2/5 - Morning Sessions
9:00 AM – Jason Sen(@daytradesignals), Founder Day Trade Ideas: Where the Money Is Moving: The Hottest Markets Right Now
9:30 AM – Mark Holstead (@TapeReadTrade), Founder, Traders Mastermind: The Gap Between Good and Great. And How To Close It.
10:00 AM – Ross Maxwell, Founder, Key Zone Traders: Inside the Trader’s Toolkit: Platforms, Setups & Daily Prep
10:30 AM – Daniel Martin (@CTI_Funding), Co-founder, City Traders Imperium: Get Funded. Stay Funded. Scale Up.
11:00 AM – Alexander Kriss (@onlyalexfx), Head of Operations, Tradeify Crypto: Crypto Trading Unlocked: Opportunity, Volatility & Risk
11:30 AM – Rajan Dhall, Owner, DND Capital: Mastering the Mind Game of Trading
I think we all need some good news with what else is going on in the world. Here is some: as of today, you can pre-order my new book
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$SLV $AGQ $SILVER
The morning opened with a clear regime shift.
Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. Warsh is widely viewed as a hard-money hawk. At the same time, a U.S. government shutdown was averted at the last minute.
Gold and silver had effectively been propping each other up over the past week. Silver looked vulnerable, but gold’s parabolic move prevented a breakdown, resulting instead in a double-top structure.
This setup has historical precedent, most notably in 2006 and 2011.
Quietly behind the scenes topping macro news added up: Greenland resolution, Tariff step back, FED chair hawk(ish)...
As the macro narrative flipped, the “chaos premium” and “debasement trade” evaporated almost instantly. This came on top of rising margin requirements and billions of dollars in call options being offered throughout the week.
With today being Friday, those call positions became trapped. Market makers were then able to delta-hedge back toward neutral by selling underlying shares.
That’s when the dominoes began to accelerate.
As silver broke below key whole-number levels, where the largest call strikes were concentrated, selling pressure increased exponentially. Billions of dollars in call options rapidly went to zero.
The selloff intensified into the 1:30 PM window, driven in part by the $AGQ rebalancing mechanism.
As a 2x leveraged ETF, AGQ must rebalance daily to maintain its leverage ratio. A 10% drop in silver leaves the fund over-leveraged, forcing it to sell futures into weakness.
The “Kill Zone” (1:00–1:25 PM ET) is where the mechanics turned brutal:
1:00 PM: Order cut-off
1:25 PM: NAV calculation
HFTs and authorized participants knew AGQ would be forced to unload significant volume. They front-ran the 1:25 PM window, stripping remaining liquidity.
Silver didn’t merely decline, it gapped through multiple support levels. Selling pressure peaked precisely at the 1:25 PM NAV print. Once the mechanical rebalancing was complete, price finally found a floor.
Feels like we might be approaching peak fear and safe-haven chasing. Gold and similar assets are surging on massive volume as investors flee to safety.
Whether we like it or not, the US needs Europe, not just as a major export market, but because maintaining the US dollar’s reserve status is non-negotiable.
If Europe and allies across the world stops buying US debt, we would see a massive, unsustainable spike in yields. Given the current US debt load, that is simply not an option in my view,
I expect Trump will pivot slighlty at Davos to calm the markets and more specifically the bond market.
In the end, I anticipate he will make two primary demands in regards to NATO/Greenland:
NATO Spending: A push for European members to significantly increase their defense spending, moving toward the 4–5% of GDP seen in the US, rather than the current 2% average.
Strategic Expansion: A requirement for more missile systems in Denmark and perhaps the establishment of new bases.
If this scenario plays out, consistent with previous tactical pivots/tacos, we could see these "fear proxies" reverse as stability returns.
@JBearTrades Hot key to hit the bid on a %, split the spread and sit on offer for a %.
Another hot key/macro to adjust unfilled up or down by x ticks.
Also consider a hot key to splash staggered small offers across several levels of bid/ask - useful for selling into exhaustion, buying flushes
We can train ourselves for greatness in the ways we pursue daily activities, and we can train our brains to help us perceive patterns in markets. Thanks to Traders Mastermind for this opportunity to share new trading psychology strategies: https://t.co/QAD0kCmOhx
🇺🇸The September FOMC Meeting Playbook 📽️-
Where does the balance of risk sit for tomorrow's FOMC meeting?
We explore the 5 focal points that could all get focus and influence markets - 25bp v 50bp, for me, the lasting reaction in markets comes from why they chose that outcome, the tone and level of concern or control, that will ultimately drive Treasuries, risk assets, gold and the USD.
#FOMC #USD #gold
His book “Pitbull” is one of my top 5 trading books. The way he trusted his own observations and pressed a simple bonds vs spoo edge was super cool to read.
Market Wizard Marty Schwartz lost money trading for 10 years. Then he turned $5,000 into $140,000 in one year and never looked back going on to be one of the best traders of his generation and a multi-millionaire.