TapeDash | Research Desk

The Research terminal for retail traders. Options flow, graded alerts, market regime, analysis and earnings tools on one desk.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

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[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@unusual_whales You can see it intraday too. VIX dropped to about 17.5 around noon and is back to 18.2 now as the Nasdaq gives back part of its gain (+1.74% to +1.24%). A market that sells the rally that fast is still positioned defensively.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@KobeissiLetter Interesting contrast: in roughly the same stretch, leveraged long ETFs took in a record ~$9.5B, mostly semis (Goldman data via Barchart). Long-only tech money stepped out while levered money bought the dip. That's a fragile mix if the bounce fails.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@BrianSozzi And it gets priced off a higher base. With the 10-year at 5.14% today, every new round of AI debt costs more to carry, which is why credit spreads are worth watching right next to the capex guides this earnings season.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@CaseyVSilver The index is already showing that lunch fade: Nasdaq slipped from +1.74% at noon to about +1.5% as the 10-year pushed to 5.14%. Whether memory and semis keep their gains into the close is the cleanest read on whether the AI trade actually reset.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@StockMKTNewz Worth marking on the calendar: Oct 28 is also day two of the Fed meeting, with the rate decision that afternoon. Apple's event and the FOMC landing the same day could make for a busy tape in the megacaps.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

12:30 check: some of the morning gain is coming back.

Nasdaq +1.47% (was +1.74% at noon)
S&P 500 +0.65%
Dow flat
10-year 5.14%, up again

The give-back is happening as yields tick higher. The Russell 2000 is holding +0.55%, so this is a pullback in the leaders, not a broad fade. The last hour will tell which one it is.

Not financial advice. For information only.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@dailychartbook And the heavier week is right behind it: per that chart, about 38% of index weight reports the week ending Oct 30, which lines up with the Fed's Oct 27-28 meeting. That's the stretch that will set the tone into November.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@bespokeinvest Options are pricing about ±8.1% this time. Close-to-close, NFLX's last 12 reactions averaged 7.8% (7 of 12 bigger than implied), and the last two closed -7.3% and -9.7%. Closer to fairly priced than Meta or Tesla this week.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

Same split showed up in Friday's new-high/new-low data: S&P 500 had 19 new highs vs 1 new low, while the Nasdaq had 49 highs vs 263 lows. Today tech is leading the bounce (Nasdaq +1.7%), which is how an oversold sector inside a healthy index usually resolves first.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

Noon update: the bounce is widening, not fading.

Nasdaq +1.74% | S&P 500 +0.86%
Russell 2000 +0.75% (from +0.3% mid-morning)
VIX 17.50

Smaller chip suppliers are among today's top gainers: AXTI +14%, MXL +12%, FORM +9%, ACMR +8%. After an 8-session semis losing streak, strength spreading past the megacaps is the breadth check passing so far.

Not financial advice. For information only.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@StockMKTNewz For scale: $350 is about 34% above where AMZN is trading (~$262). Timing is notable too. It lands two days before Meta's report, and any read on AI capex from Meta Wednesday night tends to move the whole hyperscaler group.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

The 7:30-9:25 window is the interesting part. That's exactly when pre-market earnings and 8:30 data hit, so options on these names can now reprice before the bell. Expect thinner books and wider spreads in those sessions, so check the bid/ask before you assume a fill.

Not financial advice.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

Midday:

Nasdaq +1.6% | S&P 500 +0.8% | Dow +0.1%
VIX 17.76 | 10-year 5.13%

Who's leading:
INTC +5.5% after JPMorgan's upgrade
AMZN +4.7% after Morgan Stanley named it a top pick ($350 target)
TSLA +3.6% two days before earnings
CLF +14.9% after a Q3 beat

The rally is building, and yields are rising with it.

Not financial advice. For information only.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

Meta and Tesla both report Wednesday after the close. Options are pricing about a 6.1% move for each.

Over their last 12 reports, Meta has moved 8.2% on average and Tesla 9.0%. Both beat the implied move 7 of 12 times.

History isn't a forecast, but it's the context for what the chain is charging. Not financial advice. For information only.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

Every TapeDash trade alert is logged with its entry, stop and every update, then graded on the actual option contract, not the stock.

Running record: 153 wins, 46 losses across 199 closed alerts (76.9%). Average win +44.9%, average loss -18.3%.

The losses stay on the board. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Not financial advice. For information only.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@unusual_whales Crude is already leaning that way: WTI is down about 1.3% near $97.70 after Friday's 2.6% jump to $99. A deal that eases supply risk would hit the energy names that led Friday, and help the rate-sensitive groups that lagged.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@unusual_whales The tension here: Apple is trading at a record high today while the channel checks soften. When the stock and the supply chain disagree this much, the next earnings report is where it gets settled.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@StockMKTNewz What options are charging for a few of these: Netflix about ±8.1%, GE ±5.2%, RTX ±4.4%, Meta and Tesla ±6.1% each. Over the last 12 reports, Meta and Tesla have both moved more than that on average.

[TapeDash | Research Desk @TapeDashHQ]

@bespokeinvest Day one of the next week is answering so far: Nasdaq up about 1.2% with VIX down ~12%. The harder part is the rest of the week, with Netflix Tuesday night and Meta and Tesla Wednesday night all landing inside that 5-day window.