TechDev

Entrepreneur | #Bitcoins and crypto analysis

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Unpopular opinion:

The first macro cycle since 2020 may finally be starting.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

This does not mean the pico bottom is in. https://t.co/tWybrJlBtA

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

The Breakdown Begins: A Two-Trade Path to 10x by Year’s End
https://t.co/tWybrJlBtA

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

The Final Leg Unfolds: Confluence, Trades, and The Business Cycle

https://t.co/cV8DPVuSzT

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Your definition of "the cycle" may need to change.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

The Final Leg: How to Play It

https://t.co/tlDdBH10vk

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Why what most call "the cycle" has yet to start. Still. https://t.co/qcopO5x4gY

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Correction not over.

But neither is the cycle.

Unless you’re one of the trolls who hasn’t even read my full content, you know we’ve been tracking this ETH move since November.

Here’s what the near term is looking like…https://t.co/AlRWuBjgo4

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

#Bitcoin sure looks to be building a macro parabola.

Question is whether this one will be steeper like late 2020, or shallower like early 2016.

Not a bad position for macro investors.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

#Bitcoin’s impulse out of an expanded flat:

#6 flipped #4 to support with a multi-engulfing candle off the 20 and 50 EMAs as the former crossed above the latter.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Discussed in this week’s issue along with alternate scenarios in part 1, and an altcoin market assessment in part 2.

Sub-link in bio.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Today, #Bitcoin’s 20W MA crossed above its 200W for the first time ever.

Could mean nothing. Just worth noting.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

We are apparently at the part where the ones who were wrong in 2021 because “the cycle”, are now certain of no new ATHs for years because “the cycle”.

I used to be one. I remember when my belief in a predictable 4-year heartbeat of blow-off tops that would make everyone rich, made me allergic to other interpretations.

Perhaps we are in the same macro impulse wave that began in 2019, and are seeing a similar early structure to the current sub-impulse as we did with the last (late 2020).

Or perhaps the 4 year cycle (closer to 3.5 years) if there is one, is driven by liquidity, not the halving. Perhaps we are in the early stages of a parabolic leg, similar to late 2015/2016, and those who can’t look before 2019, won’t get “one more big dip”.

If the last 2 years have taught me anything, it’s that history much more rhymes than repeats, but that rhyming can happen cross asset. #Bitcoin in my opinion, at this stage, is a speculative asset, subject to the same forces that drive any other. Be careful of blind devotion to a special “cycle” with its own set of rules. Especially ones that are supposedly easy to follow. The market never makes it easy.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Next we'll find out if July 2023 ≈ Nov 2020. #Bitcoin

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Short term traders try to beat the market.

Long term investors try to beat themselves.

Especially if you’re the latter, stepping away from the week-to-week, even month-to-month noise may be one of the best things you can do to ease the battle.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Third #Bitcoin 3W supertrend / 20 MA squeeze beginning to resolve.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Funny where narratives emerge on charts isn’t it?

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Nice when a weekly candle tries to engulf the last 9. #Bitcoin

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

#Bitcoin’s 20 EMA has crossed above the 50, as price retested them and the prior swing high.

A familiar setup coming out of an expanded flat.