2 month ago I spotted a simple inefficiency in the World Cup market. 29.7% just sitting there waiting to be taken
France, Spain, England, Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, Germany cover only 70.3% of total probability
I'm already up 10% on my position before the tournament has even started!
@saurav_tweets Spain is exactly not tier S. Change Germany and Spain places
More inaccuracies in the assessment, and therefore edges, search in my profile by the words «World Cup»
Everyone in CT is debating the MicroStrategy market resolution
Accumulated Yes
Accumulated No
Stayed out market
Doesn’t matter.
Look at this market from a different angle:
1 day until the final review
Hype is at peak
Everyone is talking
2 hours ago I bought YES at 0.6c
Already up 2x
The outcome is almost irrelevant
What matters is that attention keeps flowing, traders keep rotating, and liquidity keeps moving
@llamaonthebrink That is a controversial decision
This argument, of course, supports the Yes side
But those are the market's resolution rules
I just took a strict, literal reading of the rules
I knew the resolution of the «MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31» market ahead of time
Insider? No, just a legal background
basis: the rules didn't include extra time for evidence review like other markets do
In law, if you fail to submit evidence before the deadline, the court simply won't accept it
The timeframe for any condition to be satisfied had already expired
easy 2.8x on the map
btw, 18/24 top Polymarket traders were holding 'No'
Never trade against whales
I knew the resolution of the «MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31» market ahead of time
Insider? No, just a legal background
basis: the rules didn't include extra time for evidence review like other markets do
In law, if you fail to submit evidence before the deadline, the court simply won't accept it
The timeframe for any condition to be satisfied had already expired
easy 2.8x on the map
btw, 18/24 top Polymarket traders were holding 'No'
Never trade against whales
2 month ago I spotted a simple inefficiency in the World Cup market. 29.7% just sitting there waiting to be taken
France, Spain, England, Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, Germany cover only 70.3% of total probability
I'm already up 10% on my position before the tournament has even started!