I just finished filling the positions I wanted and fully deployed the budget I’d allocated to my “double down or die” strategy.
I opened new wallets for this play so I could track it in detail.
As of today, I’m slightly in the red.
Why keep adding?
Because I know how it looks.... structure’s broken, sentiment’s awful, everyone on CT’s calling it over.
That’s precisely when the best risk-reward emerges.
The worse it feels to press buy, the better the odds it’s right. (most times)
I’m prepared to lose exactly half of what I’ve put into this “double down or die” strategy.
That said, two things are on my mind:
A. If this strategy halves in value, it likely means we’re entering a true bear market. In that case, I’ll cut the losses and re-deploy the remaining half deep in the bear, where I’ve historically placed my best bids. That’s why I see this as an asymmetric play: either I end up roughly neutral if we drop, or these entries age exceptionally well if the bull continues.
Arrogant? Yes. Confident? Also yes.
B. This is the one that really keeps me thinking.
At some point, there will be a pump, that much is certain.
The question is whether that pump is a complacency bounce or the beginning of the blow-off top.
If it’s a complacency bounce and I’m in profit, the logical move is to close, take the win, and prepare to re-deploy deep in the bear.
But if it’s the start of the blow-off top, that same caution would leave me sidelined for the most explosive phase of the cycle.
I’ll keep thinking about how to structure a position that holds up in both scenarios.
Open to ideas.