T-Intelligence

Early warning & threatcasting. Bespoke intelligence analysis for decision-makers. Relaunched on 4 July 2023.

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

This is where #Russia wants to build a NAVAL HIDEOUT after #Ukraine expelled the Russian Navy from occupied Crimea and the northwestern Black Sea.

📍#Ochamchire Bay, Russian-occupied Abkhazia (Georgia)

📂 Read: https://t.co/XcdPjDX4Yg

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

The #Suwalki Gap is #NATO’s most vulnerable chokepoint. Its loss to #Russia would sever NATO’s land access to the Baltics, fracture Article 5 credibility, and reshape the Euro-Atlantic security order in Moscow’s favor.

https://t.co/DGIrVyiSWl

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

Nice work! We also took a look at #Ochamchire in June. Things are picking up.

https://t.co/mTw0RN2vMt

[Bellingcat @bellingcat]

Satellite imagery, analysed by Bellingcat, shows increasing development at a naval base in Abkhazia, a Russian-backed separatist region of Georgia, previously tipped to be a "permanent place of deployment" for parts of Russia's Black Sea fleet. https://t.co/vwA2b2fyZe

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

🚨MARCH ISSUE IS OUT🔓
The latest 🇲🇩Security SitRep is here!
We have assessed the following sectors in #Moldova's security:
-Foreign Affairs & EU Integration
-Defense Modernization
-Energy Security
-#Transnistria (and #Russia)
-& more

➡️https://t.co/zJF3Vpq5LY

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

Check out the January edition too in case you've missed it!

https://t.co/3454JMgVAq

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

🚨JANUARY ISSUE IS OUT 🔓

The latest 🇲🇩 Security SitRep is here!

We have assessed the following sectors in #Moldova's security:
-Foreign Affairs & EU Integration
-Defense Modernization
-Energy Security
-#Transnistria (and #Russia)
-& more

🔽
https://t.co/vCu34Ts0YN

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

🚨FEBRUARY ISSUE IS OUT 🔓
The latest 🇲🇩Security SitRep is here!
We have assessed the following sectors in #Moldova's security:
-Foreign Affairs & EU Integration
-Defense Modernization
-Energy Security
-#Transnistria (and #Russia)
-& others
🔽
https://t.co/17qX4pzVYL

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

Arctic Rush! 🧊🥶
#Shipping, #Energy, #Mining, and Geopolitical Competition...

Learn about:
-shorter shipping routes & transit regimes
-#Arctic energy and mineral reserves
-impact on icebreaker shipbuilding industry

Grab your FREE copy today!
➡https://t.co/bzIPGfa95q

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

On #Transnistria: We sketched out in 2022 Russia's lack of options to link up with the #ORGF. But RU will try everything it can to derail #Moldova's European integration, spread fear, and destabilize the country (there's also the #Gagauzia card)

https://t.co/KCHQBfb9bh

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

🚨JANUARY ISSUE IS OUT 🔓

The latest 🇲🇩 Security SitRep is here!

We have assessed the following sectors in #Moldova's security:
-Foreign Affairs & EU Integration
-Defense Modernization
-Energy Security
-#Transnistria (and #Russia)
-& more

🔽
https://t.co/vCu34Ts0YN

[James Clark Reynolds @JimReynoldsUK]

I spoke to academics, diplomats, analysts, charities and military experts about the state of the war in #Ukraine and the evolving demands for aid:

https://t.co/AogGKaOczB

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

On 21JAN24, NOVATEK’s Ust-Luga Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack.

In this report, we assessed the damage inflicted on the facility, repair time estimate, effects on port activity, consequences for business, & more. #energy #gas
https://t.co/bX7NF1U0ft

[Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch]

Opening up Black Sea exports was clearly Ukraine’s greatest strategic success since the liberation of Kherson in fall of 2022

It is now clear how this was achieved - via development of credible threats against Russian Black Sea shipping
🧵

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

@konrad_muzyka 👏👏👏

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

🚨DECEMBER ISSUE IS OUT 🔓

📰 Don't miss the DEC23 edition – must-read for what lies ahead!
🗓️2024 is a turning point for 🇲🇩 !

💼 Last free #Moldova/#Transnistria Security SitReps
Early joiners get a discount, especially on yearly plans. Reach out!

https://t.co/2L4YApk0tP

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

⏰Deadline for offers is 8JAN24

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

Romania issued a SHORAD/VHSORAD tender on 17 November 2023. The contract ($1.908 billion) is anticipated to attract bidders from the U.S., Europe, Israel, and South Korea. We assess likely competitors & overview requirements ➡️ https://t.co/wCUkcGkD7O

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

2024 is here– #Ukraine and #Russia are entering their third calendar year of full-scale war. To help reduce uncertainty for government and private sectors, T-Intelligence prepared a war outlook for 2024. #geopoliticalrisk ⤵️
https://t.co/VP2MK82TZm

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

In the notional victory scenario Moldova can also be colored red— it would be Russia’s first move after Ukraine. Then, it would “secure the Black Sea” with RO EEZ in sight (energy deposits). Final move + main risk is RU probing U.S. commitment to Baltics, CEE states and Finland.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: The US has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think.

As Americans consider the costs of continuing to help Ukraine fight the Russians in the coming years, they deserve a careful consideration of the costs of allowing Russia to win. 🧵(1/19)

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

🚨NOVEMBER ISSUE IS OUT🚨

Find out what happened in Moldova (and Transnistria) in November 2023 ➡️ https://t.co/XjVSn3IqN0

We examine the following sectors:
-Foreign Affairs & European Integration
-Defense
-Energy
-Economy & Investments
-Domestic Affairs
-Russia & Transnistria

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

#1 Executive Report 🔥 The Solomon Islands is in the early stages of state capture by China. With its growing geopolitical influence in the #Solomons, #China is expanding the #BRI into the South Pacific, an area of strategic importance for #AUKUS. ⤵️
https://t.co/IJuv7EFVTx

[T-Intelligence @T_intell]

Romania issued a SHORAD/VHSORAD tender on 17 November 2023. The contract ($1.908 billion) is anticipated to attract bidders from the U.S., Europe, Israel, and South Korea. We assess likely competitors & overview requirements ➡️ https://t.co/wCUkcGkD7O