions don’t look tight. No hike promised. No hold promised. If inflation isn’t clearly heading to 2%, “we have work to do.”

Three Fed officials already wanted a hike in July. Hammack said this week it’s “time to act.”

Stocks: cautious, not panicked. A hike is still on the table. Don’t trade like cuts are coming.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole at 10 ET.

July PCE held at 3.7% YoY (hotter than the 3.6% consensus), core PCE stuck at 3.3%. Both rose 0.2% MoM. Inflation has now been above the 2% target for 65 straight months.

Markets are pricing only ~30–35% odds of a September hike after the July hold (9-3 vote, three dissents for a hike). Sticky services and lingering energy effects keep higher-for-longer in play, but one print like this still isn’t enough for an actual move.

Watch how Warsh frames the data without giving forward guidance.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

$PYPL sliding hard premarket after Bloomberg reports Stripe + Advent International dropped their $53B+ takeover pursuit.

They offered $60.50/share in July. PayPal’s board said it was too low and had regulatory/financing issues. Block was in early talks but already out.

Stock closed ~$61.47 Thu; now indicated down ~13-15%. Deal premium evaporating — back to judging the turnaround on its own.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Bought $IREN into earnings. Not my smartest move.

Print came in messy — revenue miss, mining still fading, big impairment loss, EBITDA stepped down. Stock getting hit after hours. Fair reaction. Transition quarters look ugly on paper.

That said I still think they can pull this off. AI cloud actually doubled QoQ, $4B contracted ARR for 2026, capacity basically sold out, Microsoft Horizon 1 delivered, more phases coming, financing covering most of the GPU spend. The mining hangover is real but it’s the cost of converting the sites.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

$IREN reports after the close today. Added more this morning. Also added more $VST . AI power + AI compute is the pair I’m leaning into.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Jobless claims just came in at 203K vs 208K expected. Continuing claims also dropped to 1.778M.

Labor market still looks solid — not a lot of people getting laid off.

That’s good for the economy, but it doesn’t help the rate-cut crowd. Low layoffs give the Fed room to stay focused on inflation that’s still running hot.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

AI’s not just knocking anymore — it’s kicking the door in. And yeah, you can thank $NVDA +7% for turning the whole thing from a lab demo into an actual industrial complex.

$MU +4.2%, $MRVL +5.2%, $NBIS +7.2%, $CRWV +5.8% in premarket. The silicon and compute names are waking up like they just remembered they’re the ones feeding the models Jensen keeps selling.

Meanwhile $CRM ripped +11.8% and $CRWD +8.8% after software and security actually delivered.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Big news for AI in general!

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: OpenAI says it will achieve AGI this year

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

Investors during $NVDA's earnings call.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Update nvidia turned green after hours!

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

$NVDA beat again.

Revenue $96.2B vs ~$92B expected. EPS $2.22 vs ~$2.10. Data center $89B. Next quarter guided to $108B vs ~$104B.

And as usual the stock is still soft. Sold off into the print, barely moving after hours, a little negative right now. That’s been the script the last few quarters — great numbers, stock still fades first.

Give it a couple of days. If this is just sell-the-news again, that’s when it usually starts working.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

🚀 Salesforce $CRM just dropped a record Q2 FY27!

One of their best quarters ever:
📈 Revenue: $11.3B (+11% Y/Y)
📊 Subscription & Support: $10.8B (+12%)
🔥 cRPO: $33.5B (+14% Y/Y)
💰 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.90 (+103% Y/Y)
💸 Free cash flow: $1.1B (+81%)
Agentforce + Data 360 ARR nearly $3.9B (up over 210% Y/Y). Agentforce alone crossed $1.5B ARR.
Raised full-year FY27 revenue guidance to $46.1–$46.4B.

Marc Benioff: “We just delivered one of our best quarters ever… AI is delivering value across every layer of our platform.”

AI momentum is real. 🔥

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Loading up on more $USAR , $LAC , $VST , $IBM today and initiating a position in $BE

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

July PCE came in a touch hot.

Headline: +0.2% MoM / 3.7% YoY (vs 0.1% / 3.6% expected)

Core: +0.2% / 3.3% — right on the nose.

Not an inflation shock by any stretch. But it’s enough to keep the Fed in “we’re not rushing anything” mode and put a ceiling on how much relief yields and growth stocks get from here.

[The Margin of Safety @TSafety49567]

Big earnings after the close:
$NVDA $CRM $CRWD $NTNX $OKTA $SNPS $HPQ

But let’s be real — only one of these actually moves the needle.

Nvidia’s print can reprice the entire AI complex: chips, neoclouds, data-center power, and the broader Nasdaq.

Everything else is noise.

All eyes on $NVDA.