The Weather Outlook

Latest weather news and views from Brian Gaze, The Weather Outlook's (TWO) founder. TWO provides short, medium and long range weather forecasts.

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

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[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

This is a good example of how the scenarios tool cuts through the data noise. The first chart shows 2m max temperature scenarios for days 11 to 16, with three options and a % assigned to each. On the other hand, the standard plot is much more difficult to read.

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Europe 14 day weather forecast: Major Pattern Shift Ahead https://t.co/jmMMryOP7J via @YouTube

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Dry and bright in much of the UK [Published 07:00 26/09/2026] #ukweather https://t.co/uiAFwADOYy

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Here's a useful tip: GEFS charts are fully available in the Ensemble Dashboard (no login needed for GEFS) before any of the static line graphs or postage stamps are generated in the GEFS viewer:

https://t.co/7cApmEflit

https://t.co/DJRLhEFbFB

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

GEFS 12Z is running late on TWO this evening due to an earlier problem on one of our servers which is now resolved. https://t.co/DJRLhEFbFB

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

The weather image uploader on TWO now has drag-and-drop functionality, so it’s never been easier to post your pics.

https://t.co/iteZ3Bcubt

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

My sister used to live in Walthamstow. I remember taking the train down from York to see her, with the snow in the fields frozen solid all the way down! Could have been Jan 1985 or Feb 1986. Happy days.

These days, there's excitement at the prospect of a centimetre or two of slush lasting until midday. 😄

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

@NickJF75 Exactly the same around here in Berkhamsted at the moment.

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

@alanhinkes @ScotRail @NetworkRailSCOT @CallumGreenINV @MetOLeeming Nice clouds, but I like the diesel HST. Very rare beasts on the West Coast Main line (passes through Berko where I live) these days!

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Forecasts derived from ECMWF IFS data on TWO now cover most of Europe (lat. 20° to 69.5°, lon. −10° to 41.5°), rather than just the UK.

You'll need Premium access, but once logged in, simply click the ECMWF button under the forecast panel.

https://t.co/T00yhxqCsa

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Decades of experience on TWO have taught me:

1️⃣ Don't second-guess the data.
2️⃣ Don't overcomplicate the analysis.
That's what the TWO winter forecast will be based on.

So, can I offer cold weather fans anything? Only at the more esoteric end of things:

🌿 Lots of holly berries.
🐿️ The squirrels seem more active this autumn than I can ever recall.

Take from that what you will! 😉

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Here's an example of how the new scenarios functionality works https://t.co/0Krn1IsbUP

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

@adam_wain @Gazby77 @Petagna @peacockreports I agree when looking over a longer period, but over the last few years? At first glance it appears that another fmechanism may be at work, in addition to that

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Rain fading away as it edges southwards [Published 06:30 25/09/2026] #ukweather https://t.co/cfsWRybtx6

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

The charts are generated using data from this evening's ECMWF AIFS ensemble. You can read more about the Ensemble Dashboard here https://t.co/lZha4oZONA

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Our ensemble dashboard has had a massive upgrade.

1. The grid now covers much of Europe, not just the UK.
2. New chart types: plume, lines, spread, spaghetti, scatter, cluster and scenario (set period).
3. Median and mean can now be plotted on the same chart.
4. GEFS, ECMWF IFS, AIFS and MOGREPS-G.

Free access is available, but much of the data and functionality requires Premium access.

Hopefully, this is one of the most powerful forecasting tools readily available in the UK. If you'd like to discuss commercial access, please contact us directly.

https://t.co/XREv1vuKLt

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

Fine weather in much of the UK [Published 06:30 24/09/2026] #ukweather https://t.co/pQc4BxQ6aw

[The Weather Outlook @TWOweather]

I like it on paper but less in practice. These days, it rarely means frosty and foggy weather, which I enjoy in the autumn. Also, there seems to be less mobility, which I also like. More often, it is mild or even warm, with cloud and patchy outbreaks of rain, at least here in the southeast.