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I agree. I would bet that 1 out of 100,000 or fewer traders in Topstep are actually profitable. Meaning that despite getting payouts, the cost to get them exceeds the return.
So back to per account analysis - if it's 3.4% of 12.5% that a single evan account gets to payout that is 0.4% of a new eval will get to payout. Meaning that from your perspective as a trader. This is 1/256. That would match anectodally some people saying they bought hundreds of evals before getting a payout and some social media influencers being on sim account # 8000 +
So if 99.6% of evals never complete the journey and do not get a payout, and 0.4% do, this raises the second question of - how many of them in that 0.4% who get a payout are net green, I'd assume a huge majority of them are net negative judging by social media of many people saying "I get payouts but still am not profitable"
My theory is that almost nobody even in that 0.4% is actually profitable from the endeavor. Buying hundreds and activations totalling hundreds each, to get a payout of $5k one out of <=256 of your purchases... the 13% odds you quoted is true, but that is because the brute force nature of 13% of people buy hundreds of these things to get that one payout
I'd bet money that 1 out of 10,000 or even 1 out of 100,000 people are even profitable in a prop firm. Because you never hear anyone on socials... and I mean ANYONE despite this "13%" odds documenting an actual journey of "Look how much I NET profit from this firm"
@SellingRips Gotta be C. The Fresh Prince says always guess C but this trader is more chill and just needs to be a little more chill when they lose their cool. Dab.