@ardaarkun Let's see how long PLV index stays above 250 - The us met coal miners need several months above these price levels including hva gap close to reflect this into earnings. Market and algos are just trying to pre catch heavy index spikes all the time to be first for repricing.
@KashRazzaghi@ChelseaFC It's crazy how much Chelsea content you guys are posting these days. Let's hope you will be motivated as much going into your next earnings reports.
@Kacper_PK_CH 2026 cycle - bond yields up - fin twit starts crying posting horror stories about 2008 and Dotcom. Yields down - crying "you dont own enough assets" - posting how undervalued stocks are vs earnings. Fed is basically free to play rates because this market will jump on it.
@Kacper_PK_CH Let's see how fast they will get a decent amount out of the ground in the future ... The big us oil majors didn't seem to be that thrilled about spending big capex over there some month ago ?
@Kacper_PK_CH Market seems to be "reverse pricing" again after the speech. It's overshooting every time when narratives shift. My current focus is on the first quarter next year - what are they going to do when rates break 5% at this time?
@LukeyTrags Same thing happening over in the US Appalachia Coal and maybe one of the most overlooked aspects in these assets. Coal/Met Coal Miners seem to have some of the best potential rare earth / metals deposits. A lot of them might transition into hybrids in the near future.
@Kacper_PK_CH Honestly - I think this model is kind outdated - we might be already in a scenario where we have rolling recessions and like you pointed out the printing and debt load changed the game completely after 2020 ...
@EnergyCynic We might have a new price floor around 2-2,5 thanks to inflation and money printing ? One could rather argue that we are more prone to geo shock events nowadays. The frequency of these events might be a better structural driver then the demand narratives ...